SUPPORT for Scottish independence is four points stronger than support for the Union – and would increase massively should Nigel Farage take power, new polling for the Sunday National has found.
The survey, conducted by Find Out Now, found that 49.5% of Scots would support Yes if a vote on the constitution were held tomorrow, while 45.2% would vote No and 5.3% said they were undecided.
Excluding these “don’t knows” and rounding to the nearest whole number, Scots would back independence by 52% to 48%, the poll of 1774 adult voters found.
Amid the rise of support for Reform UK in political polling, the Sunday National also surveyed Scotland to ask how people would vote should Farage’s party take power in Westminster.
The Find Out Now survey found that if Farage were in No 10, Scotland would overwhelmingly vote for independence by 55.3% to 36.8%, with 8.0% saying they did not know.
Excluding these undecided voters, the poll found Scots would vote for independence by 60% to 40% if Farage were running the UK Government – a lead of 20 points.
Under this conditional, independence was the preferred choice of Scots in every age group except the over-65s. That eldest group did see an 11-point drop in support for No compared to the standard referendum question, while backing for Yes rose six points.
Under that standard referendum question, Unionism led independence in the 55-64 and 65+ age groups, while Yes was ahead in all others. The youngest age groups – 18-29 and 30-34 – saw backing for independence at 60% and 74% respectively.
SNP MSP Stuart McMillan said the polling results showed it was more vital than ever for the independence campaign to remain “rooted in our core values of inclusiveness, tolerance, and respect”.
It comes as Farage looks to increase his influence in UK politics, claiming last week that his Reform UK had overtaken the Conservatives to become the largest party on the right wing of British politics by membership.
Recent Westminster polling has shown that Reform are likely to be a serious electoral force at the next General Election, with their vote share even predicted to outstrip both the Tories’ and Labour’s in some surveys.
Farage has also been looking to play up his ties to Donald Trump’s incoming administration in the US, saying he would take up Peter Mandelson – who will be the UK Government’s ambassador to the Trump administration – on an offer to work with him on securing a US trade deal.
Downing Street has said they will not ask Farage to play such a role, and is said to be considering changing the law to block rumoured plans for a mega-donation of as much as $100 million from Elon Musk to Reform UK.
SNP MSP McMillan told the Sunday National: “Increasing support for independence is a sign that the people of Scotland know that Westminster, no matter who is in government, is failing them – a better future as an independent nation is possible.
“As Reform and their rhetoric rise across the UK, it is even more vital that the independence campaign remains rooted in our core values of inclusiveness, tolerance and respect.
“The SNP will continue to set out a better alternative, demonstrating how independence can allow us to properly tackle the challenges facing people in Scotland and build a better, fairer, more prosperous society for everyone.”
Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie said the increasing support for Yes in the polls reflected the UK offering “Scotland nothing but chaos, corruption and austerity” in the decade since the independence referendum.
He added: “Too much of that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has happily continued – showing more interest in fawning over Donald Trump than listening to what people struggling with the cost-of-living need.
“The UK must now listen to these polls and stop blocking the Scottish Parliament's democratic mandate for a second referendum.”
Alba’s general secretary Chris McEleny said: “In 2014, the Better Together campaign said that only a No vote would secure a future in the European single market place. They then laughed at the suggestion that Boris Johnson could become prime minister if Scotland stayed part of the UK – and Nigel Farage is now the bookies' favourite for who the next prime minister will be.
“In fact, you’re getting better odds for Farage to occupy Downing Street than you are for Scotland to qualify for the World Cup!
“With more than half the country in favour of Scottish independence, it is time for Scotland’s politicians to catch up with the desire of its people. Now is the day and now is the hour – it is time for Scotland to restore her independence.”
Find Out Now polled 1774 Scottish adults aged 18 and over between December 17 and 24.
The survey results are the second this month to show majority support for Yes, after a Norstat poll for the Sunday Times predicted 54% of Scots would vote for independence in a referendum, compared to 46% for No.
A Believe in Scotland poll run using the same panel found that, if the question involved Scotland becoming an independent republic, support for Yes rose five points to 59%.
Reform UK did not respond to the Sunday National’s approach for comment.
