Through the first 27 games of Zach Wilson’s NFL career, the second overall pick in the 2021 draft looked more like the latest in a series of Bad Quarterback Decisions made by the New York Jets’ franchise than anything resembling a confident and consistent starter in the league.
Then, Sunday night’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs happened, and all of a sudden, Wilson looked like a very different player. Through the first three weeks of the season, starting with his time in the barrel after Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury in the opener against the Buffalo Bills, Wilson had completed 44 of 84 passes (52.4%) for 456 yards (5.6 YPA), two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 57.0.
Against a very good Chiefs defense that ranked ninth in DVOA to that point, Wilson completed 28 of 39 passes (71.8%) for 245 yards (6.3 YPA), two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.2. It was only the second time in a game that Wilson completed at least 70% of his passes, and the first time he had thrown two or more touchdown passes without an interception.
Quite the step up for a young player who had looked lost in the soup more often than not.
“I felt like Hack [offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett] did an unbelievable job today mixing it up and spreading the ball around,” Wilson said after the 23-20 Jets loss. “I was seeing it really well. We need to keep building and I need to be better on the details. It’s the little things that win games, and you need to do them to be great.
“I think Hack trusted me better. Still, I need to be better for him. We need to keep growing on this and that’s the mindset for me on every single play.”
Robert Saleh, Wilson’s head coach, agreed regarding the progress.
“He was letting it rip and I thought he did a really nice job,” Saleh said. “I was just really happy for him to go out there and show that he does belong, that he can play in this league. If he plays that way, we’re gonna win a lot of football games.”
Wilson’s fumble with 7:45 left in the game marked the last time the Jets’ offense saw the field, as the Chiefs were able to bleed the clock (possibly with the help of at least one dubious call from referee Alex Kemp’s crew), but other than that, this was more like the Zach Wilson we saw at BYU than anything else we’ve seen to date.
The question is, was it a fluke, or can the Jets and Zach Wilson actually build on this? The answer lies in the tape, so let’s go there.
Play-action was the first cheat code.
Nathaniel Hackett gave Wilson more to work with in this game in two categories, and we’ll start with play-action. Through Wilson’s first three games this season, he had just 16 dropbacks with play-action, completing eight of 15 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.0 Conversely, Wilson had 82 dropbacks without play-action, and he completed 36 of 69 passes for 358 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 47.9.
Against the Chiefs, Wilson had 11 dropbacks with play-action, completing eight of 10 passes for 56 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.3. He had 31 dropbacks without play-action, completing 20 of 29 passes for 189 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 98.2.
Why does play-action work so well for Wilson? Against the Chiefs, you might call it the soft bias of low expectations. The moment Rodgers was lost for the season, everybody expected the Jets to be a run-first team, and it’s not as if Wilson has proven the ability to create explosive passing plays out of that structure or any other. So, Kansas City’s linebackers were cheating up something fierce on just about any movement in which it looked like the ball was going to a running back.
That gave Wilson an open read on this 14-yard crosser to Garrett Wilson with 12:39 left in the first half…
…and on this 12-yard completion to Allen Lazard with 14:22 left in the third quarter.
Maybe Wilson will struggle with more complex coverages out of these fakes if and when the NFL takes him more seriously as a passer, but this was the ideal plan to get him out of his head, and forward to working in rhythm on the field.
Pre-snap motion helped a lot.
Hackett had just 14 plays with pre-snap motion for Wilson in the first three weeks of the season, but it was a seminal construct of his performance in the Chiefs game. Wilson completed 10 of 11 passes for 111 yards with motion, and that included one of his three big passing plays — this 25-yard pass to tight end Tyler Conklin that could have come out of Mike McDaniel’s playbook.
Zach Wilson had three explosive completions against the Chiefs, and all three were tight-window throws. This 25-yarder to TE Tyler Conklin was out of levels with motion — very Dolphins-y. Chiefs worked well in Cover-1, but Wilson made the throw. Looked like he was back at BYU. pic.twitter.com/hGGX7FWmM7
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 2, 2023
By the way, the Jets are set up to run the ball with motion as well, as evidenced on this 43-yard Breece Hall run in the third quarter, so maybe it’s time to use more of it!
Making explosive plays in (and beyond) scheme.
As much as Hackett set the table for Wilson, his three most impressive plays were his three explosive completions. All three were tight-window throws, and here’s where you saw the arm talent that got him drafted so highly in the first place. We’ve seen the Conklin play; here are the other two.
This 38-yard completion to Allen Lazard featured boot-action, which reduced the field for Wilson and allowed him to wait out Kansas City’s Quarters coverage for his guy to come open. When safety Mike Edwards came down from two-deep — possibly to deal with Wilson as a runner — Wilson knew he had the one-on-one he wanted. That’s good late in the down decision-making, and a great effort by Lazard to get open against cornerback Trent McDuffie.
Finally, on this 23-yard pass to tight end Jeremy Ruckert, Hackett had the right plan to stretch the Chiefs’ Cover-3 with matching stop routes outside and corner routes from the slot, but Wilson still had to make the timing throw to Ruckert, who had a step on linebacker Leo Chenal.
Taking responsibility.
This doesn’t show up on tape, but Wilson taking responsibility for the fumble after the game made an imprint on his teammates. This was especially important after Wilson did anything but following a horrific game against the Patriots last November. This matters with quarterbacks more than it does for others.
“It’s on me,” Wilson said of the fumble. “In a critical situation I can’t have a play like that. I cannot drop the ball. The team is sacrificing a lot, the defense is making plays, the receivers are making plays. To be driving and to drop a snap … I can’t do that. I lost us the game. I need to be better on the little details. It can’t happen.
“We had the ball at midfield and had a chance right there.”
Zach Wilson said, "I lost the game. It's my fault bro". I feel for the kid. He played great tonight. They were a hair away from beating the defending champs. Love seeing his teammates lifting him up throughout the game though. Jets might be ok after all. pic.twitter.com/jF96a89jTx
— Jake Laskey (@WeDo_WithJL) October 2, 2023
You’ve got to love to see this. Zach Wilson’s teammates surrounding and supporting him after the loss.
Tough break to lose the game, but Wilson gave the Jets a chance with 245 passing yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs pic.twitter.com/eL9JbOb1UR
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) October 2, 2023
Is this sustainable?
Wilson’s performance is probably sustainable for at least one more week — this Sunday, the Jets take on the Denver Broncos, who have one of the worst defenses in recent NFL history. So, there’s that.
The Denver Broncos now have the worst defense ever tracked by DVOA through 4 games.
(Higher defensive DVOA = more scoring = worse) pic.twitter.com/VgCW32DORs
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) October 2, 2023
Beyond that? Wilson is likely to take his lumps against the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants (depending on which version of Wink Martindale’s defense shows up), and certainly the Buffalo Bills. But there’s enough on the bone here to make me think that while Wilson isn’t yet the guy people expected him to be when he was drafted, he’s started to take some serious steps forward.
And for a team with a great defense and a more than credible run game, that might be enough to maintain relevance through the rest of the 2023 season. Who would have thunk it?
