Parts of Australia could be gearing up for another drought, following the prediction of an El Niño event developing this winter, just months after major floods swept across the south-east of the country.
It's prompted experts across the Murray-Darling Basin to call for action to be taken to protect iconic environmental sites, such as the internationally recognised Coorong, from a warming climate.
The Bureau of Meteorology's May to July outlook shows most of Australia will be warmer and drier than average during this period, and the US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the chance of El Niño to above 90 per cent by August.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization said El Niño would also lead to global record-breaking temperatures in the next five years, with a 98 per cent chance one would be the warmest ever recorded.
While it doesn't always equate to a drought, the Bureau of Meteorology said the severe droughts of 1982, 1994, 2002, 2006, and 2015 were all associated with an El Niño event.
"The May to July outlook increases the chances of below-average rainfall for much of Australia," bureau climatologist Jonathon Pollock said.
"It's a very different outlook for the start of winter compared to the last three years … which all showed wetter conditions on account of La Niña."
It's good news for flood-affected areas in the Murray-Darling Basin such as South Australia's Riverland, where Renmark-Paringa Mayor Peter Hunter welcomed the low likelihood of another flood this year.
But he said it was important to prepare for all types of natural disasters, as they were never too far away.
"We need to consider floods, bushfires, droughts and storms, we need to think about every aspect of the potential damage," he said.
Commitment to Coorong
At the end of the Murray-Darling Basin is the Coorong, which has seen extensive droughts, floods and environmental devastation.
By the end of the Millennium drought in 2009, salinity levels in the Coorong's South Lagoon were five times higher than previous historical records showed.
Aquatic plants were replaced by algae, leading to a loss of food for waterbirds and habitat for a large variety of fish species.
The Department for Environment and Water's Living Murray program leader Adrienne Rumbelow said the Coorong was still recovering more than a decade later.
"Things have been recovering, but slowly, and we know that fresh water is the key to the health of the system," she said.
While the Coorong did receive a flush of fresh water during the summer floods, salinity levels were already climbing to pre-flood levels as SA Water prepared to move a dredger back to the Murray mouth.
SA Water said an assessment on when dredging would recommence would be made when flow volumes stabilised.
Justin Brookes, a professor with Adelaide University's school of biological sciences co-published a study in March drawing on 20 years of data, which showed the ecological damage low flows at the Coorong have caused.
He said with another possible El Niño event on its way, it was vital to take action now to secure the environment's long-term future.
"Floods reset a system and they're absolutely critical but the environmental flows keep the system going.
"Water that's been returned to the environment through the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder has kept the Coorong going over the past 15 years since the last flood.
"If we don't deliver flow through the barrages and into the Coorong, it has massive implications for every part of that ecosystem … including the [fish], birds and plants."
Drought prep needed now
The SA Drought Hub works on building the state's long-term resilience before a dry spell hits.
The hub's Tony Randall said all primary producers were encouraged to create a drought plan now, with about 38 per cent surveyed across the state ready to go.
"Don't leave it to the last minute … so you know what you're going to do when the season becomes drier and you don't get the rain that perhaps is expected," he said.
"Have a plan and implement that plan."
The government-funded One Basin Cooperative Research Centre has four regional hubs across the Murray Darling Basin.
Loxton regional hub manager Kym Walton said his organisation's research was looking at ways to be prepared for a changing climate.
"The longer-term trends suggest the future could be drier and have less water than the past," he said.
"If that's the case, we want to know what crop varieties can grow in a hotter climate, what that does to the soils, are there different varieties that need to be developed."
