2023 has been a brutal year for NFL head coaches. Three have already been fired. It’s not yet Christmas.
Brandon Staley was the latest play caller to wind up on the pavers after the Los Angeles Chargers decided giving up 42 first half points to Aidan O’Connell was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Staley’s tenure in LA ended with a 24-24 regular season record, one epic playoff collapse and the unshakeable imprint of a man who perpetually found the exact wrong way to do the right thing.
He won’t be the last. Black Monday, the day after the regular season concludes, is waiting to snatch more souls. It’s possible a quarter of the 32-team league winds up in the market for new full-time head coaches come January. It’s a near certaintly at least two more are on their way out.
Let’s take a look at the most likely candidates, ranging from “Probably won’t get fired but I could see it” to “Oh yeah, he’s done here.”
5
Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Falcons owner Arthur Blank doesn’t want to fire his head coach. He’s allowed multiple reports to slip out that Smith will get another year on the sideline barring collapse, even despite three uneven years at the helm.
But, brother, collapse is at the door and knows Smith is home because he’s casting a shadow over the peep hole. That’s the impact of losing to the Carolina Panthers.
I’m sorry, that sentence needs more context.
That’s the impact of losing to the then 1-12 Carolina Panthers, on a day where empty seats vastly outnumbered Carolina fans, in the midst of a rainstorm that theoretically benefitted Smith’s run-heavy offense, in a game where rookie top 10 draft pick Bijan Robinson had eight total touches and quarterback Desmond Ridder threw a red zone interception to cap a fourth quarter drive that could have effectively iced the game.
Phew. That’s the kind of thing that leads to chilly non-endorsements like this:
“As is his custom, (Arthur) Blank attended (Arthur) Smith’s news conference. He did not look up much at Smith as he spoke at the podium…After ….@ksugiuraajc asked Blank if he had a minute. He respectfully declined, saying “This is not a good time.” https://t.co/hNc4xMlK6u
— D. Orlando Ledbetter (@DOrlandoAJC) December 18, 2023
This failure isn’t solely on Smith’s offense. His defense allowed a seven-plus minute game-winning field goal drive that began at the Panthers’ five-yard line. It’s fair to say everything is a dumb sloppy mess in Atlanta. While that’s a fine and staid tradition for the Falcons, the franchise would really prefer it weren’t.
Anyway, Smith is 6-8 this season and 20-28 in nearly three seasons on the sideline. He’s an offensive savant who currently ranks 26th in the NFL in points scored for the second time in his career. He has three different top 10 draft picks at his skill positions and his offense is roughly as effective as the Washington Commanders, who have none.
This is all borderline embarrassing, and that still may not be enough to get him fired! Yeesh.
4
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
There was always an expiration date on Vrabel’s counter-culture, throwback style of grind-em-out offensive football. And that date was printed in bold letters in Week 15.
That’s when Derrick Henry, long the engine of a clock-draining, high-efficiency run game, managed to gain just 10 yards on 20 touches (nine rushing, one receiving). That led to an overtime loss against Case Keenum and the Houston Texans (while blowing a fourth quarter lead) and the official end to Tennessee’s scant playoff hopes. For the second straight year, the postseason will go on without the Titans despite a relatively weak AFC South.
Vrabel is 5-16 in his last 21 games. He wrapped up 2022 with seven straight losses to miss the postseason. His offense remains anemic and his defense mostly below average. He hasn’t won a playoff game since 2019’s unexpected run to the AFC title game. Respected though he may be, the results haven’t been there.
A house cleaning makes sense in Nashville. Quarterback Will Levis has been useful in stretches and forgettable much more often. Would the Titans jump at the chance to hire an offensive-minded head coach in hopes of pushing Levis to meet his potential? Or would Vrabel’s history allow one more shot at turning things around, despite the continued inundation of losses that suggest a major change is necessary?
3
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Belichick is acutely aware this season has been a disaster. His 11 losses ties a career high and he’s still got three games left to play. If he’s able to apply the same awareness to himself as he has to the Patriots’ roster the last two decades, he knows his job is in jeopardy.
Things would have to deteriorate massively between Belichick and team owner Robert Kraft for the legendary head coach to be fired. But Kraft could not-so-subtlely point the eight-time Super Bowl winner toward retirement while quietly entertaining trade offers from needy teams (there are a few!). Belichick turns 72 years old in April and is the league’s second-oldest coach behind Pete Carroll. It’s possible a life after football looms.
On the other hand, Belichick remains a capable Xs and Os coach. He’s once again made New England’s defense one of the league’s better units despite the absence of stars Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon. The Patriots have only given up 71 points in their last six games.
Of course, they only have one win to show for that because the team’s personnel director has been a disaster, botching draft picks and free agent signings on a regular basis over the past five years to craft a team with little reliable talent. He’d make a feasible scapegoat for a lost season but, oops, turns out he’s Bill Belichick.
There’s a compromise here. New England could keep Belichick as head coach and supplement him with an actual general manager — something the Patriots haven’t officially had this millennium. The most likely solution would be a VP of Player Personnel, which was the role Scott Pioli held from 2002 to 2008 before being hired away by the Kansas City Chiefs. That would provide a mirror for Belichick’s blind spots (free agent spending, drafting cornerbacks in the second round, drafting wide receivers in general) while freeing his time to focus on the on-field product.
Would both sides agree to something like that? No one’s quite sure, especially with an organization as tight-lipped as New England. But something likely has to give after a disaster of a season. A rebuild looms; will Belichick be part of it?
2
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
Well, that was a nice rally while it lasted. The Bears proved they could utilize Justin Fields to promising effect and went 3-1 from mid-November to early December to make an unlikely climb to the periphery of the NFC Wild Card race. Then Fields fell apart vs. the Cleveland Browns’ stout defense, blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead and ensured the second-straight losing season of the Eberflus era.
Eberflus has held onto his job by a kite’s string and it has drifted further and further out, caught by the winds of an NFC North that continues to blow past Chicago. Fields’ revival brought a faint whiff that the Bears might be able to harness that breeze and turn it into something beneficial. Maybe not a future with Fields at the helm but a proper trade haul and, after being given proof of concept he could build a working offense, a chance for ‘Flus to work with whichever quarterback the team selects with the Carolina Panthers’ first round draft pick.
Nope! Fields cratered in an offense designed to ramp up his intermediate and deep throws, completing only two of 12 passes to go at least 10 yards downfield (in fairness, two were Hail Marys. Each was intercepted). The third year quarterback was a mess for an offense that’s only thrown for 200-plus yards four times this season. As a result the world at large is reminded, yet again, the Bears botched their head coaching decision.
The good news is there’s plenty to pitch when it comes to hiring a new coach. A rookie franchise quarterback will have a proven WR1, a useful offensive line and a defense that’s been significantly better lately (fewer than 270 yards allowed in three of its last five games). Chicago also has a big chunk of cap space and should be able to pad its draft assets with a Fields trade.
That all points to a brighter future and a job opening about which rising coaching candidates can be excited. And Bears fans should be excited too, assuming they forget the decade of coaching hires that led them to this point.
1
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Well, the good news is Jacoby Brissett may have proven he’s the best quarterback on the Washington roster. The bad news is it’ll have no tangible effect on fates of either the 2023 Commanders or their veteran head coach.
Rivera is playing out the string, his reward for being a well-liked presence who gutted out the tail end of the franchise’s Dan Snyder era without complaint. He’s now staring down a new owner who’ll be looking to install his own head coach to guide whichever quarterback is tasked with cleaning up the Sam Howell experiment next fall. Rivera, unsurprisingly, couldn’t turn a second-year, former fifth round pick into a franchise quarterback and lost his longshot bid to return for a fifth season in the nation’s capital.
Rivera’s four seasons at the helm resulted in more Congressional investigations into his franchise’s workplace environment than winning seasons (zero). The best quarterback he had to work with was either Taylor Heinicke or post-injury Alex Smith. He engineered two top 10 defenses but his 2023 unit, which sold off stars for draft picks at the trade deadline, has given up more points and yards than anyone else in the NFL.
Washington will hit the reset button, but not until the season has finished. That’s a courtesy Rivera has earned and, like so many players and coaches that came before him, his experience in Washington will be graded on a curve knowing he played under the chilling effects of Snyder’s horse[expletive] reign.
He’ll have a spot in broadcasting waiting if he wants to step away from the sideline for a bit. Otherwise, he can rebuild his value as a coordinator somewhere before one last go-round as an NFL head coach down the line.
