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With a market cap of $49.7 billion, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is a leading property-casualty insurer and the largest publicly held personal lines carrier in the U.S., offering a variety of insurance and investment products. Based in Northbrook, Illinois, it operates across multiple segments and distributes its products through agents, call centers, retailers, and digital platforms.
The insurance giant's shares have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. ALL has increased 16.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 22.3%. Moreover, shares of ALL are down 2.7% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s nearly 4% gain.
In addition, Allstate has also lagged behind the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) 32.5% return over the past 52 weeks and a 7.2% YTD gain.
The Allstate Corporation reported strong Q4 2024 financial performance on Feb. 5. The insurer reported an adjusted net income of $7.67 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate and marking a nearly 32% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by an 8.8% rise in consolidated premiums to $15.1 billion and a 46.2% surge in net investment income to $833 million, attributed to higher returns from fixed-income securities and improved performance-based results.
However, the stock fell marginally the next day as investors reacted to slightly missed revenue estimates, concerns over rising costs with total expenses increasing 8.1% year over year to $14 billion, and elevated catastrophe losses reaching $410 million.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect ALL’s EPS to grow 1.8% year-over-year to $18.65. The company’s earnings surprise history is promising. It beat the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 20 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 16 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” one “Hold,” and two “Strong Sells.”
This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago, with 15 “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.
On Feb. 10, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised Allstate’s price target to $240 and increased its 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates, citing higher net investment income and lower core loss ratios. Despite $1.7 billion in Q1 2025 catastrophe losses, analysts maintained an “Outperform” rating, expecting long-term earnings growth.
As of writing, ALL is trading below the mean price target of $225.67. The Street-high price target of $279 implies a potential upside of 48.7% from the current price levels.
