ANALYSIS — “I’m not playing cards.”
Those are the now-infamous words Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told President Donald Trump during Friday’s contentious Oval Office showdown.
Traditional Ukraine allies on Capitol Hill and Zelenskyy might want to shuffle up and deal — and fast. Tuesday brought signs they are starting to do just that.
A White House official said Monday evening that the administration had frozen all deliveries of U.S. military and other aid to Ukraine following Friday’s dust-up between the two leaders.
“The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution,” the White House official said. The official did not disclose how long that “review” might last, but it was clear the next move was Zelenskyy’s.
One longtime Senate ally, who has supported the billions in U.S. aid allocations to Ukraine, already appears to be playing a new hand.
“The Europeans are piling on in support of Zelenskyy. Here’s my message to the Europeans: Maybe it’s time for you to defend your continent. Maybe it’s time for you to stop hollowing out your military,” Sen. Lindsey Graham told SiriusXM on Saturday.
“And if you want to use tough rhetoric toward [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, how about back it up with some muscle? When a European leader speaks, no bad guy listens,” the South Carolina Republican said. “When Trump speaks, everybody’s on edge. I was never more proud of President Trump than I was [Friday]. He stood up for America. He refused to be lectured to.”
But another Republican who has been a staunch Ukraine backer predicted that cooler heads would soon prevail and the rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine sought by the Trump administration would soon be signed.
“I just had a lengthy and productive one-on-one conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Chief-of-Staff, Andrii Yermak. We are 100% getting this train back on the tracks,” Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, wrote Monday on social media.
“This mineral deal will be signed in short order, which will lead to a strong long-term economic partnership between the United States and Ukraine, and which will ultimately and naturally lead to security assistance,” he added. “Europe will be required to step up and do its part, and there will be mandates for them to do just that.”
Fitzpatrick’s disclosure revealed how Republican lawmakers have been working behind the scenes since Friday to try to repair the diplomatic damage.
A spokesperson for Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., had not responded as of press time to an email seeking comment on Trump’s aid freeze. Wicker has been a proponent of assisting Ukraine and called the minerals deal “a huge step forward in securing mutual prosperity and peace for Americans and Ukrainians” in a since-deleted social media post.
Trump had described the minerals deal as a starting point in peace talks, painting it as a way for Ukraine to begin repaying Washington for Biden-era aid shipments.
But Zelenskyy drew the ire of Trump and Vice President JD Vance during Friday’s Oval Office session when he reiterated the need for security assurances to accept a temporary ceasefire.
The U.S. leaders expressed disdain for Zelenskyy’s tone — something that reportedly had frustrated even Joe Biden — and, from their vantage points, a lack of appreciation for American support for his country.
Still, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, who also has stood by Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February 2022, slammed Trump’s and Vance’s behavior.
“Nobody on earth was happier with what happened last Friday in the Oval Office than Vladimir Putin,” the New York Democrat said on the Senate floor Monday. “Our allies will also watch in horror as Donald Trump and [Defense Secretary] Pete Hegseth make America less safe, the world less safe.”
Mea culpa
Yet, on Tuesday, it was Zelenskyy who delivered a public mea culpa after the announcement the administration was pausing all aid shipments to Kyiv.
“We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this,” he wrote on social media.
“Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive,” he added.
On the proposed rare earth minerals, Zelenskyy declared himself “ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format,” calling that agreement “a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees.”
The assessment of the minerals pact unlocking possible security assistance from Washington should peace be attained was a point Zelenskky appeared to miss Friday before stepping out of his black Chevrolet SUV outside the West Wing.
The “America first” president has begun his second term in a transactional mood, saying recently that his entire adult life had been about making deals. To that end, leaders of nations such as Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Jordan have visited the White House with tangible things to offer Trump or potentially transact with down the road. All demonstrated an understanding of a fundamental trait of international relations: When the rules change, adjust your strategy and tactics. Put another way: Get new cards.
Whether Zelenskyy’s social media post Tuesday is enough to convince Trump to end the aid freeze was unclear at press time. White House officials had not responded to inquiries seeking comment ahead of Trump’s address before a joint session of Congress later Tuesday. It did appear to give Graham some hope, with the senator posting on social media: “Better days are ahead.”
But one analyst warned that the pause, should it remain in place, would hamstring Ukrainian forces.
“If the pause continues, Ukraine may struggle to maintain its defensive and offensive capabilities within months. If the pause affects Ukraine’s access to [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] assets and Starlink [satellites], the impact on the battlefield will be felt immediately,” Giles Alston of Oxford Analytica wrote in a Monday brief. (Oxford Analytica is owned by CQ Roll Call’s parent company, FiscalNote.)
The dayslong drama has already pitted Ukraine aid supporters against those who’ve been more skeptical of continuing to help Kyiv in its brutal conflict with Moscow.
Sen. Christopher S. Murphy, D-Conn., described the scenes from Oval Office on Friday as a “planned ambush designed to embarrass President Zelenskyy in order to benefit Vladimir Putin. That was an embarrassment.”
That social media post prompted a response from Oklahoma Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin, a staunch Trump supporter and a member of the Armed Services and Appropriations committees.
“Ambush? Hilarious. We all saw 46 mins on tape. Trump is trying to end a war,” Mullin said. “America is the most generous nation on Earth. It’s not even close. It’s also not a crime to prioritize your own country.”
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