The coming weeks could be decisive for the war in Ukraine: As President Volodymyr Zelensky calls for bold action from Western allies to achieve his “victory plan”, former US president Donald Trump has pledged that Washington will “get out” of the conflict if he wins back the White House in November. And Ukrainians face the prospect of another brutal winter at war with diminishing energy resources.
“We are closer to the peace than we think. We are closer to the end of the war," Zelensky told US broadcaster ABC News on Monday. "Decisive action now could hasten the just end of Russian aggression against Ukraine next year."
As Zelensky arrived in Washington on Thursday to present a “victory plan” to outgoing President Joe Biden at the White House, the US pledged a further $7.9 billion in military aid for Ukraine and new long-range munitions.
Russia pre-empted the US response to the plan by making unprecedented changes to its nuclear weapons documents, in what the Kremlin on Thursday described as “a signal” to the West that there will be consequences if Western powers participate in attacks on Russia.
The Ukrainian president’s visit to the US comes at a crucial time in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Another harsh winter looms for Ukrainian forces fighting grinding battles in the east and civilians living in cities increasingly subject to Russian drone attacks.
Ukraine’s energy grid is now so compromised that Ukrainians have been warned to expect power outages of between four and 18 hours a day in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the prospect of a party change in the US presidency could abruptly cut support from one of Ukraine’s key allies. The United States has provided around $175 billion in both military and economic assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022.
"Every time Zelensky comes to the United States, he walks away with $100 billion," former president Trump said on Wednesday. “We're stuck in that war unless I'm president. I'll get it done. I'll get it negotiated, I'll get out. We got to get out."
The Republican nominee accused Zelensky of refusing to strike a deal with Moscow. Trump had also been due to meet Zelensky during his US visit, but their talks now appear to be on ice.
‘Victory plan’
Zelensky hopes to capitalise on a small window of opportunity while in the US. He arrives at a time when Biden has just four months left in office and a legacy to cement.
Since the Russian full-scale invasion, Western aid has often come slowly, leaving Ukraine’s military critically exposed on the front lines.
Zelensky’s plan “is meant to break the current positional warfare by providing a roadmap of very concrete steps Ukraine needs from its partners by the end of the year”, says Jaroslava Barbieri, a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham specialising in Russian and Eastern European studies with a focus on the Ukraine war.
Zelensky is expected to urge fast action on military, political, diplomatic and economic elements such as the security guarantee of NATO membership for Ukraine and a request to ramp up sanctions to weaken Russia's economy and defence industry.
The Ukrainian president has said he will seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep within Russian territory and is also expected to call for a dramatic strengthening of Ukraine’s weaponry by the end of the year – enough, he says, to force Russia into capitulation.
Read moreZelensky tells UN Security Council that Russia 'can only be forced into peace'
NATO members have so far hesitated to provide such weapons to Ukraine over fears of crossing a Russian 'red line' and becoming targets themselves.
Negotiations
For both Russia and Ukraine, the prospect of total victory looks remote.
Russia is facing an ongoing Ukrainian incursion into its Kursk region and the likely announcement of a new wave of military mobilisation that could be deeply unpopular. The threat of turning nuclear weapons on the West “is the last ace up Putin's sleeve”, says Barbieri.
Ukraine has lost a fifth of its territory and tens of thousands of Ukrainians have died since the full-scale Russian invasion. It has thus far been unable to oust Russian forces.
Zelensky’s goal now is “to open the possibility of holding diplomatic talks in 2025 from a position of strength”, Barbieri says.
Ukrainians are also increasingly open to peace negotiations.
In February 2023, more than 80 percent of Ukrainians thought that their government should not make any compromises in negotiations and that Ukraine should continue fighting for as long as it takes to secure victory, data from the Mobilise Project shows. By May 2024 this figure had dropped to 58 percent.
When it comes to the issues to be negotiated, “all of them are controversial if you are Ukrainian”, says Dr Olga Onuch, project lead of the Mobilise Project’s Ukrainian data team, professor of comparative and Ukrainian politics at the University of Manchester and author of “The Zelensky Effect”.
“Concessions on territorial integrity lines are highly unpopular,” Onuch says. “Nearly 40 percent of the population have a close friend or family member that is living under the repression of Russian occupation, so it's something that is extremely personal.”
However, “there are a lot of other things that could be on the table for Russia: Who gets tried for war crimes and in what format, what happens to Russian businesses, what happens to Russian assets abroad? Those are things where there is some space for negotiation.”
Ceasefire, or not
Peace talks, or even ceasefire talks, may be a long way off. There is no guarantee that Zelensky’s victory plan will spur the West to bold action – especially under the threat of Russian nuclear retaliation.
The West has consistently failed to counter Russian aggression in a meaningful way, Barbieri says. “Western governments have been so preoccupied with not breaking the Kremlin's red lines that we've forgotten to draw up our own.”
At present, “each side still thinks it can improve its situation by continuing to fight”, says David Blagden, senior lecturer in international security at the University of Exeter. “And both sides have reason to fear that, if they stop fighting, their adversary will grow in strength.”
Russia believes it can keep grinding forward in east Ukraine and fears Kyiv will use an opportunity to regroup to gather new Western weapons or even become a fully-fledged NATO member, before trying to push back on Russian territorial gains.
Ukraine believes that it can increase pressure on Russia if it has access to NATO weapons and fears Russia will use a pause in fighting to recover its military strength before launching a new attack.
Even a Trump victory in the US presidential election is unlikely to end the Ukraine war, although it will tip the scales in Russia’s favour. Onuch says: “Ukraine will not give up fighting this war. They will not stop defending. It would just be that much harder.”
