Stephen Ferris claims Ulster are "in a hole" at present - and one that will deepen before Christmas as he predicts Connacht will beat Dan McFarland's men at the Sportsground on Friday.
Ulster looked to have turned things around with their second half performance against Champions Cup holders La Rochelle on Saturday, fighting back from being held scoreless in the first half to earn two losing bonus points against Ronan O'Gara's side.
But former Ravenhill favourite Ferris insists that the game was well and truly put to bed by half-time and that his former club's problems remain as they seek to avoid a fourth win in a row.
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"Ulster seem like they're in a hole," Ferris said. "We talked about the second-half fight back and how good it was, but I've been in the same position as La Rochelle when you're smashing a team.
"You switch off mentally, you switch off physically. You could see in the scrums they were just leaning in, more or less having a rest. I know Ronan O'Gara in the stands was very disappointed they didn't come away with five points but at the same time his team were already on the bus at half-time.
"If the game had got nip and tuck, La Rochelle would have gone up another couple gears and blown Ulster away.
"Ulster are a side devoid of confidence, their self-esteem has taken a hit, there's been questions over the coaching staff, one of those being Jonny Bell who has only just been brought in because they've leaked so many points.
"After a 39-point drumming, all the questions were asked of the defence and Jonny Bell but look at the other side, they scored no points, there wasn't a peep about Dan Soper, or the skills coaches, when they created absolutely nothing.
"It's all about attitude. Defence is about getting back up onto your feet and making tackles. And one thing Ulster are doing is they seem to be drifting back to this choke tackle, holding players up and slow the opposition up, that's well and good against Zebre and Dragons when you don't have 140kg men coming in trying to take it to ground.
"Ulster have got to come in and start smacking boys, they've got to put in dominant hits and put teams under pressure defensively. We saw it for 25, 30 minutes against Leinster in the first-half when they were cohesive, hunting in packs, but it seems to be once they let in a try or two, the heads drop.
"It's been a disappointing number of weeks. Folding like a deckchair against Leinster has certainly had an effect on the team but there are a lot of players for Ulster that aren't in form. It's such an important time of the year to be in form.
"When you try too hard, you slip back into old habits, you aren't doing your own job and you're running around trying to do other people's.
"We've got to get back on the horse quickly and it won't get any easier with two big fixtures around the corner."
Ulster must refocus their efforts for their trip to Galway and a crucial URC game, with Munster to follow on New Year's Day.
"I'm worried about this Connacht game," Ferris admitted. "Connacht made a raft of changes for the Challenge Cup and played some half decent stuff.
"I know they picked up a couple of injuries there but they can replace those guys OK.
"We haven't played well. We're shipping a lot of points, physically we don't look quite there.
"Munster are starting to get their act together and that game in Belfast on 1st of January could be a real humdinger. If they lose to Connacht and lose to Munster you're talking about peoples' jobs being on the line, that's where it gets to very quickly.
"We all know pro sport can change in an instant. It's concerning.
"Connacht are going to be fired up. They've a half decent pack. They pushed Munster around at home and away. It'll be an intriguing battle and hopefully they'll pull one out of the bag.
"But I predict a Connacht win. The chips are down at Ulster, will they come out fighting? Who is going to be fit? Will Billy Burns play? Is Nathan Doak going to play at out-half?
"They seem to be struggling for options. Luke Marshall and Stuart McCloskey, that combination didn't work brilliantly against La Rochelle, (Jonathan) Danty made a boy out of both of them.
"It just feels that Connacht are in a much better place in terms of confidence and where they currently find themselves.
"I think it'll be a home win and more misery to be heaped onto the pile that keeps getting bigger at Ulster."
Ferris says that Ulster's chances of making Europe's last 16 after the La Rochelle loss and the 39-0 drubbing at Sale Sharks the week before are "slim to none".
He does have sympathy for McFarland and his players over EPCR's decision to move their home game against the champions behind closed doors at the Aviva Stadium, a decision taken on the night before the clash.
But Ferris believes that Ulster should have dealt with the situation better, for the La Rochelle game at least.
"I know Dan said it's not just a game of rugby it's an occasion. I totally agree with that," he stated.
"The whole pitch situation and the travel balls-up (for the Sale match), that's not an excuse for how the lads are playing at the minute and how they're key players are playing, the lack of attacking ability.
"That's not just because we're not on our own pitch. Playing at the Aviva, it's a bowling green.
"I've no sympathy for European Rugby and I'd be pretty sure if (Ulster CEO) Jonny Petrie turned around and said we're willing to give this game up tomorrow if the pitch is still frozen, the pitch was not going to be frozen.
"Then supporters are even more infuriated because they can't go to the Aviva which made the situation even worse. Call it off on Tuesday, Wednesday, put plans in place that supporters can travel down to the Aviva, get there and enjoy it, get behind their team, spend money and hopefully Ulster can benefit a little bit.
"But to do it the night before, it's a whole cock-up. It's very disappointing. Nobody knows who to point the finger at and that's the biggest problem.
"You've Ulster fans saying it's Jonny Petrie, you've players and coaches saying it's European Rugby and we're still undecided. With the review, we'll see what comes out but ultimately it's really disappointing."
Stephen Ferris is part of the Viaplay team - bringing every game live from the BKT United Rugby Championship including all 16 fixtures over the festive period.
Tune into all four URC inter provincial derbies this Christmas and New Year LIVE ON VIAPLAY starting with Connacht v Ulster on Friday 23 December from 7.35pm plus Munster v Leinster on St Stephen's Day live from 7.35pm. Then on New Year’s Day watch Irish rugby derbies back-to-back as Ulster host Munster at Kingspan on Sunday January 1 st from 5.15pm followed by Leinster v Connacht at 7.35pm.
Visit www.viaplay.com for more information. Viaplay is available on Sky, Virgin TV, Amazon Prime and online through the Viaplay App.
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