Very little of the 2023 Women’s World Cup has lived up to the expectations many had before it began.
For starters, the U.S. women’s national team made its earliest exit instead of gunning for a three-peat; powerhouses like Germany, Brazil and Canada crashed out before the knockouts; and World Cup debutant Morocco made its way into the round of 16.
But one expectation this tournament has lived up to is that this would be the most competitive Women’s World Cup yet. The worries of expanding to 32 teams too soon have been erased as competition has been fierce, and new contenders have emerged.
Going into the quarterfinals, that still holds true. Colombia is making its deepest run, France has finally returned to the quarterfinals after crashing out early in the past two World Cups and Japan has surprised the world as the most complete team so far.
In the spirit of the unpredictability this tournament has embodied, here is why each team could win the World Cup and why each team could lose in our latest power rankings.
8. Colombia
Richard Callis/IMAGO
Previous ranking: No. 9
Round of 16: Beat Jamaica, 1–0
Quarterfinals: vs. England, Saturday, 6:30 a.m. ET
Teenage sensation Caicedo has taken the world by storm, leading Colombia to its first World Cup quarterfinal in electric fashion. Her ingenuity in the box and clinical finishing make her one of the most intriguing, and punishing, strikers in the tournament. Should Colombia pull off one of the biggest upsets in soccer history, and hoist the World Cup trophy, then it will need Caicedo to show up and show up big. With that being said, while she is the team’s determining factor, there are certainly other tools in Colombia’s toolbox—including Catalina Usme, who scored the squad’s game-winner over Jamaica in the round of 16. The Powerpuff Girls not only have plenty of players with menacing technical abilities, but as a whole, they’ve remained disciplined, conceding just two goals all tournament.
Why it could lose: Inexperience on the big stageThe way Colombia is playing, it’s hard to believe that the 2023 tournament marks only the team’s third World Cup appearance. But the quarterfinal round is uncharted territory for Colombia, and with that comes new tests and a steep learning curve. While the Powerpuff Girls have shown composure, the later stages of the World Cup will put any inconsistencies under a microscope. Nelson Abadía’s squad successfully shut down Jamaica’s Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, and neutralized Germany’s attack—whether the team’s defense can maintain its sharpness and organization will determine the length of Colombia’s dream World Cup run.
7. Sweden
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Previous ranking: No. 6
Round of 16: Beat U.S. in PKs (5–4 after a 0–0 draw)
Quarterfinals: vs. Japan, Friday, 3:30 a.m. ET
No team has finished third at the Women’s World Cup more than Sweden, and only the U.S. and Germany have appeared in more semifinals than the Swedes’ five. What does this have to do with this current team? Nothing more than pedigree and a been-there-done-that mentality, but at this point in the knockout stage, experience and expectation like that can be a factor that pushes an evenly fought match over the edge. But the core of this current Sweden team was present on its third-place team from 2019 and its silver medal team at the Tokyo Olympics, meaning this squad is primed for the big time.
Why it could lose: Yet to perform against top-tier oppositionOther than Group A, the Swedes arguably come from the weakest group at the World Cup. Until the round-of-16 clash against the U.S., Sweden had not faced a top-tier side in women’s soccer. The team struggled mightily against South Africa in the group opener before its comeback victory and then hardly pushed the U.S. until its penalty-kick shootout win. Against an expertly organized Japanese side with a lightning-fast counterattack, that is cause for concern. Even though Sweden is the top-ranked nation in the quarterfinals, it won’t be the favorite against Japan—and it hasn’t shown that it can outplay better top opposition.
6. Netherlands
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Previous ranking: No. 3
Round of 16: Beat South Africa, 2–0
Quarterfinals: vs. Spain, Thursday, 9 p.m. ET
The Dutch have proven themselves as some of the most formidable defenders at the World Cup. They have shuttered every attack they’ve faced so far, including the USWNT’s star-studded lineup, and have conceded only one goal the entire tournament. The Netherlands’ hyperorganized defensive setup, built around Jackie Groenen’s distribution and IQ as a defensive midfielder, was on full display in a 2–0 win over an upstart South African side. Manager Andries Jonker is the architect of that defense and will surely have studied the way Japan constructed a crushing lower-block defensive strategy to stymie Spain’s creativity in the Group C finale. The Dutch will surely be counting on the old adage of “defense wins championships.”
Why it could lose: Missing firepowerUnfortunately for the Dutch, no matter how good your defense is, you still have to score goals to advance. Outside of an outlier 7–0 victory over Vietnam, the Netherlands has struggled to replace injured star striker Vivianne Miedema with only four goals in its other three games. Meanwhile, the Dutch have yet to run into a team that controlled more possession than they did; that is about to change against Spain’s tiki-taka, possession-hoarding style. Spain has kept an average of 76% possession from its four matches, and there’s no telling what kind of pressure that is going to put on a Dutch side used to controlling the pace of play. Add the suspension of star midfielder Daniëlle van de Donk, and the odds are slim in the quarterfinals.
5. Australia
IMAGO/Eibner
Previous ranking: No. 8
Round of 16: Beat Denmark, 2–0
Quarterfinals: vs. France, Saturday, 3 a.m. ET
Kerr made her triumphant return to the pitch, after weeks sidelined with a calf injury, checking into the Matildas’ round-of-16 matchup against Denmark in the 80th minute. Australian fans roared as the star striker strode onto the field, with Kerr helping her side close out a decisive 2–0 victory in her 2023 World Cup debut. The truth is, however, that the Matildas have managed quite well without their captain up until this point, registering back-to-back shutouts against Canada and Denmark.
Clocking only 10 minutes of playing time so far this tournament, it’s likely Kerr still needs to work up to full fitness, but should she regain her form, Australia is a real threat to go all the way. If the squad can manage to sustain the discipline it’s shown over the past two games while integrating Kerr’s dangerousness—especially on the counter—then the Matildas are in a good position to take it to France in the quarterfinals.
Why it could lose: The host’s curseSince the first Women’s World Cup in 1991, only one host has won the tournament, with the U.S. hoisting the trophy in ’99. In fact, no host, aside from the U.S., has ever advanced past the quarterfinals. Will Australia finally break that curse? Sometimes the pressure of playing at home is simply too overwhelming, while other teams bask in the bright lights that come with home field advantage. So far, Australia has seemed to revel in the outsized attention, relishing the record-breaking crowds. While the Matildas haven’t played perfectly this tournament, they have shown grit—maybe that, in addition to the homegrown support, is enough to make it over the finish line.
4. France
IMAGO/Xinhua
Previous ranking: No. 5
Round of 16: Beat Morocco, 4–0
Quarterfinals: vs. Australia, Saturday, 3 a.m. ET
France is firing on all cylinders, charging to a comprehensive 4–0 win over World Cup debutant Morocco in the round of 16. The team’s strikers appear in peak form, continuing to garner momentum as the tournament wears on, with Kadidiatou Diani notching four goals and three assists, while Eugénie Le Sommer’s goals total climbs to three. Kenza Dali has been sensational, as well, connecting with the forward line from the midfield while making shrewd runs into the box.
Hervé Renard is pulling the strings of a dynamic Swiss Army knife attack, with plenty of weapons at his disposal. Lethal in transition, in the buildup, in the air and on set pieces (Wendie Renard at 6'2" is a particularly potent threat on corner kicks), opponents will have their hands full with Les Bleues and their many ways to score.
Why it could lose: Big tournament track recordA persistent narrative has followed this French team: Despite having top talent, it has a hard time taking the next step in big tournaments. Les Bleues’ best World Cup result is a fourth-place finish in 2011, and they’ve failed to advance past the quarterfinals in the past two tournaments. Similarly, at the Olympics, France has never made the podium, and its best Euros result is a semifinal appearance after three straight quarterfinal runs. This World Cup campaign, however, has a different leader at the helm, with Renard replacing Corinne Diacre (who was France’s manager since ’17) just months ahead of the tournament. It’s no secret that the players and Diacre had a contentious relationship, and maybe a new coach will be the difference-maker in Les Bleues finally breaking through to the next level.
3. Spain
IMAGO/AAP
Previous ranking: No. 7
Round of 16: Beat Switzerland, 3–1
Quarterfinals: vs. Netherlands, Thursday, 9 p.m. ET
Where the Netherlands is lacking in star power, Spain has it in spades. Back-to-back Ballon d’Or Fémenin winner Alexia Putellas is getting better with every match as she continues her recovery from an ACL injury—and a massive knockout-stage clash seems like the perfect occasion to release her full potential. Meanwhile, Spain also has the current Ballon d’Or favorite in Aitana Bonmatí, a ferocious do-it-all midfielder who scored twice in La Roja’s 5–1 dismantling of Switzerland in the round of 16. Bonmatí is one of three (!) Spanish players with three goals at the World Cup so far along with Alba Redondo and Jenni Hermoso. Don’t be surprised if these stars lead Spain from its first quarterfinal appearance to its first World Cup title.
Why it could lose: Imposter syndrome against the greatsThe big question mark hovering over Spain is what happens when it meets an organized team equipped to dig in against its possession-based style? We saw the answer in La Roja’s shocking 4–0 loss to Japan to close out the group stage, where Japan sat back and struck on the counterattack with incredible efficiency. From here on out, Spain will only meet teams that have the depth, talent and defensive organization to do what Japan did: the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, followed by Japan or Sweden in the semifinals and then potentially England or France in the final. There isn’t much faith in Spain manager Jorge Vilda as a leader nor as a tactician, but Thursday we’ll get a firsthand look at how much he’s adapted the team since that stunning loss.
2. England
IMAGO/NurPhoto
Previous ranking: No. 1
Round of 16: Beat Nigeria in PKs (4–2 after 0–0 draw)
Quarterfinals: vs. Colombia, Saturday, 6:30 a.m. ET
England manager Sarina Wiegman has been praised through the start of this World Cup for her adaptability, showing a readiness to shift game plans match to match. The team’s tactical flexibility and ability to play under different shapes has proved to be its greatest weapon, as the Lionesses remain undefeated through four games. England—even as it struggled against Nigeria—looks incredibly disciplined and organized under Wiegman, conceding just one goal in its four games. Critically, the Lionesses have also now survived a nail-biting penalty shootout, hardening the squad as the intensity of the tournament ramps up. Whatever has been thrown at this team, it has shown a capacity to adjust and solve the problem in front of it—a vital skill in winning a World Cup.
Why it could lose: Lauren JamesIt was the stomp heard around the world. In a moment of frustration during England’s round-of-16 matchup with Nigeria, James stepped on defender Michelle Alozie’s back, earning the 21-year-old a red card. The violent conduct means James will miss England’s quarterfinal match against Colombia and potentially more time depending on the discipline that FIFA pursues. James’s absence is a major blow to the Lionesses, with the young Chelsea star the team’s most prolific forward right now, logging three goals and three assists through the tournament. Now England must make up for James’s attacking creativity and flair, and the space she creates on and off the ball while drawing the attention of defenders. The likes of Chloe Kelly, who struck the game-winning PK for England, will need to step up with James on the sideline.
1. Japan
IMAGO/AAP
Previous ranking: No. 2
Round of 16: Beat Norway, 3–1
Quarterfinals: vs. Sweden, Friday, 3:30 a.m. ET
After a rollicking group stage, Japan is still the most impressive team at the World Cup so far. The nation cruised to a 3–1 win over Norway after going into halftime tied at 1 and never looked like it was under pressure. In fact, Japan never has been under pressure as the side has yet to trail at this World Cup. Its impressive counterattack tore Spain apart to the tune of 4–0 in the final group stage, and Japan only conceded its first goal of the entire tournament against Norway. Meanwhile, Japan has scored 14 goals at the tournament (3.5 goals per match), more than any other team. Everything is coming along perfectly for Japan, and there are no signs of slowing down.
Why it could lose: Weakness against more physical teamsThere have been few, if any, weaknesses displayed by Japan so far. With three clean sheets and a +13 goal differential, Japan’s defense has been near-perfect. Hinata Miyazawa is the tournament’s top scorer with five goals, and yet the team doesn’t overly rely on her. And Japan is battle-tested against some of Europe’s top teams. The only time it appeared to struggle was against a more physical team like Norway, which had the aerial prowess to stretch Japan’s backline. With Sweden scoring the most goals off set pieces at the World Cup, it’s obvious how the Swedes will try to attack. It might be their only way of shutting down Japan.
