It seems as if everyone’s talking about New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, his awful performance against the New England Patriots on Sunday, and his refusal to take any sort of responsibility for his part in the loss.
When Wilson was asked whether he let the Jets’ defense down by completing nine of 22 passes for 77 yards, no touchdowns, and two dropped interceptions (yes, it could have been even worse), and he simply said, “No,” that was the End of All Things in Jetsland. As a quarterback, you can get away with being obnoxious if you’re great. And you can get away with being terrible if you’re s standup guy — there are scads of examples of both. But if you can’t hit water falling out of a boat, AND you’re ducking accountability like it’s an overload blitz? Your tenure in the NFL will be very short, indeed.
The Patriots defense, which has tortured Wilson this season in two Jets losses, didn’t seem to care about his performance at the podium, or any other behavioral aberrations. In New England’s 10-3 win, they were more grateful that Wilson did what he’s done all season — go into full head-explode mode when a defense shows him a different coverage look than he expects.
“We definitely know those pre-snap disguises are huge,” safety Kyle Dugger said. “We know that he’s going to take what he sees and have an idea what he’s going to do already in his head. So, we definitely made sure that we were disguising heavy so that post-snap, he would have to think a little more, take a little longer and our D-line can do what they do. So, definitely pre-snap disguise was big for us.”
It was in this game, and it has been all season, Per Pro Football Focus’ tracking, Wilson has seen some sort of safety disguise on 151 of his dropbacks this season. And under those circumstances, he’s completed 21 of 35 passes for 200 yards, one completion of 20 or more air yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s run 11 times, which is when he’s most confused by coverage switches, and he’s just trying to get through the play. He’s also taken six sacks, which tells you the same thing in a different way, and confirms Dugger’s scouting report.
Here’s the thing — when a divisional opponent you face at least two times a season, and might face again in the postseason, comes right out and says how they can make you vulnerable — and then they go right ahead and do it — that is an embarrassment for you as a player. Or, at least, it should be an embarrassment.
And in an NFL where quarterbacks are seeing more disguised coverages than ever before, Wilson’s issues with them this far into his career serve as yet another red flag. Not exactly optimal, but nothing about the Jets’ quarterback situation is these days.
The Week 11 sacks weren't about disguised coverage.
Perhaps the most interesting thing about Dugger’s comments were that Wilson’s four sacks in this came were all out of standard, base, undisguised coverages. All four of those sacks came with different iterations of Cover-3, and in no instance was Wilson delayed in his process by something your average college quarterback couldn’t figure out.
The first sack, which came with 14:03 left in the third quarter, was more on Wilson taking too much time to make a decision. He had Denzel Mims open short outside to his left on a switch release with Elijah Moore, and he had running back Ty Johnson open to his right on a quick release route. Wilson was aiming to his left, perhaps waiting for Mims or Moore to break open on the switch — I don’t think he ever saw Johnson in this third-and-7 situation. Judon got through for the sack, but it took him a while, and Wilson had openings. He also had linebacker Mack Wilson spying him over the middle, which is an adjustment the Patriots made in the second half.
The second sack, which was the first play of the fourth quarter, was far more about an absolutely evil stunt concept in which edge-rushers Matthew Judon and Josh Uche looped multiple gaps inside to blow up the inside of New York’s offensive line. This was third-and-12 from the New York 34-yard line, so you can understand why Wilson wanted to wait for the deep shot to open up… but sometimes, you have to take a profit and move on to the next possession.
The problem Wilson had was that he didn’t have clearly open guys. The Patriots did a very nice job of plastering his receivers, so Wilson had to throw with timing, anticipation, and nuance. These are three things he’s not comfortable doing, to put it kindly.
Losing one's way in the weeds.
Wilson did throw an interception against the Patriots’ disguised coverage in Week 8. This was with 12:13 left in the game, New England up 19-10, and the Jets with third-and-7 at their own 46-yard line. Pre-snap, the Patriots showed a two-high shell, but at the snap, safety Adrian Phillips dropped down, and Wilson was dealing with Cover-1 Robber. Phillips was to take away receiver Jeff Smith’s crossing route, and that left Wilson with precious few options at his developmental level.
Basically, he barfed this pass into quadruple coverage with Patriots all over it, and deep safety Devon McCourty had one of the easiest picks he’ll ever experience in his impressive career. You can see tight end Tyler Conklin trying to run scramble rules across the field, but alas. Wilson had run out of options in his head, and that didn’t take too long.
Rookie receiver Garrett Wilson was highly frustrated during and after Sunday’s loss, and plays like this against the Steelers in Week 4 indicate to me that not only is Wilson’s frustration entirely warranted, but it’s been building for a while.
Pretty significant difference here. pic.twitter.com/4yIRLX4PDp
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) November 20, 2022
The Steelers are throwing a similar concept at Zach Wilson here. They start in a two-high shell, but safety Minkah Fitzpatrick drops down a bit post-snap in Cover-1. Jeff Smith is running the over from right to left, and Garrett Wilson is running the crosser from the left slot to the right seam. Fitzpatrick doesn’t quite commit to the robber role, which leaves Garrett Wilson wide-ass open for the big play on third-and-11 near the end of the first half. Fitzpatrick is basically conceding the shorter completion to limit the damage further downfield.
But Zach Wilson never sees Garrett Wilson. His eyes never go there. He is fixated on throwing the ball to Smith, despite the fact that Smith is dealing with triple coverage. You could tell me what Wilson was thinking when he made this throw, and I probably wouldn’t believe it. I don’t think he was thinking at all.
Missing the simple things.
There are times with the Jets where coverage switches affect the entire offense, and even Day 1 install stuff goes awry. This was the case against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. The Bills flipped from a two-high look to Cover-3, and safety Jaquan Johnson coming down to interrupt tight end C.J. Uzomah’s route upfield. Wilson checked way down, tried to hit Braxton Berrios on a quick outlet pass out of orbit motion, and failed to make the connection.
Back to the Patriots game in Week 8. Here, New England drops into Cover-2 after showing a shallow two-deep look, and Wilson’s brain appears to melt down. Wilson has Tyler Conklin wide open past the numbers to the left side, but he delays the throw, and by the time he does make it, cornerback Jonathan Jones has the time to drive all the way back into coverage from a blitz look to break it up.
Robert Saleh may have seen enough.
The Jets’ head coach is one of the more relentlessly positive people in the NFL, and he’s stuck with Wilson through all of this. But after his quarterback embarrassed himself on and off the field Sunday, Saleh for the first time indicated that a change may be afoot.
“Not right now,” Saleh said Monday, when asked if he would commit to Wilson as the starter when the Jets face the Chicago Bears on Sunday. “Not until I’m done evaluating everything.”
I’ve got to be able to sit back,” Saleh continued. “I think we all have to be able to sit back and just look at what’s best for this organization and this team. It’s not all about the quarterback. I want to be very, very clear. It’s not all about the quarterback. There’s a lot of things that we can do better as coaches. There’s a lot of things that the o-line needs to do better, receivers, running backs, tight ends, play caller. There’s defense, everybody, special teams. I get it where everyone looks at the quarterback and wants to throw everything on him. It’s not always about the quarterback, but there’s also an evaluation process to make sure that we’re doing what’s best for the organization, and that’s every position.
“That’s quarterback position, that’s receiver, that’s all of them, offense, defense, and special teams. Like I said, I’m a little behind and it’s just things that I’ve got to go through in my own process to make sure I catch up.”
When Saleh does catch up, he’ll undoubtedly see that he has a 6-4 team at the bottom of the AFC East with a top-tier defense that is wasted at the altar of their offense, and everyone’s getting tired of it. The trade deadline has passed, so there’s no real option outside of throwing Joe Flacco or Mike White out there and seeing how they do in Wilson’s stead.
In the offseason, the Jets will have the larger decision to make — whether to keep the guy they selected second overall with the second pick in the 2021 draft, or move along.
So far, Zach Wilson has made that decision far easier in a negative sense for himself.
