It looks like the upcoming federal election may be decided on a gender basis, with a new poll showing young men are backing Peter Dutton in vastly different numbers from young women.
According to recent polling from The Australian Financial Review and Freshwater Strategy, 37 per cent of young men aged 18 to 34 say they prefer Dutton as prime minister, compared to just 27 per cent of young women.
However, the vast majority of young Aussies — of all genders — prefer current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
According to the polling, 58 per cent of young women and 55 per cent of young men prefer Albo over Dutton. That’s fairly close, polling wise. It’s in the neutral and Dutton preferred territory where things get interesting (or worrying, depending on your political point of view), with a 10 point gap between how men and women view Dutton.
You can peep the numbers here. Source: The Australian Financial Review
There were also significant contrasts in approval ratings: Dutton holds a net approval rating of -6 among young men but a much lower -22 among young women.
Meanwhile, Albanese holds a net approval rating of +6 among young men and this dips to -11 for young women.
Freshwater director Michael Turner said it was likely due to young women prioritising government services and social issues, while young men prioritise economic prosperity, job security, and tax management.
It’s important to note that the research didn’t look at which political party has a better track record of economic management, but it did look at how people felt about it. And for young men, they’re getting the Liberal party selling points loud and clear.
“They are now significantly more likely to rate Dutton and the Coalition as best to manage the economy and government taxes,” Turner said.
The divide appears to extend to party preference as well. Among young women, Labor and the Greens are the most popular choices, each garnering 32 per cent support, while the Coalition lags behind at 25 per cent.
Last year, a gender gap was also observed in the US during the 2024 election cycle. There, young men tended to gravitate toward Donald Trump, who appeared on a slew of shows with huge audiences of young men, including a three-hour interview with Joe Rogan.
Over half of men under 30 years of age supported Trump, according to AP VoteCast.
Meanwhile, some 58 per cent of women under 30 backed Kamala Harris as reported by The Guardian.
What if an election was held today?
More broadly, the latest Newspoll survey conducted for The Australian has revealed growing sentiment for the conservative opposition coalition to win the next election.
If an election were held today, based on the two-party preferred vote, the Liberals would lead by 51 per cent to Labor’s 49 per cent, per the survey of more than 1,200 respondents.
It marks a shift from when this question was last asked in August when over half (55 per cent) were backing Labor to win and 45 per cent forecast a Coalition victory.
Here, Albanese and Dutton sit fairly evenly split — at 44 per cent and 41 per cent respectively — in terms of who respondents believe would make a better prime minister. A further 15 per cent were uncommitted.
Ultimately, with the rise of youth-driven movements and a more vocal younger electorate, Australia’s young people are now a demographic that can no longer be ignored.
And as we edge closer to election day, the diverging trends we’re observing could prove to hold major implications.
Lead image: Tracey Nearmy and Matt Jelonek / Getty Images
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