Consider this the calm before the NFL draft storm for the Vikings.
After getting through the scouting combine, the first wave of free agency, multiple pro days and the owners meetings, things should be pretty quiet for much of April as far as news coming out of TCO Performance Center.
This isn’t because the Vikings aren’t hard at work, it’s because general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and his staff will be finalizing plans for the draft, which will begin three weeks from this Thursday.
What position will be the Vikings’ target with the 23rd pick in the first round? Will they try to trade that pick in order to move down and accumulate more selections than the five they currently possess? Is there a chance they could look to move up?
All of these are key questions that must be decided on in the coming days and weeks. Let’s take a look at four of them.
Free agent signing could impact thought process on where to take cornerback
The Vikings were projected to select a cornerback in the first rond in many of the early mock drafts, but that changed when free agent Byron Murphy Jr. left Arizona to sign a two-year, $17.5 million contract with Minnesota.
The Vikings have depth issues at corner — there are only five on the depth chart — and 2022 draft picks Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans both are coming off seasons in which they were slowed by injury. Booth and Evans should get every chance to start alongside Murphy, assuming the newcomer moves inside in the nickel.
It’s likely the Vikings will attempt to add at this position in the draft, but it likely won’t come in the first round unless one of the top corners falls. This is a deep class at the position, so the Vikings could exercise patience.
It is worth noting that research by Tyler Forness of Vikings Wire shows seven of the top 10 players sent to Minnesota most often in the first round were cornerbacks. In 307 mock drafts since January 1st, the player picked for the Vikings most frequently has been Maryland corner Deonte Banks. Banks has been targeted to Minnesota 35 times.
A portion of those mocks, however, came before Murphy was signed. Failure to address this position in the draft doesn’t mean all hope is lost. There remains a long list of second-tier free-agent cornerbacks on the market.
There is another thing to factor in when it comes to the Vikings and their draft strategy. That is what head coach Kevin O’Connell wants to do.
A complement to Justin Jefferson would make Kevin O'Connell happy
The Vikings’ decision to move on from veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen leaves the Vikings in the market for a No. 2 wide receiver to complement superstar Justin Jefferson.
K.J. Osborn is a talented players but it’s clear the Vikings see him as their No. 3 receiver. Jalen Nailor, a sixth-round pick in 2022, has upside but it’s a long shot the Vikings would count on him to replace Thielen and Jalen Reagor might not make it out of training camp given his limited contributions last season.
It would make sense if O’Connell pushes Adofo-Mensah to make wide receiver the priority with the Vikings’ first-round pick. Potential options include Boston College’s Zay Flowers, Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TCU’s Quentin Johnston.
O’Connell wants to make the Vikings’ offense more dynamic in his second season as coach and play-caller and one way to do that will be having an explosive receiver opposite Jefferson. The Vikings lacked that last season with Thielen slowed by age and injury.
A dynamic second receiver would present a home run threat and make Jefferson that much more difficult to contain. That would be a win-win that could boost the Vikings from eighth in the NFL in scoring last season (24.9 points) to a spot in the top five.
Could the Vikings be looking for Kirk Cousins' replacement in this draft?
The Vikings are doing extensive due diligence on finding a replacement for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has a season left on his contract. While Cousins’ return beyond 2023 can’t be dismissed, it appears as if the Vikings’ preference will be to move on without the veteran after next season.
While there was a report linking the Vikings to Lamar Jackson, the best bet is that Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell would like to identify and draft a quarterback in either 2023 or 2024. There have been rumblings about the Vikings’ interest in Will Levis, but the Kentucky quarterback is considered a Top 10 pick by many.
That means the Vikings would have to give up a large package of picks to get into a position to take Levis. The other name being thrown out has been Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, who is 25 years old. There is great debate about how effective Hooker will be in the NFL and how much he was a product of Tennessee’s system.
What makes this so interesting is the unknown regarding the Vikings’ thought process on this position. O’Connell is a former quarterback and was hired by Minnesota, in part, to find a long-term solution at QB. That’s something that former general manager Rick Spielman could never do.
O’Connell would raise plenty of eye brows if he signs off on taking Hooker at No. 23. O’Connell might argue that burning the first season on Hooker’s five-year rookie contract makes sense, since he could sit behind Cousins and be tutored by a quarterback-friendly coaching staff.
One thing that appears certain is the Vikings won’t be bad enough in 2023 to be in a position to take Southern Cal’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye. So if Cousins is allowed to walk away after this season and the Vikings want to target one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 draft, they will have to pay a large price in order to do so.
Trading down wouldn't be exciting but it would be a way to add picks
One of the most interesting things about the Vikings’ first draft under Adofo-Mensah last April was that when it was complete, the rookie GM hadn’t made one selection with a pick that he had entering the draft.
Adofo-Mensah’s desire to make moves could lead to plenty of trades in this year’s draft. It’s hard to believe he only wants to end this process with only five new players. The way to fix that would be to trade back from No. 23 and potentially add a second-round selection, or another one in the third round.
The Vikings lost their second-round pick in the trade-deadline deal that brought tight end T.J. Hockenson from Detroit.
The Vikings currently have picks 23 (first round), 87 (third round), 119 (fourth round), 158 (fifth round) and 211 (sixth round compensatory pick).
Adofo-Mensah didn’t take long last year to swing his first draft-night trade, sending picks 12 and 46 to the Lions for picks 32, 34 and 66. The Lions used the 12th selection in the opening round on wide receiver Jameson Williams, while the Vikings took safety Lewis Cine with the 32nd pick in the opening round.
While this space believes it would be wise for the Vikings to stand pat at 23 and grab a wide receiver, it won’t be surprising if Adofo-Mensah resumes his “Let’s Make A Deal” philosophy come April 27.
