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Golf Monthly

Sport

Matt Cradock

WM Phoenix Open Picks, Predictions And Odds

WM Phoenix Open Jordan Spieth Justin Thomas Phoenix Sungjae I PGA Tour Golf Hideki Matsuyama Scottie Scheffler Tom Kim

A general shot of the WM Phoenix Open, with three players inside three circles.

After Rory McIlroy's victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, we are straight into another huge event at the WM Phoenix Open.

Known as "The Greatest Show on Grass," the tournament is recognized as the rowdiest on the PGA Tour's calendar and draws in hundreds of thousands of spectators on what is also Super Bowl weekend.

Over 500,000 fans are expected to be present over the week of action (Image credit: Getty Images)

Last year, Nick Taylor defeated Charley Hoffman in an epic playoff when the Canadian birdied three of the last four holes in regulation, before birdieing the 18th both times to win a fourth PGA Tour title.

In 2025, Taylor returns to defend, whilst the likes of World No.1 Scottie Scheffler makes an appearance as he searches for a third WM Phoenix Open title in four years. The American made his first appearance of 2025 at Pebble Beach last week, securing a T9 finish following hand surgery in late December.

Among the other big names are Justin Thomas, FedEx Cup leader Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, the Hojgaard twins and Max Homa, as well as several others.

Being one of the most recognized tournaments of the year, three of the Golf Monthly team have scoured the field to bring you their betting picks for what should be a great week of action.

WM Phoenix Open Course Guide: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course

After two coastal courses of Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, the WM Phoenix Open takes place at TPC Scottsdale, which is located in the Sonoran Desert and surrounded by the stunning McDowell Mountains.

Opened in the mid 1980s, TPC Scottsdale has two courses - Champions and Stadium - with the latter staging the WM Phoenix Open since 1987. Prior to that, the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club and Arizona Country Club.

Measuring around 7,300 yards, the par 71 layout is famous for the par 3 16th hole, which is known as 'The Coliseum'. Measuring just 160-yards, the hole provides a stadium atmosphere and will have around 20,000 rowdy fans a day surrounding it during tournament week.

Along with the 16th, the par 4 17th is one of the best risk-and-reward holes on the PGA Tour and often plays a huge part in deciding the tournament. What's more, it's the only par 4 that has seen a hole-in-one in PGA Tour history, when Andrew Magee made an ace in 2001.

In terms of the hardest hole on the course, the par 4 11th played over-par last year and is, arguably, the most demanding tee shot at TPC Scottsdale, with water guarding the fairway left. Two of the four par 3s also played over-par last year.

Scoring-wise, over the past decade, the winning score is around the mid-to-late teens, with the one exception being Phil Mickelson in 2013 when he shot a joint tournament record of 28-under.

Finally, TPC Scottsdale seems to produce multiple-time winners. Over the past decade Brooks Koepka won in 2015 and 2021, Hideki Matsuyama in 2016 and 2017, as well as Scheffler in 2022 and 2023.

WM Phoenix Open Previous Winners

WM Phoenix Open Betting Odds

Outright winner odds from BetMGM (odds correct at time of publishing)

Scottie Scheffler (+275)
Justin Thomas (+1200)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
Sam Burns (+2000)
Sungjae Im (+2000)
Corey Conners (+3300)
Tom Kim (+3500)
Sepp Straka (+4000)
Sahith Theegala (+4500)
Byeong Hun An (+5000)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+5500)
Billy Horschel (+5500)
Si Woo Kim (+5500)
Rasmus Hojgaard (+6000)
Kurt Kitayama (+6000)
Robert MacIntyre (+6000)

WM Phoenix Open Betting Picks

Favorite: Tom Kim (+3500)

Tom Kim will have left Pebble Beach gutted after a poor drive on the final hole cost him a bogey and dropped him from a potential T3 finish down to T7. However, Kim is playing very good golf right now, having finished 2nd twice in his last six starts, as well as that disappointing T7 on Sunday.

He’s currently on a 15-month win drought, which is far too long for a player of his calibre, so I expect him to be challenging again this week at a venue where he was T17 last year.

Outsider: Jordan Spieth (+6600)

Jordan Spieth is making just his second start back from wrist surgery last August so I admit it may be a little early in his recovery to back him. However, I believe he can go on and contend as a fully fit Spieth is one of the world’s best players, and he comes into this week off the back of four tournament rounds and a very promising five-under-par 67 on Sunday.

The three-time Major winner loves it in Phoenix, with a T6 here in each of his last two starts. He was also T4 in 2021, T9 in 2017 and T7 in 2015, so he has played very well at TPC Scottsdale through the years. I'll admit that it’s going to a be a stretch to win the title this week but I wouldn’t put anything past an injury-free Jordan.

Favorite: Sungjae Im (+2000)

I'll be honest I'm stuck between choosing Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama, but I've opted for Im as I feel he is better value at +2000, with the South Korean star producing two top 4s in his last four starts.

Looking back at tournament form, Im finished T6 in 2023 and, although he finished T66 last year, I feel his recent results, and the fact he's played well in Phoenix before, puts him in good stead on a golf course that suits his overall game.

Outsider: Jake Knapp (+20000)

I admit that Knapp's odds are high but, in the last few weeks he has started to show signs of his old form, finishing just outside the top 30 at the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach.

Last year, he finished T28 in this event and followed it up with a win at the Mexico Open, showing good form around this time of year. What's more, he lives in Scottsdale and TPC Scottsdale is actually his home track, which is a positive sign for someone sitting at +20000.

Favorite: Justin Thomas (+1100)

Scottie Scheffler is the bookmakers' favorite for this event, and perhaps rightly so. However, after he was occasionally victim to a right miss and a lukewarm putter on his first start back at Pebble Beach, I'm feeling more confident in Justin Thomas to get it done this week.

The University of Alabama graduate has two runner-up finishes and a third in his past four starts, with the central reason for his extreme rise in form almost exclusively down to improved putting stats. Add in a superb record at the WM Phoenix Open, which includes seven consecutive top-20 finishes, three of which were inside the top-five, and you'd have to be fairly confident of another good result from Thomas in 2025.

Outsider: Maverick McNealy (+6600)

McNealy is almost the definition of 'streaky' as all parts of his game rarely play ball at the same time. However, when it all comes together, he is a real dark horse.

If he can return to the kind of putting form with which he made his name and landed a first PGA Tour title late last year, the T6 result here in 2024 could be repeated this week.