Tesla shares moved higher again in early Wednesday trading, extending the stock's spring and summer surge to around $275 billion, as analysts raced to reset their ratings and price targets on the EV maker following its surprise second quarter sales performance.
Tesla (TSLA) shares have soared more than 68% since their late-April lows, powered in part by CEO Elon Musk's renewed focus on the group's self-driving and AI ambitions and a key investor vote that approved his delayed $56 billion pay deal.
Musk also plans to unveil the group's robotaxi prototype at an August 8 event, as the group pivots from its traditional carmaking roots to a broader business model lead by autonomous driving, energy storage and next-generation robotics.
In the meantime, a better-than-expected tally of second quarter vehicle deliveries, published yesterday, assuaged investor concerns that a slump in EV demand and the ongoing global price war would both eat into Tesla's sales and further reduce its already-narrowing profit margins.
Tesla shifted around 444,000 cars over the three months ended in June, topping Wall Street forecasts despite a near 25% slump in overall China sales and continuing weaker demand in Europe.
Tesla delivered 422,405 units of its Model 3 sedan and Model Y midsize SUV, as well as 21,551 units of its higher-priced Model S sedan and Model X full-size SUV, the report indicated.
Production fell 14.3% to 410,831 vehicles, thanks in part to tight supply chains and closures at its Gigafactory in Berlin. Model 3/Y production was pegged at 386,576 units with Model S/X and "other model" output at 24,255 units.
Wedbush sees Tesla 'turning point'
JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, however, noted that overall deliveries were around 22% lower than the Wall Street consensus at the beginning of the year and suggested that Tesla likely "lost ground vs. the total auto industry" over the first half.
Brinkman and his team reiterated their $115 price target and 'underweight' rating following Tesla's second-quarter update on Tuesday.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who boosted his Tesla price target by $25 to $300 a share, said the Q2 delivery figures were a "major turning point" in his bull case for the stock. He sees the shares rising as high as $400.
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"The key for Tesla's stock is [Wall Street] recognizing that Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market ... with a historical Robotaxi Day ahead for Musk and Tesla on Aug. 8 that will lay the yellow brick road to [Full-Self-Driving] and an autonomous future," Ives said.
"Ultimately the key to reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation is the autonomous and Full-Self-Driving vision taking hold for Tesla, which appears to be inflecting with this latest FSD v12.4 and now China FSD testing underway," he added.
Tesla: Energy-storage records
Canaccord Genuity analyst Gregory Francfort also stressed the importance of self-driving technologies in Tesla's growth story. He describes himself and his team as "autonomy uber-bulls," in a note that lifted their Tesla price target by $32 to $254 a share.
"Despite the system's current state, we believe autonomy is the future," Francfort said. "Our optimism is backed by potential margin upside with FSD, energy-storage growth, and increased earnings-per-share estimates for 2026 from $8.55 to $9.06."
"We're increasing our valuation multiple to about 28 times from about 26 times, reflecting higher conviction in Tesla's growth prospects and additional growth drivers," he added. "Tesla’s upcoming earnings report on July 23 will be crucial, especially regarding FSD take rates."
CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson, who lifted his Tesla price target by $20 to $250 a share following yesterday's delivery release, thinks energy storage might be the hidden gem in the company's growth.
Related: Tesla Q2 deliveries surprise sends stock soaring despite China slump
Alongside its EV sales data, Tesla said Tuesday that it had deployed around 9.4 gigawatt hours of energy-storage products over the three months ended in June. That figure was more than double the record tally of 4.1 GWh reported over the first three months of the year.
"While that segment is still a small percentage of the Tesla story, the growth that they've been talking about for a long time is really starting to show up in the numbers," Nelson told CNBC.
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He added in a note published late Tuesday that "Musk has successfully shifted investor focus to long-term opportunities in AI, robotics, energy storage, and other business lines, diverting attention away from near-term challenges." This likely means that the August 8 event will have more impact for the stock than yesterday's delivery tally or the Q2 earnings report on July 23.
Tesla shares were marked 7.3% higher in early Wednesday trading to change hands at $248.27, the highest in more than six months and a move would trim the stock's 2024 decline to just 0.1%.
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