In this week’s Friday Fight, a debate series in which two writers make their case on a hotly contested topic, the question is: has Europe’s far-right movement lost momentum? As extremism creeps into Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands, many people feel hope about the British Labour Party’s huge victory in the UK and France’s shock election result where a coalition of the French left won most seats, beating back a far-right surge. But what does this actually mean for Europe?
In the affirmative corner we have freelance journalist Caitlin Powell. Arguing in the negative is columnist Benjamin Clark.
It would be no surprise if you believed that Europe faced a “far-right” takeover during the first half of the year, with support largely driven by immigration fears, a challenging global economy and an uptick in nationalism.
“This time, the far-right threat is real,” Politico warned. “A far-right takeover of Europe is underway,” Foreign Policy declared. Even former UK prime minister Gordon Brown entered the fray with the ominous: “There’s a hard-right tidal wave about to hit Europe.”
Setting the tone, the European Council of Foreign Relations revealed in January that far-right parties would be increasingly dominant in national settings and the European Parliament.
Yet the dust is settling after a series of elections and, while making significant gains, the far right did not take over multiple countries the way the zeitgeist predicted.
Consider the UK general election. The result everyone awaited was how many parliamentary seats the new kid on the block, Reform, would win. It was the third most popular party in the vote share — earning 14% (just over four million) of the total votes.
However, its success translated to just five out of the 650 seats in Westminster — including that of leader and Brexiteer Nigel Farage. Now, before political nerds yell: “But Reform would have won more seats if the UK did not use the first-past-the-post system!” This is where it lost momentum.
Its anti-immigration rhetoric may have tapped into the voter psyche but the UK electoral system works this way because MPs are supported, not simply by political ideology, but as representatives of their constituency. The most popular candidate is thus the one who best reflects its voice — not just the party.
Reform failed to play the game, ignoring the well-worn method of carefully targeting weak seats — unlike the centre-left Liberal Democrats, which claimed 72 seats by gunning for Conservative constituencies despite only earning 12% (3,487,568) votes overall. As such, Reform did commendably in its first trip to the polls but still only gained a handful of MPs.
Similarly in France, after a meteoric rise, the National Rally (a party co-founded by a member of the Waffen-SS) also experienced an eventual loss when the country was thrown into a snap poll.
The results of the European parliamentary election saw the party finish first and President Emmanuel Macron panicked, sending the French to the polls to vote on the National Assembly. Speculation that National Rally could win that too became more tangible as the party stormed to victory in the first of two rounds with 33% of the vote.
Yet, at the second (and final) hurdle, it was the leftist coalition, New Popular Front (NPF), which won. The group might not have been able to form a majority on its own — a whole other political mess — but it beat National Rally, which lagged third behind Macron’s Renaissance.
Once more, the gains of the far right were significant but, felled by a coalition of united centrist and left-wing parties, remained incapable of completing the ultimate goal: forming a government.
A similar downfall was seen during the EU election. Now, I know that far-right parties came first in France, Austria and Italy, tied for first place in the Netherlands and came second in Germany and Romania. An impressive run. But, despite this, it was the coalition of socialists, liberals and the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) that awkwardly banded together to form a governing majority.
This piece is not to dismiss the far-right movements such as those of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán or Finland’s Petteri Orpo that have come to power with relative ease — or through a coalition, as in the case of Croatia.
I am instead arguing that some success does not mean a continental shift. And among those that have established a government, some have still faced serious challenges.
The most dramatic example is that of far-right Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was shot five times in an assassination attempt that government ministers said was “politically motivated” after his win at the presidential election.
Slightly less perilous but still tough to reckon with, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and his nationalist party may have won the Dutch elections but stalled, taking almost six months to form a government. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni took power in 2022 — with the BBC calling it the “most right-wing government since World War Two” — but maintaining order has not been straightforward with an investigation into leading figures in her coalition.
It is easy to get swept up in the “hard-right tidal wave” and there is undoubtedly increased support for the parties across Europe. But all waves crest and crash; and many on the far right of the political spectrum have yet to find a cohesion that will see them through to a comfortable victory — at least for now.
Is the far-right surge in Europe as dangerous as reported? Who do you think won the debate? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
