Valued at a market cap of almost $87.4 billion, Altria Group, Inc. (MO) manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products. The Richmond, Virginia-based company offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and snus products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand, and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand.
This tobacco giant’s shares have outpaced the broader market over the past 52 weeks. MO has soared 27.4% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 23.3%. However, over the past six months, the stock is up just 2%, compared to SPX’s 11.7% rise.
Zooming in further, Altria has outpaced the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLP) 8.5% gain over the past 52 weeks but has slightly lagged behind XLP’s 2.2% return on a six-month basis.
On Jan. 30, shares of MO plunged 2.1% after its Q4 earnings release despite delivering better-than-expected Q4 adjusted earnings of $1.29 per share and revenues of almost $6 billion. Moreover, the bottom line advanced 9.3% from the year-ago quarter, while the top line remained almost unchanged year-over-year. The decline in net revenues from the smokeable products segment and the all-other category was nearly offset by growth in net revenues from the oral tobacco products segment.
The oral tobacco category’s shipment volume increased by a notable 15.3% year over year. However, cigarette sales continued to decline, with volumes falling 8.8%. But, what primarily disappointed the investors was the company’s full-year 2025 guidance. Management expects MO’s adjusted EPS to grow 2% to 5%, reaching $5.22 to $5.37, which came in below analysts' expectations of $5.35.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect Altria’s EPS to grow 4.5% year over year to $5.35. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It topped the Wall Street estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing on two other occasions.
Among the 11 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold,” which is based on four “Strong Buy,” five “Hold,” and two “Strong Sell” ratings.
This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago, with three analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Jan. 31, BofA Securities maintained a “Buy” rating on Altria but lowered its price target to $61, which indicates an 18.4% potential upside from the current levels.
The mean price target of $54.33 represents a 5.4% upside from MO’s current price levels, while the Street-high price target of $65 suggests an upside potential of 26.1%.
