Workers are increasingly anxious about losing their jobs as executives threaten to replace them with AI, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey—but that still won't entice job hunters to lower their salary expectations for a new role.
Every quarter, the NY Fed asks about 1,000 people about their job situation and outlook—and the share of people who think they’re likely to be unemployed soon has reached a record high.
The survey found that 4.4% of respondents currently expect to lose their jobs in the near future. To put that into context, the only other time it’s ever hit 4% was when the pandemic struck in March 2020.
Despite fearing they may be jobless soon, today’s job seekers won’t accept less than $81,147—up by almost $20,000 since March 2020. This figure is the average reservation wage of workers, which is the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job.
Workers aren't expecting a promotion any time soon either
Workers aren't being wholly irrational about losing their jobs. The Fed's data comes as workers are increasingly facing threats to their livelihood because of AI and economic uncertainty—or as Korn Ferry put it in a recent report, the “perfect storm” for mass unemployment.
Klarna’s cofounder and CEO, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, recently indicated that he hopes AI will render 1,800 employees obsolete in the coming years. Meanwhile, the tech giant Cisco laid off thousands of workers this summer as it announced it was going to invest more in AI instead.
At the same time, the Fed’s report highlights that they are increasingly dissatisfied with the wages and promotion opportunities in their current roles. Women, people without a college degree and those with annual household incomes lower than $60,000 feel the least likely to land a promotion any time soon.
So it's no wonder workers fearing they're on a ticking time bomb are looking for a big payout from their next employer and to max out their earnings while they still can.
Joblessness fears won’t stop workers eyeing up the exit
Despite the bleak job market, more people are looking for a new job now than during The Great Resignation.
Nearly 30% of those surveyed by the Fed said that they have been job hunting—up from 19% last summer.
It marks the highest level recorded since March 2014, when 32% of professionals said they were looking for another job.
In comparison, in the Spring of 2021, when a record four million American workers quit their jobs, just over 20% of people the Fed surveyed were searching for new pastures.
What’s more, the rate of those transitioning to a new employer has hit the highest level ever at 7.1%. Again, during The Great Resignation fewer than 5% of people reported that they were enrolling with a new company.
A version of this story was originally published on Fortune.com on August 21, 2024.
