Wednesday night in Dayton, under the bright lights of the First Four, the final spot in the Field of 64 will be decided. Find Xavier vs Texas picks and best bets below, along with the latest odds.
For Texas, it’s been a season of highs and lows, moments of brilliance countered by stretches of frustration. For Xavier, it’s been a tale of momentum, of peaking at just the right time. Only one will survive. Only one will advance.
Xavier vs Texas Picks and Best Bets
Xavier Musketeers vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Preview and Best Bets
All Xavier vs. Texas odds are from NBA sportsbook BetOnline and are correct as of Wednesday, Mar. 19.
-
Spread
Xavier -3.5 -
Moneyline
Xavier -155, Texas +135 -
Over/Under
151.5 -
Game Time
9:10 p.m. ET -
Location
UD Arena | Dayton, OH -
How To Watch
TruTV
The Longhorns: Searching for Consistency
Texas enters the tournament as a 3.5-point underdog, a position that speaks to the story of its season: flashes of dominance overshadowed by inconsistency.
The Longhorns have proven they can compete with the best—wins over Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, and Missouri stand as proof. But the losses have piled up, and the inconsistency has become their identity. Seven losses in their last nine games paint a picture of a team that has struggled to find its rhythm at the most important time of the year.
Their biggest weakness? A defense that struggles to force turnovers. Texas ranks near the bottom nationally in turnover percentage, which means Xavier’s sharp-shooting offense will have plenty of chances to dictate the pace of this game.
Xavier’s Momentum and Firepower
The Musketeers, on the other hand, are rolling into the tournament with confidence. They closed out the regular season on a seven-game win streak, a stretch that included a 22-point dismantling of Creighton and a 5-2 mark against the spread. Even in their two-point loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament, they built a 14-point lead before narrowly falling late.
Here’s where Xavier has another advantage: They are 7-0 against the spread this season when favored by five points or fewer. Three of those wins came during their recent hot streak, proving they can handle tight matchups and execute when it matters most.
The biggest weapon? Ryan Conwell.
He’s been one of the hottest shooters in the country, ranking sixth among all NCAA Tournament players in three-point shooting (41.8%). His last five games? Averaging 28.6 points per game and shooting 58.5% from deep. In his most recent performance against Marquette, he dropped 38 points.
Momentum matters in March. And Xavier has it.
The Numbers Behind the Matchup
This game sets up to be a high-scoring battle.
- Xavier is in the top 10 nationally in three-point shooting at 39%.
- Texas has been an Over machine this season—12-1 to the Over in its last 13 games.
- Xavier is 10-3 to the Over in its last 13 games.
- The over/under is set at 151.5, and with both teams’ trends, the Over could be in play.
Where Texas struggles with turnovers and fouls, Xavier thrives on efficiency. The Musketeers shoot 79.2% from the free-throw line, a number that could be crucial in a tight game. If Xavier controls the ball and dictates tempo, it will be difficult for Texas to disrupt their flow.
#Texas men's basketball in Dayton ahead of the first four.
Sights and sounds from the Longhorns' practice today ahead of their game vs. Xavier⤵️
More tonight on @KXAN_News | #HookEm pic.twitter.com/woaQDgb82w
— Noah Gross (@noah_gross27) March 18, 2025
The Dayton Factor
One more element could swing this game in Xavier’s favor: location.
Dayton, Ohio is just a short drive from Xavier’s campus in Cincinnati. Expect a heavy Musketeer crowd inside UD Arena, along with neutral fans who often side with the underdog—or in this case, the team closest to home.
Texas, meanwhile, comes from the deepest conference in the country, as the SEC sent 14 of 16 teams to the NCAA Tournament. But Texas was team No. 14, the last squad in from the conference. Did the Longhorns deserve their spot?
We’re about to find out.
Earned our spot.#LetsGoX | ALL IN pic.twitter.com/8XQahdSDPk
— Xavier Basketball (@XavierMBB) March 17, 2025
Best Bets: Xavier -155
I like Xavier in this one. A team finding its stride at just the right moment, fueled by the rise of a star stepping fully into his moment.
Ryan Conwell.
The Xavier guard has been electric down the stretch, his game rising with the stakes. Five straight performances of 20 or more points. A dazzling 38-point showcase against Marquette in the Big East Tournament, the kind of effort that demands attention.
A marksman from deep, Conwell has drilled 40% of his threes, but his evolution goes beyond the jumper. With the ball in his hands more, he’s become a creator, a playmaker, a force that defenses now have to scheme around.
March is built for players like this. Rising at the right time, refusing to fade.
