The New Orleans Saints took an important step toward reaching the playoffs by beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but that alone won’t get them over the hump. Neither will a win in the regular-season finale next week against the Atlanta Falcons.
Because they tripped up and lost games to other teams in the wild-card race earlier this year, like the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams, the Saints are not in control of their own fate. So how can they get into the playoffs?
They’ll need a lot of help. As has been the case all year, their easiest path runs through the NFC South. The Saints must defeat the Falcons next week and hope for a Carolina Panthers upset over the Bucs. That’s easier said than done — this same Panthers team got shut out 26-0 by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17.
So what if the Saints don’t win the division? Could they still get in as a wild-card team? Technically, yes, but that window is rapidly closing and becoming less likely by the minute. The Rams survived a comeback effort by the New York Giants, so they’ll win any tiebreaker with the Saints at the end of the season. That means the Saints need the Seattle Seahawks to lose twice (to the Pittsburgh Steelers today and against the Arizona Cardinals next week) while also getting some help from the NFC North. And if the Seahawks beat the Steelers on Sunday afternoon, all of this is moot.
Whichever team wins on Sunday night — the Packers or Vikings — would be in conflict with the Saints in Week 18, and they each own head-to-head tiebreakers over New Orleans. So the winner of Sunday night’s game must lose next week, with the Seahawks also losing, while the Saints beat the Falcons team that got the better of them earlier this season. The Packers will host the Chicago Bears, while the Vikings visit the Detroit Lions.
If all three of those levers are pulled, the Saints will clinch the seventh playoff seed in the NFC. So it’s possible. It could happen. Stranger things have happened before in the NFL. But it isn’t likely given all of the different factors at play and each team’s schedule. The Saints made this bed for themselves. Now they have to sleep in it.
