When public servants in Sydney were told to rug up if they planned to work in the office this week, the reality of the country’s energy crisis hit hard.
Experts have warned for years the federal government’s multiple failures to properly manage the transition in the national energy market would have consequences. Now they are plain for all to see.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is confronting a national energy crisis less than a month into the job, with a perfect storm of factors – including Russia’s war in Ukraine 15,000km away – exposing shortcomings in the system.
Albanese and his energy minister, Chris Bowen, have repeatedly said there are no quick fixes for a problem that has been years in the making. The PM has said the situation is an “incredible embarrassment” but has been steadfast in his response.
“We need to do exactly what we said we’d do,” Albanese says.
Everywhere the Labor leader looks at the moment he sees a crisis looming.
Whether it’s inflation and interest rate hikes, gas and energy shortages, the overwhelmed health system, or the climate emergency, there is a sense of being close to breaking point.
But just as Albanese resisted pressure during the last parliament to change his election strategy, he seems confident the best approach in his first term is to ensure there are no surprises – no sudden moves. He wants to play it safe.
He is so far resisting calls for a domestic gas reservation policy or a resources super profits tax despite the obvious popular appeal of such measures. But he’s saying most options remain on the table.
It’s within this context that the prime minister chose to visit central Queensland this week to hold a meeting of cabinet – and to talk about the transition to renewables.
Not long ago, travelling to coal country to talk about climate change in the middle of a national energy crisis would have been unthinkable for a Labor leader. So the trip speaks to Albanese’s growing confidence and the changed political climate that the visit proceeded without a hitch.
He followed up pineapple cabinet by formalising Australia’s commitment to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 through the signing of the government’s nationally determined contribution (NDC). Joined by the leaders of peak industry groups and unions, it was a powerful symbol of the change that comes with a change of national government. It makes Australia’s more ambitious emissions reduction target a concrete one – with the NDC submitted to the UN this week.
Just as striking was Albanese’s embrace of the Nadesalingam family. Allowing them to return to Biloela was an act of kindness that resonates with the best instincts of the Australian community – and a marker of the values the new government wants to adopt.
Albanese’s plan to win the next election involves methodically delivering over the next 18 months on the promises made before the election, including on childcare reform, rewiring the nation, an integrity commission and the skills agenda.
But the current crises may enable a more ambitious reform agenda to be put forward before the 2025 election.
A text from a friend this week noted how “refreshing” it was to hear politicians speaking about policy problems rather than just bagging each other. For most people, the problems are not the problem, it’s the politics getting in the way of solutions that bothers them.
Naturally, the end of the election campaign has seen a notable dialling down of political hostility. This has been greeted with a sense of relief.
Albanese is aware people have conflict fatigue. A long decade of weaponised politics has degraded trust in public life and politicians, while doing little to improve the lives of voters.
On taking office, Albanese has stressed that he wants politics “to function differently” – for politics to be a respectful exchange of ideas rather than the usual bear pit. The establishment of a commonwealth integrity body will help with this mission to rehabilitate Canberra.
The latest Guardian Essential poll shows the prime minister has an enormous amount of public goodwill to succeed, with most people approving of the job he is doing so far.
Albanese is in a honeymoon phase, with a near nonexistent opposition, but he has the highest approval rating of any new leader since Kevin Rudd in 2007.
Paul Keating said he always believed in burning up the government’s political capital, “not being Mr Safe Guy, you know?” And while much of Keating’s capital may have been accumulated by Bob Hawke, this mindset allowed Labor to pursue an ambitious economic reform agenda despite public misgivings.
John Howard, too, sacrificed significant political capital to introduce a goods and service tax. The reform had significant opposition from the community and a hostile Senate, but ultimately the government’s conviction won out.
Rudd lost his chance at significant reform when he abandoned an emissions trading scheme despite being elected with a mandate to act – beginning the sorry saga of energy policy that continues to this day.
So what will Albanese do with such political capital and public goodwill?
Unlike Rudd, Albanese has the overwhelming support of his caucus and a keen eye on the party’s internals to ensure his chance at good government is not squandered.
His position is helped enormously by having a group of reform-minded, mostly Labor, state and territory leaders around the national cabinet table who recognise that Albanese may have a once-in-a-generation opportunity for reform.
And then there is the opposition. Peter Dutton – who held his first shadow cabinet meeting this week in Perth, where the Coalition suffered savage swings against it – is miles away from being able to form government holding just 56 seats in the House of Representatives.
Will Dutton’s notoriously pugilistic approach suit the times that Albanese is seeking to define? Or could this be another gift to the government, allowing Albanese to carve out a postive leadership role that leaves Dutton looking like a relic of the Abbott/Morrison era?
Albanese has an incredible opportunity to use his political capital to tackle the crises facing Australia.
In an interview with Guardian Australia this week, the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, spoke about his hopes that the Albanese government could usher in a new era of collaboration with the states.
“Any new government gets a bit of goodwill, it’s about what you do with it,” Andrews said. “It’s about how you repay the trust that has been placed in you.”
The coincidence of crises and political capital seems too good an opportunity for Albanese to waste.
