Amgen stock gapped up Tuesday after the company issued bullish guidance for 2030, though investors were split on whether it's achievable.
The biotech company expects sales to grow at a mid single-digit percentage and for adjusted earnings to increase by a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage — both on a compounded annual basis.
By that math, Amgen's 2030 sales would top $35 billion and profit would come in north of $30 per share, Mizuho Securities analyst Salim Syed said in a report to clients. The estimate was well above analysts' call for $25 billion and $20 per share, respectively.
In a Mizuho survey Tuesday, 92% of investors didn't believe Amgen would meet those projections. Still, on today's stock market, Amgen stock soared 7.8% to 241.01.
Amgen Stock: 2022 Guidance Light
Despite the bullish outlook for 2030, Amgen issued lighter-than-expected guidance for 2022.
This year, the company expects to earn $17-$18 per share, minus some items on $25.4 billion to $26.5 billion in sales. At the midpoint, the earnings guidance missed Amgen stock analysts' forecast for $17.67. The top of Amgen's sales outlook lagged views for $26.92 billion.
The guidance follows fourth-quarter sales that roared higher — but missed projections — late Monday.
During the fourth quarter, Amgen earned $4.36 per share, minus some items, on $6.85 billion in sales. Earnings rocketed 26% and easily beat expectations for $4.04 per share. But sales rose just 3%, not enough to beat projections for $6.87 billion.
The best growth came from Amgen's Evenity, an osteoporosis treatment. Sales surged 59% year over year to $143 million.
But sales from Amgen's biggest moneymaker, Enbrel, declined 13% to $1.11 billion. Enbrel treats autoimmune conditions. Amgen blamed lower net selling price and lower inventory for the dip. It also noted another of its own drugs, Otezla, gained Food and Drug Administration approval for plaque psoriasis, chipping away at Enbrel sales.
Prolia, Repatha Climb Higher
Among Amgen's bigger products, sales of osteoporosis treatment Prolia rose 17% to $873 million and revenue from cholesterol treatment Repatha inched 8% ahead to $273 million. But Aimovig, its migraine prevention drug, brought in just $90 million, falling 13% year over year.
Meanwhile, sales of bone marrow-stimulating drugs Neulasta and Neupogen tumbled 35% and 33%, respectively. Both are facing off against biosimilar competition.
Amgen stock is now well above its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSmith.com.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
