Ahead of a trio of massive top-10 matchups this week, the women’s NCAA tournament selection committee revealed its initial top 16 a month out from Selection Sunday.
While there was no overall head-turner from the overall order, perhaps the biggest shock for casual fans was the South Carolina Gamecocks not occupying the top spot as they have for much of the past few years under coach Dawn Staley. That’s reflective of the parity in college basketball at the top this season as well as the strength of their own league given that three SEC teams are in the top six.
We’ll have one more top 16 revealed on Feb. 27, but this snapshot look at what the committee is thinking is quite notable given how tightly packed many of the best résumés and teams are coming into the final few weeks of the regular season. There’s going to be plenty of jockeying happening among the big-brand names in particular, with several key matchups between potential No. 1 and No. 2 seeds on the docket before conference tournaments roll around and these rankings start to crystalize in the form of this year’s bracket.
Selection Committee’s Top 16
- UCLA Bruins
- South Carolina Gamecocks
- Texas Longhorns
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- USC Trojans
- LSU Tigers
- UConn Huskies
- NC State Wolfpack
- TCU Horned Frogs
- Duke Blue Devils
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Kansas State Wildcats
- Kentucky Wildcats
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Tennessee Volunteers
Today's Top 16 Reveal sets the stage.
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessWBB) February 16, 2025
➡️ Here's a look at the latest mock bracket.#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/XrxV5RMFn7
Here are a few takeaways from the early set of committee rankings:
Notre Dame must be miffed at being the last No. 1 seed
The Irish are undefeated in the continental United States this season, are 22–2 overall behind national player of the year candidate Hannah Hidalgo and sit second in the AP poll. They also have to be a little upset as the final No. 1 seed and projected in one of the two Spokane regionals in a bit of an unfavorable draw—behind Texas, which they beat in overtime in December.
Notre Dame’s résumé has just one glaring weakness that seems to be overly weighing the team down: two losses at the Cayman Islands Classic in the first month of the season to TCU and the unranked Utah Utes. The two teams are a combined 43–8, but you would think such a schedule would be balanced out by Notre Dame’s impressive victories on the road, including USC and North Carolina. Niele Ivey’s group has the fourth-best offense (87.6 ppg) and is one of just three teams in the sport to shoot over 50% from the field this season.
There are three ranked opponents (vs. Duke, at NC State and vs. the Florida State Seminoles) left, so the Irish can still lock down a more favorable one-seed path. But there might be some talk inside the locker room about a bit of disrespect after a pretty impressive season so far in South Bend.
USC has the opportunity to move up
The competition for the No. 1 seeds is as great as ever, but USC has a good shot at ensuring it can slide up a few spots in the committee’s overall seed list in the coming weeks.
The Trojans’ upset of their crosstown rival last week didn’t quite boost them up to the top seed line. But there’s still a great chance at a favorable draw that includes staying on the West Coast next month. They will see UCLA at least once, if not twice, over the coming three weeks and also have a home game against a ranked Michigan State Spartans squad. The no-show on the road at the Iowa Hawkeyes is the only thing that seems to be holding the résumé back. If JuJu Watkins keeps playing like she did at the Galen Center against the Bruins, that might be a good enough reason for the committee to slot one of the tournament favorites slightly higher.
UCLA remains in line to capture the top overall seed
Despite finally getting that initial blemish on its record with a loss at USC, UCLA remains well in line to grab that top overall seed in the tournament if it gets back to its winning ways. That November victory over South Carolina carries a lot of weight, and there’s obviously a big statement to be made if it can extract a measure of revenge against the Trojans to close the regular season.
One thing that could also help Cori Close’s team is the Big Ten tournament. The lack of road wins against top-tier competition is one of the biggest question marks about the Bruins right now. They have plenty of marquee victories and feature one of the best players in the country in Lauren Betts. Still, they could stand to nab some additional wins over ranked teams when they reach Indianapolis to cement their hold on that most coveted of No. 1 seeds.
NC State has a slim margin to stay on the two-seed
The Wolfpack are on the committee’s second line in the bracket, but they also might be in the most tenuous position of any potential No. 2 seed. While they have some notable wins, such as beating Duke and recently blowing out a ranked FSU team on the road, the résumé is still a bit lacking overall—especially with a head-to-head loss to the TCU team sitting right behind them at No. 9 overall in the rankings.
NC State won’t lack opportunities to solidify that place … or see it quickly fade away over the coming days. The Wolfpack head to North Carolina for a massive ACC clash and host a ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets team in between a game against Notre Dame on Saturday. Throw in a stacked conference tournament in a few weeks and the margin for error seems even slimmer than usual for one of the game’s most consistent programs.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Women’s College Hoops Top 16: Four Takeaways From Selection Committee Reveal.
