The World Bank commended the recent developments in Yemen, describing them as a "glimmers of hope" provided by the UN-sponsored truce agreement, the transfer of power, and the $3.3 billion Saudi and Emirati financing package.
However, the World Bank said in a recent study that despite these encouraging developments, achieving a "full understanding of conditions on the ground is extremely challenging due to the lack of data, which remains scant and hard to collect in current security conditions."
It said Yemen's GDP contracted by 47 percent between 2011 and 2021.
The UN estimates that over half of Yemenis suffer from food insecurity at crisis levels that require urgent action to avoid malnutrition or starvation, and more than half of the 233,000 deaths by the end of 2020 alone were not directly caused by violence but rather were the indirect result of a lack of food, healthcare, or infrastructure.
The study noted that after eight years of military conflict, Yemen's economy remains "highly fragile."
Humanitarian needs are increasing due to compounding crises, and the already dire socio-economic conditions are worsening due to poor institutional capacity, uncoordinated policy decisions, and the duality of administrative establishments.
The study applied satellite-derived and geospatial data, statistical, and machine-learning models to assess the economic and environmental effects of the conflict in Yemen. This work combines data from various sources, including satellite-derived data on land use, climate, nighttime light production, and population.
It also used World Food Program (WFP) data on commodity prices, territorial control information provided by the Crisis Group, and conflict event and fatality data from The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
The results highlight vital economic differences in the territories controlled by the two main sides and reveal environmental factors influencing food prices.
Satellite data show a significant drop in nighttime light emissions in 2015, indicating a decrease in economic productivity in Yemen at the start of the conflict.
For instance, between early and mid-2015, total nighttime light radiance dropped over 60 percent in Aden governorate and over 90 percent in Sanaa City governorate.
"Many areas show a substantial increase in the emission of nighttime lights since 2015, which may reflect a gradual economic rebound as the private sector has progressively adapted to the new context, although the improvement has been uneven across the country."
By 2018 nighttime light levels in Aden rebounded to approximately 80 percent of pre-conflict radiance, but in Sanaa, radiance was still far below pre-conflict levels through 2021.
The study considered al-Hodeidah governorate as an excellent example of localized conflicts with nationwide economic effects, as the conflict there drove up food prices about 40 percent across Yemen until a truce was negotiated in December 2018.
