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The Independent UK

Sport

Jack Rathborn

Betting odds World Cup 2022: Tips for winner, golden boot and more

Brazil (Organization) Lionel Messi World Cup Cristiano Ronaldo Lautaro Martinez Jamal Musiala Argentina Harry Kane Julian Alvarez Luka Modric

The World Cup is here with 32 teams arriving in Qatar eyeing up glory.

This feels like a wide-open tournament with the climate still a factor despite shifting the dates to the cooler winter temperatures in the region, with games set to be played in over 20 degrees.

The frantic build-up and alien schedule for international players looking to peak at the mid-way point of the season is also likely to become a wildcard.

Those sides with extra depth, not to mention an ability to harness up to five substitutions in regular time with a sixth change in extra-time, could thrive into the second week and beyond in Qatar.

Here we take a look at the odds and best bets to make on the winner, golden ball and golden boot:

Winner

Brazil certainly have the best XI on paper, with very few weaknesses, even if their full-backs are possibly as weak as they have been in 30 years. The Selecao have conceded three times in 10 matches though, proving Tite has adequately shielded those areas with extra threat in the wide areas through Vinicius Jr and Raphinha concerning opponents, plus Fred and Casemiro’s instinct to cut out the danger in transition.

We like Argentina as a value play here (7/1) though, with Lionel Messi the obvious star man and match winner. The Albiceleste are unbeaten in 35 matches entering the tournament and with Lisandro Martinez thriving at Manchester United, they have a defence capable of shutting out opponents, not to mention the surprise boost of Paulo Dybala winning his fitness race to complement Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, who has seen much-needed gametime just in time for Qatar after Erling Haaland’s injury.

Serbia could emerge as a dark horse and may represent eachway value at 60/1, with Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic able to cause a nuisance for any defence. Dragan Stojković’s side may take inspiration from Croatia’s surprise run to the final last time out, with an enticing draw: Cameroon and Switzerland are the competition for a likely runner-up spot behind Brazil, then the winners of Group H would await (Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea or Ghana).

Lionel Messi is seeking to finally lift the World Cup trophy (AFP via Getty Images)

Winners

Via Betfair

Brazil - 4/1
France - 6/1
England - 13/2
Argentina - 7/1
Spain - 8/1
Germany - 9/1
Netherlands - 12/1
Belgium - 14/1
Portugal - 16/1
Denmark - 28/1
Uruguay - 40/1
Croatia - 40/1
Serbia - 60/1
Switzerland - 90/1
Mexico - 90/1
Senegal - 90/1
USA - 125/1
Wales - 125/1
Poland - 175/1
Ecuador - 250/1
South Korea - 300/1
Canada - 300/1
Ghana - 300/1
Japan - 300/1
Cameroon - 300/1
Morocco - 300/1
Iran - 500/1
Qatar - 500/1
Saudi Arabia - 500/1
Costa Rica - 500/1
Tunisia - 500/1
Australia - 500/1

Golden Boot

Argentina’s route to the final and a gentle start with Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland mean Lautaro Martinez represents good value at 25/1.

It’s been 20 years since the winner has scored more than six goals when Ronaldo hit eight in 2002, with the time before that in 1974 when Grzegorz Lato struck seven. This means anybody poised to have a shot at a hat-trick in the group stage should be seriously considered.

We’ll lead with Neymar, who can lean on penalties and may play centrally or with a free role off the left depending on Tite’s set-up for certain opponents.

Martinez feels a borderline outsider pick at 25/1, but the Inter Milan striker has just one goal in his last six Inter games leading into Qatar. Phil Foden is intriguing at 40/1 and while he represents risk without a guaranteed starting role for Southgate, the City star scores in bunches, with five in three or six in five earlier this season. There are also spells of three in five and three in four earlier in 2022 too, making him worth a small play that could return some eachway value.

Another young player not guaranteed a start but with the potential to find a hot streak, or rather in the middle of one, is Jamal Musiala (66/1) - more on him below. With five goals in his last seven Bayern starts, there could be great reward if he beats out Thomas Muller (50/1) for a start.

Advice: Look out for terms used by bookmakers between top scorer and golden boot winner. If it’s the former, you’ll be able to win or make a profit if the player is tied for most goals. But the golden boot will be handed out based on Fifa’s tie-breaking rules. The first of which goes to the player with fewer goals scored from penalties, the next one is the player with the most assists and the final one is the player with the least amount of time, which translates to the highest goal average.

Odds

Via Betfair

Harry Kane 7/1
Kylian Mbappe 8/1
Neymar 12/1
Karim Benzema 12/1
Lionel Messi 12/1
Cristiano Ronaldo 14/1
Romelu Lukaku 20/1
Vinicius Junior 25/1
Lautaro Martinez 25/1
Memphis Depay 25/1
Richarlison 30/1
Robert Lewandowski 33/1
Alvaro Morata 33/1
Kai Havertz 33/1
Ferran Torres 33/1
Raheem Sterling 33/1
Gabriel Jesus 33/1
Serge Gnabry 40/1
Joao Felix 40/1
Antoine Griezmann 40/1
Phil Foden 40/1
Luis Suarez 40/1
Darwin Nunez 40/1
Pablo Sarabia 40/1
Ansu Fati 40/1
Raphinha 40/1
Aleksandar Mitrovic 50/1
Edinson Cavani 50/1
Dusan Vlahovic 50/1
Bruno Fernandes 50/1
Sadio Mane 50/1
Leroy Sane 50/1
Thomas Muller 50/1
Gareth Bale 50/1
Julian Alvarez 50/1
Cody Gakpo 50/1

Past winners

1930: Guillermo Stabile, Argentina – eight goals
1934: Oldrich Nejedly, Czech Republic – five goals
1938: Leonidas, Brazil – seven goals
1950: Ademir, Brazil – eight goals
1954: Sandor Kocsis, Hungary – 11 goals
1958: Just Fontaine, France – 13 goals
1962: Florian Albert, Hungary; Valentin Ivanov, Soviet Union; Garrincha, Brazil – four goals
1966: Eusebio, Portugal – six goals
1970: Gerd Muller, Germany – 10 goals
1974: Grzegorz Lato, Poland – seven goals
1978: Mario Kempes, Argentina – six goals
1982: Paolo Rossi, Italy – six goals
1986: Gary Lineker, England – six goals
1990: Salvatore Schillaci, Italy – six goals
1994: Oleg Salenko, Russia; Hristo Stoichkov, Bulgaria – six goals
1998: Davor Suker, Croatia – six goals
2002: Ronaldo, Brazil – eight goals
2006: Miroslav Klose, Germany – five goals
2010: Thomas Muller, Germany – five goals
2014: James Rodríguez, Colombia – six goals
2018: Harry Kane, England – six goals

Golden Ball

The award was won by Luka Modric last time out, ensuring that for a fifth successive edition of the tournament the winner came from a side that did not win the trophy.

A narrative award, it’s hard to imagine Messi (10/1) not winning this if he can guide Argentina to the final. Also, factor in this is not an award for defenders; German goalkeeper Oliver Kahn won it in 2002 but the only defender to win it was Uruguay’s Jose Nasazzi in 1930.

Outside of Messi, given the lack of winners coming from teams winning the World Cup recently, Kevin De Bruyne is of interest at 14/1, but remains a risky pick with Spain or Germany likely in his way in the last 16.

An outside shout could be Jamal Musiala, as potentially the best player in the Bundesliga entering the tournament after five goals in seven starts for Bayern heading into the tournament. The 18-year-old is deserving of greater responsibility with Die Mannschaft, and at 66/1 he is tempting, with Pedri at the same price and showing plenty at Euro 2020, where he picked up the young player of the tournament award for standing out in the biggest games.

Jamal Musiala is one of the most exciting young players on show in Qatar (Getty Images)

Odds

Via Betfair

Kylian Mbappe 10/1
Lionel Messi 10/1
Neymar 10/1
Karim Benzema: 12/1
Kevin De Bruyne 14/1
Harry Kane 14/1
Vinicius Junior: 16/1
Raphinha 33/1
Cristiano Ronaldo 33/1
Gabriel Jesus 33/1
Phil Foden 40/1
Richarlison 40/1
Memphis Depay 40/1
Lautaro Martinez 40/1
Romelu Lukaku 40/1
Bernardo Silva 40/1
Christian Eriksen 40/1
Raheem Sterling 40/1
Antony 40/1
Leroy Sane 50/1
Antoine Griezmann 50/1

Jude Bellingham 50/1
Mason Mount 50/1
Ferran Torres 50/1
Serge Gnabry 50/1
Eden Hazard 50/1
Alvaro Morata 50/1
Bruno Fernandes 50/1
Bukayo Saka 50/1
Virgil Van Dijk 50/1
Rafael Leao 50/1
Ilkay Gundogan 50/1
Toni Kroos 50/1
Pedri 66/1
Julian Alvarez 66/1
Frenkie de Jong 66/1
Joao Cancelo 66/1
Luka Modric 66/1
Alisson 66/1
Kai Havertz 66/1
Thiago Silva 66/1
Angel Di Maria 66/1
Jamal Musiala 66/1

Past winners

2018: Luka Modric, Croatia
2014: Lionel Messi, Argentina
2010: Diego Forlán, Uruguay
2006: Zinedine Zidane, France
2002: Oliver Kahn, Germany
1998: Ronaldo, Brazil
1994: Romário, Brazil
1990: Salvatore Schillaci, Italy
1986: Diego Maradona, Argentina
1982: Paolo Rossi, Italy
1978: Mario Kempes, Argentina
1974: Johan Cruyff, Netherlands
1970: Pelé, Brazil
1966: Bobby Charlton, England
1962: Garrincha, Brazil
1958: Didi, Brazil
1954: Ferenc Puskás, Hungary
1950: Zizinho, Brazil
1938: Leônidas, Brazil
1934: Giuseppe Meazza, Italy
1930: José Nasazzi, Uruguay

Golden Glove

The award for the most outstanding goalkeeper (not the one with the most clean sheets), we like Belgium’s Thibaut Courtois to repeat here at 11/2, having proven his worth on the big stage for Real Madrid and the Red Devils in recent seasons.