One of the more popular fantasy breakout running back candidates heading into this year is Zamir White. He showed some flashes of potential last season when Josh Jacobs was injured, ranking ninth in points among runners over the final four weeks. In that time, he averaged 23.3 touches and 15.2 points. The question is … will that volume remain?
To find the answer, I did some research on new Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and how he used his running backs in the past. I’ll focus on his last two years, during which time he ran the offenses in Chicago.
The findings will not excite White managers.
Zamir White 2024 Fantasy Outlook
In 2022, his lead back was David Montgomery. His totals weren’t great at all, as he ranked outside the top 25 among running backs while splitting the workload with Khalil Herbert. Montgomery received 30.1% of the backfield touches, while Herbert saw 17.7%. DM also averaged fewer than 12 fantasy points in his 16 games under Getsy’s watch that year.
Last season, Getsy didn’t have Montgomery and lacked a featured back. As a result, we saw Herbert (17.8%), D’Onta Foreman (14%) and Roschon Johnson (13.5%) all share the workload. None of the trio made a consistent fantasy impact for their managers.
By comparison, White saw 44.4% of the raiders touches in his four games without Jacobs at the end of last season. If Getsy’s usage is any indication, that number is going to drop. That doesn’t mean he won’t be the lead runner, because I think he will, but averaging 23.3 touches and seeing a 44.4% touch hare are very unlikely. Instead, I expect White to see in the neighborhood of 15 carries and 18 touches per game on the high end of his totals.
Remember, White has never been much of a pass catcher (15 career receptions), and the Raiders added veteran Alexander Mattison to ultimately fill that role. So, unless the Raiders are in the two-minute drill, White will likely be taken off the field on most third downs.
Based on these stats, how can White be considered a breakout candidate?
Well, I’m still projecting him to be the early-down runner who will see most of the red-zone touches too. He led Las Vegas with 10 such looks in his final four games last season. Barring injuries, White should see 250-plus carries. That would have put him in the top 10 among runners last season. He’s also not costing fantasy managers a high draft pick, with an ADP of 79.8 on ESPN. That means he’s a seventh or eighth-round selection.
Currently, I have White ranked as my RB22, making him a low RB2 or high flex starter. And while his receiving totals are unlikely to be eye popping, White’s work as a runner behind what should be an improved offensive line is enough to project him as an attractive pick.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Zamir White Won't Be Elite, Be He Will Be a Fantasy Football Asset in 2024.
