As National Party leader David Littleproud stood on a street corner on a frigid autumn morning, the spectre of electoral defeat loomed large.
While Mr Littleproud chatted to voters outside an early polling place in Orange, in central west NSW, on Tuesday, a travelling billboard for independent candidate Kate Hook pulled up behind him.
"You can't park there," former NSW Nationals MLC Rick Colless said firmly.
The trailer soon moved on.
Mr Littleproud's presence outside St Barnabas Anglican Church in the heart of the seat of Calare speaks volumes about the threat independent candidates pose in regional electorates.
The coalition has been targeting several key rural seats in the lead-up to the May 3 election, including Calare, Cowper, in northern NSW, and Wannon, in regional Victoria.
Climate 200-backed independents are emerging as key challengers in each of those seats.
Nurse Caz Heise is looking to upset Nationals MP Pat Conaghan in Cowper, while former radio host Alex Dyson is challenging senior Liberal Dan Tehan in Wannon.
Calare is a complex battleground, with strong local support for Nationals candidate Sam Farraway, Nationals-turned-independent MP Andrew Gee, and Ms Hook.
Mr Gee sensationally quit the Nationals seven months after the 2022 election, citing the party's opposition to an Indigenous voice to parliament and its response to local flood disasters.
Mr Littleproud has previously declared Calare a path to coalition victory.
But he appeared unperturbed by the threat of independents in regions that were once the coalition's heartland.
"We're going to run our own race," he told reporters at Bathurst RSL, where he committed to a regional hub for veterans.
"We're going to be very positive. We have a positive plan.
"We're about to make the biggest investment in regional Australia any government has ever made - ever."
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was due to campaign in Orange on Tuesday, but cancelled his commitments following the death of Pope Francis.
Ms Hook, a small-scale farmer and renewable energy advocate, acknowledged a split in the conservative vote between Mr Farraway and Mr Gee could help her win Calare.
"It seems to make sense because what I'm hearing from people is you look at the other two candidates, what people see is the same," Ms Hook told reporters outside St Barnabas.
"We've got a National Party candidate and we've got a former National Party candidate - they seem the same, they vote the same, they do politics the same.
"Whereas what I'm hearing from people is they want to do politics differently."
