NEW YORK CITY - New York voters will be heading to the poll Tuesday for the state's primary election. As the Empire State gears up to vote again, Latino turnout is expected to increase significantly, a recently published study by the NALEO Educational Fund shows.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are not facing any major challengers after securing enough delegates to win their parties' nominations at the conventions this summer. Connecticut, Rhode Island and Wisconsin will also be holding presidential primaries on Tuesday.
Although the candidates are set, New York's contest will provide a deeper look into an electorate whose state has been the focus over the past year due to an unprecedented migrant influx. In less than two years, more than 175,000 migrants have made their way to New York from the southern border.
One million New York Latinos are projected to cast their ballot this November, an increase of 12.4% from 2020 and 13.1% from 2016, according to the study by NALEO. Similarly, the Latino share of all New York voters in 2024 is expected to be 11.7%, which mirrors the demographic's share in 2020 and 2016.
"Latino voters in the Empire State are set to cast their ballots and break new turnout records for this year's Presidential Election," Arturo Vargas, NALEO Educational Fund CEO, said.
When it comes to party affiliations, a relatively similar share of Latinos (27%) and non-Latinos (29%) are not affiliated with either major political party. Nevertheless, Latinos are more likely to be Democrats than non-Latinos, with 65% of Latinos affiliating with the Democratic Party, compared to 46% of non-Latinos.
These numbers come after several studies in the past year show former President Trump steadily gaining support with the Latino electorate ahead of the 2024 election as President Biden's approval ratings decline.
But the Presidential race is not the only one New Yorkers will be looking at this November.
In the 4th Congressional District, Latino incumbent Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, a Republican, will likely face former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, a Democrat, in one of the most competitive general races in the nation. This race is expected to be among the few that will determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Gillen could be poised for a rematch with D'Esposito. With Biden likely to easily carry New York in November, D'Esposito will have to rely on a relatively high amount of split-ticket voters as he did two years ago to win a second term, The Hill reports.
The Empire State has been a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections since at least 1988, with the Democratic candidates' margins of victory ranging from 4% to 29%. President Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to win the state in 1984.
But despite its history of constantly winning, the Democratic party will still have to address their Latino electorate in order to maintain its victory in November, NALEO argues. New York's population is among the highest in the nation. Hence, the increasing diversity of the state's electorate is a trend that bears watching when assessing the impact of New York's Latino vote on the 2024 election, NALEO explains.
"With the state being home to the country's largest Dominican, and Ecuadorian populations, as well as the second-largest population of Puerto Ricans living on the U.S. mainland and Colombians," Vargas said. "Voter outreach and engagement that consider these factors will be critical and likely help determine the outcome of the state's primary and general election contests."
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