When the world of women’s soccer ventured to Australia and New Zealand, putting itself in time zones ahead of most of the globe, we were prepared for lots of mental math and wacky start times. These teams were playing tomorrow, for us, today.
While the 2023 Women’s World Cup is being played in the future in a literal sense relative to our clocks back in the U.S., it also started to seem like there was a break in the time-space continuum as the tournament unfolded. Has the future of women’s soccer somehow time-traveled to our TV screens to surprise us all?
For those who have been paying attention all along, this is no glitch in the matrix. Women’s soccer has not flipped upside down since going Down Under. Countries around the world have finally started investing in a real way, and while there is still progress to be made, the future of the sport is here. And now we get to watch it unfold in a beautifully chaotic way.
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated (Horan); AAP/Imago (James); Aflosport/Imago (Miyazawa); Keith McInnes/SSP/Imago (James); Jose Breton/Imago (Putellas); Richard Wainwright/Imago (Caicedo); Zuma Wire/Imago (Renard)
This tournament was always going to be more competitive than World Cups of the past. But the mayhem that has unfolded these past two weeks has far outlived expectations. Canada, the reigning Olympic gold medalist, is already back in the Northern Hemisphere. Brazil, hoping to send off legend Marta on a high note in her sixth and final World Cup, failed to make it to the round of 16 for the first time since 1995. Germany, a two-time World Cup winner and longtime powerhouse of the sport, failed to qualify for the knockout stage for the first time, leading the way for debutant Morocco to get a spot in the round of 16.
And, probably most shocking of all, the U.S. women’s national team—which entered the World Cup as the heavy favorites—barely snuck into the knockout stage, finishing group play with just one win for the first time. While the rest of the world certainly seems to be catching up, a hobbled USWNT has stumbled. A typically poised squad used to setting the pace is watching its students try to outdo the master.
But if you think the pandemonium has reached its peak, don’t get too comfortable. The unpredictable group finishes have set up an intriguing round of 16, pitting some of the world’s best against each far earlier in the bracket than many predicted and also giving the underdogs a chance at making some deep runs. Keeping in mind both group play and what each team’s path to the final looks like, here is a feeble attempt at making sense of it all and aligning the threads of the future in our round-of-16 power rankings.
16. South Africa
Jose Breton/IMAGO
Group finish: second in Group G
Round of 16: vs. Netherlands, Saturday, 10 p.m. ET
South Africa stunned Italy, knocking Le Azzurre from the World Cup with a dramatic late-game winner from Thembi Kgatlana. The thrilling finish marked South Africa’s first World Cup win and secured Banyana Banyana their inaugural trip to the round of 16. “They fought like warriors. They fought like the heroines that we know they are. They fought to be historically remembered, and they’ve made history,” said manager Desiree Ellis after the game.
Banyana Banyana (like Jamaica and a handful of other teams competing in the 2023 World Cup) had a public dispute with the South African Football Association ahead of the tournament, with the team even sitting out of a July warmup match over compensation concerns. The standoff was reportedly resolved with a charity contributing to the team’s funding. Remarkably, South Africa overcame that setback to land a spot in the knockout stage, facing the Netherlands, which put the squad’s leaky defense under some serious pressure.
15. Morocco
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: second in Group H
Round of 16: vs. France, Tuesday, 7 a.m. ET
Entering as the tournament’s second-lowest ranked team (72nd) in the FIFA world rankings, the Atlas Lionesses shocked the sport with a stunning run to the knockout stage. After a 6–0 opening loss to Germany that was widely expected, Morocco bounced back with rousing wins against South Korea and Colombia to eliminate Germany in one of the biggest surprises of the year. Not bad for your first World Cup.
Much like the men’s World Cup in Qatar, Morocco will face off against France in a highly anticipated knockout match with a large portion of its squad either born in France or playing in the French league. France will be the heavy favorites, but Morocco will know that Les Bleues struggled in the group opener against Jamaica and is working out the kinks under a new manager. The Atlas Lionesses have already defied the odds while being dealt one of the harshest travel schedules in Australia; who’s to say they can’t continue that trend?
14. Denmark
Richard Wainwright/IMAGO
Group finish: second in Group D
Round of 16: vs. Australia, Monday, 6:30 a.m. ET
The Danes are into the knockout stage after a lackluster group-stage performance. Denmark sat back against England and made the European champions sweat for a 1–0 result, but the side did manage to secure two wins against China and Haiti. However, three goals in a relatively easy group will not do much to assuage fears over its attack. The good news is that Denmark conceded only one goal throughout the group stage thanks to its defensive tactics.
Up next for Denmark is a showdown against Australia in front of what is expected to be a massive crowd for the cohost in Sydney. Australia failed to impress until a gutsy performance in the group finale against Canada, but Denmark must be prepared for the return of star forward Sam Kerr, who is expected back after sitting out the group stage due to a calf injury. The road could be more difficult for Denmark, but it also won’t be easy given its current form.
13. Norway
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: second in Group A
Round of 16: vs. Japan, Saturday, 4 a.m. ET
The Norwegians have been the most unpredictable team at this World Cup, and that’s not necessarily a good thing. Norway opened the tournament with a stunning loss to cohost New Zealand and followed that with an unfocused goalless draw with Switzerland that saw the team sitting on the edge of elimination. But a 6–0 win against a World Cup debutant in the Philippines saw Norway advance to the knockouts on goal differential.
Meanwhile, star striker Ada Hegerberg has yet to shine and missed the finale with a groin injury, while Barcelona forward Caroline Graham Hansen overcame some early drama regarding her playing time to score in the group finale. Yet its defense has been one of the tournament’s most organized, conceding only one goal. The main question facing the squad is a simple one: Which Norway will show up against a first-rate Japanese side?
12. Jamaica
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: second in Group F
Round of 16: vs. Colombia, Tuesday, 4 a.m. ET
The Reggae Girlz are heading to the World Cup knockout stage for the first time, bouncing soccer giants Brazil in the process. Jamaica has overcome a lot to advance out of Group F, with the team resorting to crowdfunding to finance their World Cup journey. (The team issued a statement in June condemning the Jamaica Football Federation’s lack of financial support and resources.)
On the pitch, Jamaica has been impressively disciplined under manager Lorne Donaldson, registering three clean sheets through Group F action—even denying attacking titans France and Brazil. While there hasn’t been much in the way of goals, that will likely change with star striker Khadija “Bunny” Shaw—who was suspended from the team’s second game due to receiving a red card in the opener—garnering momentum. Now, the squad faces Colombia and will likely keep its stingy approach, paying special attention to an explosive Linda Caicedo. It will be a matchup to watch: Shaw and Caicedo going head-to-head as two of the most compelling forwards in the game right now.
11. Switzerland
Aaron Gillions/IMAGO
Group finish: won Group A
Round of 16: vs. Spain, Saturday, 1 a.m. ET
Switzerland may be one of the most unconvincing group winners in tournament history after a measly 2–0 win over the Philippines, and draws against Norway and cohost New Zealand. Throughout the entire group stage, the Swiss managed only those two goals, yet here they are in the round of 16 as surprise group winners. Their reward for advancing from the group was always going to be a difficult matchup, but few expected a daunting one with Spain as the second-place finisher.
The good news for Switzerland is that it has put together one of the most organized defensive showings at the World Cup. The team is one of only three yet to concede a goal, and it is sure to try to replicate the low-block defensive tactics that Japan successfully implemented against Spain in that 4–0 win to close out Group C. There’s more than a slim chance for the Swiss against Spain, and it all rides on how long they can stick to their defensive strategy.
10. Nigeria
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: second in Group B
Round of 16: vs. England, Monday, 3:30 a.m. ET
The Super Falcons were considered the underdogs heading into Group B, but now exit group play unbeaten and in second place behind tournament cohost Australia. While the upset may have put the world on notice, Nigeria was never in doubt. “Though it might have been a surprise to the rest of the world … it wasn’t as much of a shock to us,” defender Michelle Alozie said of Nigeria’s World Cup success during a press conference.
Asisat Oshoala has been a standout player for the Super Falcons, scoring the winner against the Matildas in one of the most thrilling moments from group action. The veteran forward is dangerous in the final third, often glued to opponents’ back lines, attracting the attention of defenses and creating opportunities for her teammates. With the squad in convincing form, Nigeria may not be the favorite to take out England, but an upset certainly isn’t out of the picture.
9. Colombia
Hu Jingchen/IMAGO
Group finish: won Group H
Round of 16: vs. Jamaica, Tuesday, 4 a.m. ET
Meet Linda Caicedo. The 18-year-old sensation has officially introduced herself to the world on one of the sport’s grandest stages. Caicedo is considered by many to be one of the up-and-coming generation’s top talents, but if her 2023 World Cup is any indication, her time is now. Scoring the goal of the tournament to date, Caicedo helped Colombia to a stunning upset over Germany just one match after striking a banger to lead her side past South Korea.
A 1–0 loss to Morocco is the only blemish from Colombia’s otherwise remarkable start to the tournament, with Nelson Abadía’s team finishing atop Group H. The first-place finish sets up an evenly matched, if not favorable, round-of-16 clash with Jamaica. If Colombia can shore up its defense, neutralizing Jamaica’s star attacker Shaw, while continuing to build its energized attack, then a quarterfinal berth is certainly within reach.
8. Australia
Sydney Low/IMAGO
Group finish: won Group B
Round of 16: vs. Denmark, Monday, 6:30 a.m. ET
The World Cup cohost secured its place in the knockout round in assertive fashion, thrashing Canada 4–0, bouncing the reigning Olympic gold medalist from the tournament. The shutout served as a powerful statement, with Australia looking far from unflappable in early group action (falling to an in-form Nigeria team and barely beating Ireland in its opener).
A critical piece has been missing for the Matildas, though, as Sam Kerr has yet to take the pitch during the World Cup, with the Chelsea striker injuring her calf in a training session ahead of their first match. Kerr was deemed fit to play against Canada but remained on the bench—that likely won’t be the case Monday against Denmark. The 29-year-old is expected to make her 2023 World Cup debut in the knockout matchup, much to the delight of the host nation (cue the signature backflips). Kerr’s presence is a game-changer for the Matildas, with the Australia captain one of the best and most dangerous forwards in the world, often able to make something out of nothing.
7. Spain
Jose Breton/IMAGO
Group finish: second in Group C
Round of 16: vs. Switzerland, Saturday, 1 a.m. ET
La Roja entered the tournament as one of the outside favorites, a popular dark-horse pick given the return of Alexia Putellas and the team’s entertaining possession-based style. But after cruising to easy wins against Costa Rica and Zambia, Spain was given a rude awakening of just how far it still has to go to become world class in a 4–0 rout by Japan. And yet, the second-place finish in Group C may just come back around to favor La Roja.
Spain avoided the giants on its side of the bracket and will face an untested Switzerland side in the round of 16 and then, if it prevails, likely the Netherlands in the quarterfinals. Things could have been a lot worse, and many will still have Spain favored to reach the semifinals once it figures out how to combat its opponents’ low-block strategy. With talent like Putellas, Aitana Bonmatí and Jenni Hermoso, don’t be surprised to see La Roja come back with a fury and make that evasive semifinal run.
6. Sweden
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: won Group G
Round of 16: vs. U.S., Sunday, 5 a.m. ET
Sweden has a tendency to show up in big tournaments, and the 2023 World Cup has been no different, with the reigning Olympic silver medalist winning Group G with nine points. Peter Gerhardsson’s group has yet to really be tested, defeating South Africa, Italy and Argentina with relative ease. That will all change, however, when Sweden faces off against reigning champions the U.S. on Sunday.
With Sweden able to rest nine of its starters in the team’s Group G finale, the squad charges to the round of 16 on fresh legs and with plenty of certitude. Look for veteran Kosovare Asllani to put the USWNT’s struggling Rose Lavelle–less midfield under immense pressure, as Sweden, smelling blood in the water, is presented with a decent opportunity to knock off the four-time World Cup winners.
5. France
Chris Putnam/IMAGO
Group finish: won Group F
Round of 16: vs. Morocco, Tuesday, 7 a.m. ET
After a slow start to the group stage with a scoreless draw against Jamaica, Les Bleues are now trending in the right direction. France found a new gear with a gutsy 2–1 win over Brazil thanks to goals from veteran leaders Eugénie Le Sommer and Wendie Renard. Then, France found its firepower with a six-goal showing against Panama behind a Kadidiatou Diani hat trick.
Rather than being rewarded for its top-of-the-group finish, France faces a showdown against Germany in the round of 16. Still, this French side looks up to the task. The key to remember is that, despite the numerous injuries to its core, this is an incredibly deep squad that is still getting used to an accomplished manager hired only four months ago. Every game Les Bleues play together, they return stronger—and that is a dangerous prospect for a skilled team with an open route to the semifinals.
4. U.S.
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: second in Group E
Round of 16: vs. Sweden, Sunday, 5 a.m. ET
Where do we even start with the USWNT? The team’s run at a historic three-peat began with its worst group-stage showing at the World Cup and its lowest-ever point total. After a lackluster 3–0 win over Vietnam, the U.S. was lucky to steal a point off the Netherlands and then was nearly eliminated by Portugal in a tepid scoreless draw. Uninspired, apathetic and unorganized are all words that come to mind about the group stage.
But these are, after all, the back-to-back champions with plenty of knockout-stage experience, and that alone deserves respect. Much like Argentina and Lionel Messi’s triumph in December, maybe all this powerhouse needs is a group-stage wake-up call to power a legendary run to glory. And a legendary run is exactly what will be required with third-ranked Sweden, Japan and the Netherlands or Spain likely waiting along the path to the final. The talent is there, the time is now and the main question is not how the Americans start the tournament but how they end it.
3. Netherlands
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Group finish: won Group E
Round of 16: vs. South Africa, Saturday, 10 p.m. ET
The Dutch enter the round of 16 as the winners of Group E, spoiling the USWNT’s quest of claiming the group (and the more favorable draw). Squeezing by Portugal, drubbing Vietnam and drawing with the U.S., the Netherlands moves into the next phase of the World Cup with some serious confidence. It’s been a dream start for the Oranje, especially considering the team is without its star, Arsenal striker Vivianne Miedema (who missed the trip due to an ACL injury), and is just one year into the tenure of new manager Andries Jonker.
The squad’s constricted three-wide back line will likely be tested against stronger opponents, but for now, the Dutch can celebrate conceding just one goal in three group-stage games. With a winnable knockout matchup against South Africa, the Netherlands’ early results have put it in an enviable position going forward.
2. Japan
IMAGO
Group finish: won Group C
Round of 16: vs. Norway, Saturday, 4 a.m. ET
No team has put together a more formidable group-stage performance than Japan. With nine points from three confident wins, 11 goals scored and zero goals conceded, Japan emerged as a top contender after many had written the side off in favor of a new European wave of heavyweights. Japan made a statement by making an example out of one of the tournament’s trendiest picks in Spain, unveiling a tactical gem against back-to-back Ballon d’Or Féminin winner Alexia Putellas and Spain’s mesmerizing tika-taka style.
A difficult road to the Aug. 20 final awaits, which starts with a mercurial Norway side and follows with a quarterfinal meeting against the U.S. or Sweden. But based on results alone, Japan is the hottest team at the tournament, and its defensive organization and lightning-quick counter can create the perfect storm Down Under to devastate the so-called favorites.
1. England
Keith McInnes/IMAGO
Group finish: won Group D
Round of 16: vs. Nigeria, Monday, 3:30 a.m. ET
Two different England teams have emerged in this World Cup: one with Lauren James on the bench and one with the 21-year-old sensation on the pitch. Manager Sarina Wiegman started James in the Lionesses’ group-stage matches against Denmark and China after utilizing the star striker as a substitute in the squad’s opener against Haiti. The move paid off in dividends, with James scoring the deciding lone goal over Denmark before pouring in two goals and three assists to lift England to an emphatic 6–1 victory over China.
With Wiegman and Lionesses adjusting well game-to-game and James in peak form, England heads to the knockout stage as the team to beat. Nigeria awaits in the round of 16—a fearsome opponent, but a matchup that favors the Lionesses—only boosting the team’s odds of capturing its inaugural World Cup title.
