Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler showcased his skills during a recent game against the Miami Marlins. In a comprehensive analysis of starting pitchers, grades were assigned to each pitch in the arsenals of 82 pitchers who threw 135 or more innings in 2022 to calculate starting pitcher Grade-Point Averages.
The grading system evaluated pitches based on their effectiveness in generating swings and misses, as well as managing contact. Each pitch was compared to league average swing-and-miss rates and pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Scores, which indicate the relative production a pitcher 'should have' allowed based on batted ball data.
The pitcher GPAs were determined by multiplying the grade for each pitch by its usage rate and summing those scores. The average pitcher GPA was around 3.00, with the average coming out to 3.03.
Notable pitchers in the top quartile included Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Freddy Peralta. Strider led the pack with a 4.18 GPA, excelling with his four-seamer and slider. Wheeler's performance was highlighted by his four-seamer and sinker, both earning maximum grades.
Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole, the actual Cy Young winners, were slightly lower in the rankings. Snell's changeup, curve, and slider received high grades, while Cole's four-seamer and slider were solid but not exceptional.
Other pitchers like Max Scherzer, Tyler Anderson, and Ken Waldichuk clustered in a narrow GPA range. Dylan Cease experienced a decline in performance, while Kodai Senga impressed with his forkball despite an injury setback.
Yu Darvish, Aaron Nola, and Mitch Keller were among the pitchers in the middle group, with Darvish's diverse pitch arsenal potentially working against him. Framber Valdez struggled with his sinker, impacting his overall performance.
In the lower quartile, pitchers like Kyle Bradish, Zac Gallen, and Logan Webb faced challenges with certain pitches affecting their grades. Webb's reliance on his changeup salvaged his overall results despite weaknesses in other pitches.
The analysis provides valuable insights into pitchers' arsenals and their potential future performance, offering a proactive scouting perspective for baseball enthusiasts and analysts.
