The regular season is drawing to a close, and you filled up the mailbag, as I expected, on a variety of topics. Here’s what we’ve got …
From Eli Tilen (@elijts): Do you think the Dolphins extend Tua in the offseason or do they play him on his fifth year contract?
Eli, I think the Miami Dolphins will work with Tua Tagovailoa to get a long-term deal done.
It’s time to pay attention to Miami’s actions, and Tagovailoa’s numbers on this front.
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
Everything that the team has done since firing Brian Flores after the 2021 season has been aimed at maximizing Tagovailoa as a player. Hiring Mike McDaniel. Trading for Tyreek Hill. Signing Terron Armstead. Picking up Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option. Every single action—and all the Dolphins have said, too—has backed the notion that they want Tagovailoa to prosper and be in Miami for a long time.
And he’s responded. Through last year’s concussion-marred campaign, Tagovailoa completed 64.8% of his passes for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight picks—despite missing four games. This year, through 16 games, he’s completed 69.6% of his passes for 4,451 yards, 28 touchdowns and 12 picks. His passer rating last year was 105.5; this year, it’s 103.0. And the Dolphins are going to the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in more than 20 years.
So I don’t know whether the Dolphins will give Tagovailoa what Joe Burrow got in Cincinnati. But I’d bet they’re comfortable paying him what a franchise quarterback goes for these days.
From Gregory Charles (@Gfein40): Patriots look at Jim Harbaugh to replace Bill?
Gregory, let me start here—I think Jim Harbaugh would be a good hire for most NFL teams.
The Patriots are one of those. Whether New England’s a fit for him is a different question, though, especially if Harbaugh has multiple options. And the best way to explain what I mean here is to go back to the Bill Parcells comparison I’ve used for Harbaugh.
The basis of that comp is that Harbaugh, like Parcells, comes into a new place and shakes it up immediately, gets results quickly and creates a very distinct identity, one that’s followed him everywhere he’s gone. Now, is he going to be your coach for 10 years? Maybe not. He’s 60 and he runs hot. But if he can win close to 70% of his games, which is what happened in San Francisco, then, well, most folks would sign up for that.
The problem for a team such as New England is the runway necessary to create a winner. I think the ideal situation for Harbaugh would be going to a veteran team that may have underachieved a bit (Los Angeles Chargers?), rather than one needing a multiyear rebuild. So in that way, I’d say the Patriots should be looking more for their own Dan Campbell or Kyle Shanahan (younger guys who committed to such rebuilds) than a version of Parcells.
That’s my take on it.
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From Michael Manix (@theomanix): Can you preview the NCAA championship game from a “These players will definitely be playing on Sundays” point of view? First- and second-rounder types….
Michael, yes, I think you can start with Washington receiver Rome Odunze, who checks about every box and will be vying with LSU’s Malik Nabers and Florida State’s Keon Coleman to be the first receiver taken after Ohio State supernova Marvin Harrison Jr. He probably goes in the top half of the first round, and left tackle Troy Fautanu, the anchor of the Huskies’ Joe Moore Award–winning offensive line, could sneak into that range as well.
After that, you’ve got the quarterbacks, and both are wild cards. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy has competitiveness, arm strength and athleticism, but isn’t overly big, and has run a little hot and cold over the course of his career, with the Wolverines never really leaning on him to carry the team. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. has been that guy for the Huskies, but has a long, funky left-handed delivery and a very long injury history. I think McCarthy goes before Penix, but there are a lot of questions for both to answer.
After that, I think somewhere on Day 2, you see Michigan defenders Kris Jenkins, Mike Sainristil and Junior Colson, and receiver Roman Wilson come off the board. In that range, you’ll probably also see Huskies edge rushers Bralen Trice, as well as the receivers not named Odunze (Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan), if they declare. And I do believe you’ll see a whole host of Wolverines selected on Day 3, which will showcase this Michigan team’s depth.
From Cuse Kyle (@kylecuse315): If the Jaguars miss the playoffs, could there be changes in the front office or coaching staff?
Cuse, two things to get to on Doug Pederson’s history on this question. One, he’s always had quarterback infrastructure on his staff. Upon his arrival in 2022, he had Press Taylor as his offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter as pass-game coordinator and Mike McCoy as quarterbacks coach. He lost Cooter to the Colts in ’23, and replaced him with UNLV OC Nick Holz. Two, Pederson’s always been tremendously loyal to his coaches.
Now, all of that is the backdrop to address the trajectory of franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who hasn’t had the breakthrough year that so many (present company included) projected. Does Pederson make changes if things flame out Sunday to get more out of Lawrence? His history says no. But with Lawrence a week away from being eligible for a blockbuster extension, there could be pressure from above to do something.
And when it comes to that front office, remember, Pederson and Trent Baalke were an arranged pairing—Baalke worked under Dave Caldwell when Doug Marrone was coach, and was Urban Meyer’s GM in 2021. So it certainly stands to reason that there could be at least some tweaking on the personnel side, too.
From Ship (@TheMrClucks): Any news on what Joe Flacco will expect money wise and if he has interest in backing up Deshaun Watson next year?
Ship, the best comp for Flacco right now might be Jacoby Brissett—and not because Brissett is as accomplished as Flacco, but more because it’s hard to find the sweet spot financially for a quarterback with Flacco’s profile. So as a bridge type of guy at 38 years old, it’s fair to say he’d be worth $10 million per year. Especially if he’s willing to play two years, and I’ve been told his intention is to play through 2025.
Of course, all of that could change relatively significantly if Flacco goes on a run in the playoffs.
But for now, the way this is playing out, sets up in a way that illustrates why Flacco handled the past month the way he did. He’s in a good situation and didn’t move from Cleveland when given the chance—two teams tried to sign him off the Browns’ practice squad. He also chose not to do a multiyear deal, knowing Cleveland has Deshaun Watson coming back next year. And now it looks like leaving his options will pay off.
Junfu Han/The Detroit Free Press/USA TODAY Network
From Greg (@panther1gb89): Are the Panthers locked in on Ben Johnson for HC, or are there more options?
Greg, I think Ben Johnson is a strong candidate there, but I don’t for a minute believe this thing is over. Despite his absurd actions over the weekend, Carolina owner David Tepper has learned some things from stumbling around during his first six years in charge.
On the coaching front, it’s to not focus on checking one box off—whether it’s trying to find a coach who can call an offense, or win a room over, or develop a quarterback. So this time around, it sure sounds like Tepper will be trying to check eight or 10 or 12 boxes with his hire, rather than just one.
That, of course, isn’t what drew him to Johnson a year ago. It also doesn’t mean Johnson won’t check every box and get a bunch of money from Tepper, and it might take that to get a coach with options to go to Carolina. It’s just that he’ll have to win a different race this time around.
From Lennon theus (@broncolen30): Do the Broncos go for a QB in the first round of the draft with their pick?
Lennon, the Broncos right now project to have the 14th pick, putting them out of range to get Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and almost certainly Jayden Daniels. And once you get past the first group, with guys such as McCarthy, Penix and Oregon’s Bo Nix, this becomes very much a beauty-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder quarterback class.
The good news, if you’re a Broncos fan, is you have Sean Payton to pick through that, and he’s pretty good with this stuff. In 2017, he was smitten with Texas Tech phenom Patrick Mahomes, and failed to land him only when the Chiefs jumped one spot ahead of him in the draft order. Word was the year after that he really liked Baker Mayfield from the jump, before Mayfield made his meteoric rise to become the first pick.
If you can get a Mahomes-type of quarterback in the middle of the first round, then obviously that’d be like finding a winning lottery ticket. If you get a Mayfield there, considering Payton will be the one coaching him, that’s pretty good, too. And if Denver decides there isn’t one worth taking in that range, then I’d trust Payton’s judgment on that as well.
From RealJimmyT (@slimjimisfunny): What do you expect the Giants to do in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL draft? Will they look to trade up and could they perhaps select a QB?
Jimmy, the Giants right now project into top five, and this is a draft loaded with top-end talent, so you’re in a really nice spot if you’re GM Joe Schoen. I’d presume, with Andrew Thomas paid and Evan Neal developing, the Giants don’t take Penn State LT Olu Fashanu or Notre Dame LT Joe Alt that high. But if you want a pass rusher to put opposite Kayvon Thibodeaux, Alabama’s Dallas Turner or Florida State’s Jared Verse could fit the bill. And if you want a receiver, it probably won’t be Harrison, but could be Odunze, Verse or Coleman.
Then, of course, there’s the quarterback question. And because the Giants have Daniel Jones signed for the next three years, but guaranteed through only 2024, they have the flexibility to take one if they fall in love with one, without having a pressing need to the point where they force something that’s not there.
So, yeah, the Giants have a chance to get better there.
Kevin R. Wexler/The Record/USA TODAY Network
From Tyler Green (@TylerGreennnn): Who will be the HC of the Raiders? And how do they address the QB position?
Tyler, I’ve heard that Mark Davis may have a big swing in him. And if that swing doesn’t connect, there’s a good chance he sticks with Antonio Pierce.
Who’s the big swing? Well, Davis did try to hire Jim Harbaugh before Harbaugh returned to his alma mater in 2015. And Davis’s dad, Al, had a strong relationship with Belichick back in the day. If he does stick with Pierce, there’s a narrative supporting that, too, in that, as I understand it, Davis had some regrets over not giving Rich Bisaccia the job after he navigated a very difficult ’21 season, and got the Raiders to the playoffs as interim coach.
The quarterback question is a little murkier, I’d say, until we know the coach. But it wouldn’t be out of the question for whoever the new coach is to try to lean into what’s on hand in Las Vegas now, and try to get someone such as Kirk Cousins in an effort to win now. I could see Pierce being good with that, and you’d think a coach such as Belichick or Harbaugh would be, too.
From The BillDozer (@KOTBill11): Let’s say the Bears trade down from the No. 1 pick. Who do you think is most likely to move up, and what sort of package would the Bears seek from that team? Second question: If Flacco leads the Browns deep into the playoffs, do you think he is a HOF–level QB? Or Hall of Really Good?
Bill, first question, and this isn’t a cop-out: It depends on how far down you’re asking the Chicago Bears to move. If they’re just going down two spots, and can still get Harrison, they’ll still get next year’s first-rounder from that team, but maybe it’s just Day 2 picks on top of that. If you’re talking about going to the bottom half of the top 10, now you’re talking about a package that includes, or equates to (like Carolina’s did last year) three first-rounders.
Second question: I think it’s going to be tough for Flacco to get in the Hall of Fame, regardless of what happens (absent a Super Bowl win), because of who he’d be up against at his own position. Does he have a better case than Matthew Stafford? Would you put him in over Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger or Philip Rivers? How about his draft classmate, Matt Ryan? Or Russell Wilson? Because of that, I can’t see a scenario where Flacco gets in.
From Chiefs Focus (@ChiefsFocus): Have you heard anything about the officiating situation in the NFL?
Chiefs, that stuff will be discussed in competition committee meetings at the combine and the owners meetings in March. My guess would be you might see rules changes, but not fundamental shifts in the way games are officiated.
By now, you should know where I stand on it. I think having a sky judge, or a couple of empowered guys in the booth dedicated to getting calls right is the way to go. But the NFL hasn’t shown any real appetite for beefing up the way it staffs crews for games, so it’s hard for me to sit here and tell you this is the year something happens. Sorry about that.
