Grocery store food prices increased 1.3% from September 2023 to September 2024.[1] That was less than the increase of 2.4% for commodities such as gasoline, utilities, consumer goods, apparel, medical services. It was also lower than the 2% FED inflation target, which is a long-term inflation target that aims to foster stable economic development.
However, you may have deeply felt price changes depending on the meals you’re putting on your table.
Which groceries cost more than a year ago?
Out of nine grocery staples defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics[2], the cost of a dozen eggs increased the most over last year, from $2.06 to $3.82, up 85.0%.
Other grocery staples that cost more this year include beef, chicken, tomatoes, whole milk, and bread. Beef, chicken, tomatoes, and whole milk increased more than the 1.3% average for groceries. Beef prices increased the most (11.0%), then tomatoes (5.0%), chicken (4.1%), whole milk (1.4%), and bread (0.2%).
Which groceries cost less than a year ago?
Bananas, cheese, and potatoes are all cheaper than a year prior. Potatoes decreased 3.6%, cheese decreased 2.0%, and bananas decreased 0.2%.
In that same time, fruits and vegetables increased 0.9%, and dairy increased 0.1%.
Why are grocery prices so high?
Several factors affect food prices, such as:
- Supply chain challenges, including those related to COVID-19 and global relations such as the war in Ukraine
- Inflation
- Higher labor and transportation costs
- Animal disease, such as the avian flu in 2022 which impacted egg and chicken prices
- Extreme weather events which damage crops and affect animals
The USDA expects grocery store prices to increase 1.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. Although the federal government can take indirect action to help manage grocery prices, it does not have a direct say in controlling price increases.
How have grocery prices changed over time?
Grocery prices have been rising for more than just the previous year. Food prices increased 11% from 2021 to 2022, the largest annual increase in 40 years.
Since August 2004, the biggest year-over-year increase in grocery prices was in August 2022, when grocery prices were 13.5% higher than the year prior, in August 2021.
In that same timeframe, the biggest decrease was in November 2009, when grocery prices were 2.9% lower than in November 2008.
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[1] Prices are unadjusted.
[2] Sample of grocery staples as defined by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Staple prices are the average price among US cities and are not seasonally adjusted. Beef is ground beef, 100% beef, per lb. (453.6 grams). Chicken is fresh, whole, per lb. Potatoes are white, per lb. Tomatoes are field-grown, per lb. Bananas are per lb. Cheddar cheese is natural, per lb. Milk is fresh, whole, fortified, per gallon (3.8 liters). Eggs are grade A, large, per dozen.
