All eyes will be on how the Packers’ pass defense responds against Carolina, but what Green Bay can’t let happen is the Panthers getting things going in the ground game.
Carolina is 2-12 and averaging just 14.7 points per game. However, despite frequently playing from behind, and often by multiple scores, they still rank right around league average in rush attempts per game–showing their commitment to it.
“I see a team that competes at a high level,” said Matt LaFleur of this Panthers team, “in terms of, when you watch the tape, there is a lot of fight in them. No matter what the score. That’s evident. It shows on their tape, and you can always see it.
“It was pretty evident last week (against Atlanta). They’re playing a team that right at the front of their division and they end up knocking them off. I’m pretty sure we are going to get their best shot this weekend.”
The Panthers’ run game hasn’t been overly dominant by any means this season. In fact, by raw numbers, they are below average, ranking 24th through 14 games at 3.9 yards per attempt.
But, again, there is something to be said for sticking to it. In the last three games, lead back Chuba Hubbard has recorded 104 rushing yards and 87 yards twice. His 3.9 yards per rush this season don’t leap off the stat sheet, but he’s been dynamic with the ball, ranking 20th in missed tackles forced and 21st in rushes of 10 or more yards out of 61 eligible running backs.
It’s been a disappointing two weeks for the Packers, but this is absolutely a game they should win. But one great way to let an opponent hang around is by allowing them to find success in the run game, which equates to long drives and controlling the time of possession.
The 4.6 yards per attempt that the Packers’ defense is surrendering this season is the fifth-most in football. Green Bay has allowed four games this season in which their opponent has eclipsed the 200-yard rushing mark. Naturally, in the quarters coverage scheme Joe Barry utilizes, the run game is an area of weakness with an unaccounted-for gap at the line of scrimmage. Missed tackles, not getting off blocks, and poor gap integrity have also contributed to the run game woes.
“I’m a firm believer everything starts top-down,” said Joe Barry on Thursday. “So everything starts with me. So when things aren’t proper it’s my job to get it right. Now it is frustrating, you’d think at this point things would be running smoothly, but there’s a lot of things that take place in an NFL football game.
“There are so many subtle nuances that have to take place on every single play, with all 11 players. But that’s part of my title as the coordinator—to get it coordinated. And when it doesn’t go right, it is on me and it’s my job to get it done.”
For much of the game against New York, Green Bay did bottle up Saquon Barkley, holding him to fewer than 2.5 yards per rush until those final drives. Tampa Bay would average only 3.7 yards per carry as a team. Unfortunately, breakdowns elsewhere, specifically in the passing game and not being able to contain Tommy DeVito, resulted in poor overall performances from the Green Bay defense.
Potentially making matters more difficult in this regard, TJ Slaton is listed as questionable with a knee injury after being a limited participant in practice all three days this week. Slaton has been the Packers’ early down run defender specialist, ranking first on the team in run stops and second in run defense tackles.
Without Slaton, Green Bay will have to rely more heavily on Devonte Wyatt, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks, or some combination of the three to help shoulder those run defense snaps with Kenny Clark. All three have been very inconsistent against the run. If the team is without Slaton, you can also expect Jonathan Ford to be elevated from the practice squad to help fill that role in the middle as well.
It sounds counterintuitive to say, given how the last two games have gone, especially the Bucs’ matchup, but the Packers need to contain Hubbard and put the playmaking burden on Bryce Young and the Carolina passing game. Young enters Sunday’s game averaging a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt while having only one game with a passer rating over 100.0 and just four games with more than 200 passing yards.
