Matt Marton/USA TODAY Sports
A few hours after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees on Wednesday morning, and before A.J. Preller added Xander Bogaerts at the end of the night in his latest push to field an entire roster of shortstops, the Cardinals agreed to a five-year, $87.5 million contract with catcher Willson Contreras. In doing so, they addressed both their biggest vacancy and one of their most glaring weaknesses from the past season.
Contreras, who turns 31 in May, is far more than just a viable replacement for the recently retired Yadier Molina, a future Hall of Famer; he’s a massive upgrade. The former Cubs backstop has long been one of the best catchers in baseball, and he’s coming off arguably his most productive season. Meanwhile, Molina played just as you’d expect a catcher in his age-39 season to play. It was his second-worst season of his career, behind his rough 2006 campaign, when he was a defensive stalwart still learning how to hit at the big league level.
Here’s a quick glance at how Contreras compared to Molina in 2022:
Contreras: .243/.349/.466, 22 HR, 128 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR
Molina: .226/.295/.367, 5 HR, 53 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR*, 0.1 fWAR
*This is Molina’s bWAR excluding his pitching WAR, because, well, he’s not really a pitcher and appeared twice in blowouts.
Before we go further, it’s worth mentioning that Contreras and Molina are completely different players. Most of Contreras’s value comes from his hitting, whereas Molina, even during his 10-year peak from 2009 to ’18 when he was a solid offensive player, has always been a glove-first catcher. There will be a drop-off defensively for the Cardinals with Contreras behind the plate.
That said, the concerns about Contreras’s fielding are overblown. He is an elite thrower and an adequate, if not great, blocker. Really, his biggest problem defensively has always been his framing, and even there, he’s made pretty remarkable strides in recent years. In 2018, his first All-Star season, Contreras was worth -14.6 framing runs, per Baseball Prospectus, and -10, according to Baseball Savant. This year, he was worth -2.5 and zero framing runs, respectively.
Moreover, he’s one of the catchers who stands to gain the most by some of the rule changes coming over the next handful of seasons. Framing could become obsolete fairly soon, as MLB is expected to implement the automatic balls and strikes system at some point during Contreras’s five-year deal. Even if the league chooses to use the ABS system for only manager challenges instead of for every pitch, the arrival of robo umps in any capacity would benefit Contreras and St. Louis.
Another change to consider is the new rule limiting pitcher pickoff attempts. Beginning next season, pitchers will be allowed no more than two “disengagements” from the rubber per plate appearance, except if a base runner advances. (In that case, the pitcher would get two more step-offs). The rule, however, does not apply to catchers. And no catcher likes to throw behind runners more than Contreras. As R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports pointed out on Twitter this week, Contreras led all catchers with 48 back-pick attempts last season, which is three more attempts than the next two catchers combined. His willingness to throw behind runners should help to keep their leads small even after two pickoff attempts from the pitcher.
Regardless of new or future rule changes, though, the Cardinals didn’t want Contreras for his glove. They signed him for his bat.
Here’s where Contreras ranks among all active catchers since 2016, his rookie season:
Last year, Conteras was better than ever at the plate. His 128 OPS+ ranked second among all MLB catchers with a minimum of 100 games played, behind J.T. Realmuto (129) and tied with Adley Rutschman.
In 2022, Contreras was more aggressive, made more contact and hit for more power. He had done each of these things in previous seasons, but never at the same time. There was always some sort of trade-off. The ’18 season was the only one in which he made more contact than ’22, but it came at the expense of his power; his 10 home runs, .390 slugging and .141 isolated power are all full-season career lows. The following year, his power returned—24 HR, .533 SLG, .264 ISO, all career bests—and he swung more frequently (49.9%), but he struck out more too (24.9% K rate, up from 22.2%). Last season he swung more often than ever (50.5%) and had the second-best contact rate (71.6%) and isolated power (.224) of his career.
All this bodes well for a Cardinals lineup that was already among the league’s best. St. Louis ranked fifth in the majors with 4.77 runs per game and a .745 OPS. That’s despite Cardinals catchers combining for a .552 OPS, the third-worst mark for any team at the position.
Currently, the Cardinals have a projected luxury tax payroll of roughly $183 million, per RosterResource, giving them about $50 million to play with before bumping up against the first tax threshold. They could use a true No. 1 starter, given Jack Flaherty’s injuries over the past two years. Miles Mikolas was an All-Star last season, but for as good as he pitched, he’s probably at best a No. 2 or 3. While Adam Wainwright has turned back the clock these last few years, he did struggle down the stretch in 2022 and is now 41 years old. Carlos Rodón is still available. Spotrac estimates his market value to be six years, $194.9 million, for a $32.4 million average annual value.
They could also use another left-handed bat, at DH or in the outfield; Michael Brantley would make a lot of sense. However, St. Louis might rather roll with a DH platoon of Nolan Gorman and Juan Yepez, with the possibility that Gorman takes over as the everyday guy if he emerges as the consistent power threat that he’s one day expected to be. The Cardinals also seem comfortable with the outfield trio of Tyler O’Neill in left, Dylan Carlson in center and Lars Nootbaar in right.
Signing Dansby Swanson is also an option, and a good one at that. Really, he feels like a Cardinal. But they need a No. 1 starter more than they need Swanson—Tommy Edman is more than capable of playing shortstop, with Brendan Donovan slotting in at second after an impressive rookie season in which he played every position except center field, catcher and pitcher (and won the first NL Gold Glove for a utilityman). Theoretically they could sign both Rodón and Swanson, but, to do so, they would have to exceed the tax threshold, which they have never done before.
After adding Contreras, St. Louis is already better than it was last year, when it won 93 games and finished first in the NL Central. With one or two more moves, it could be a true World Series contender.
Have any questions or comments for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.
1. THE OPENER
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
“The Mets stepped out of the headlines for, oh, 72 hours. After making a huge splash by signing Justin Verlander, they were thoughtful enough to recede into the background so the spotlight could shine on big moves by the Phillies, Yankees and Padres, if only briefly.
“And then Billy Eppler & Co. got busy again: New York reportedly signed outfielder Brandon Nimmo and reliever David Robertson in the space of just a few minutes on Thursday night. (They’d also signed lefty starter José Quintana to a two-year deal in the background of the action on Wednesday.) The Mets’ payroll was already the biggest in MLB. These signings ensure it will stay that way—and increase the team’s chances of being able to keep their footing at the top of a tough NL East.”
That’s Emma Baccellieri writing about the Mets’ joint signings from last night. Obviously, the bigger move is Nimmo, but don’t sleep on Robertson, who was quite effective last season with the Cubs and Phillies.
The Mets Splurge Once Again With Nimmo—but They Shouldn’t Be Done Yet by Emma Baccellieri
2. ICYMI
A lot has happened since the last newsletter. Let’s get you caught up with some of our best stories:
Ranking the Five Best Fits for Dansby Swanson by Will Laws
The former Braves shortstop has plenty of suitors. Where should he sign?
Xander Bogaerts Deal Makes It Clear the Padres Are Now the Red Sox by Stephanie Apstein
After a decade in Boston, the 30-year-old shortstop accepted a reported 11-year, $280 million deal with San Diego.
Aaron Judge’s Rejection Relegates Giants to Their Backup Plan by Stephanie Apstein
They knew they weren’t the favorites to sign MLB’s most feared slugger. On the heels of his rejection, they must figure out a less flashy way to improve.
Aaron Judge Masterfully Leveraged the Yankees. Now Comes the Hard Part. by Tom Verducci
One player cannot deliver a World Series title. But ultimately that is how this contract will be judged.
Aaron Judge’s Big Bet Pays Off—and Then Some by Emma Baccellieri
After one of the best seasons in MLB history, and a free agency that set the hot stove ablaze, the AL MVP returned to the Yankees with a record-setting deal.
Cubs Make a Sensible Bet on Cody Bellinger by Nick Selbe
It may not have made sense for the Dodgers to spend another year trying to fix their former MVP, but Chicago has little to lose and much to gain by signing him.
Wordplayer Agent: Scott’s Puns Never Bore Us by Stephanie Apstein
How Scott Boras, the biggest agent in baseball, turns meetings with reporters into a semiannual sea of puns, metaphors and jokes.
Trea Turner and the Phillies Are a Perfect Match by Emma Baccellieri
The 11-year, $300 million deal jump-starts the market for free-agent shortstops and gives Philadelphia one of MLB’s most electric players.
Justin Verlander Is an Upgrade Over Jacob deGrom for the Mets by Stephanie Apstein
New York replaced one of the best pitchers in franchise history with a more accomplished, more durable ace.
The Mets Had No Choice but to Sign Justin Verlander by Tom Verducci
The three-time Cy Young winner turns 40 in February. New York will have to manage his innings, but he still has plenty of elite baseball left in him.
Fred McGriff’s Rightful Validation Contrasted by Condemnation of Bonds, Clemens by Tom Verducci
A Hall of Fame committee composed mostly of baseball executives and players made clear the type of player they do and do not want as their peers in Cooperstown.
Jacob deGrom’s Deal Opens MLB’s Free-Agency Spigot by Tom Verducci
The Rangers’ massive contract with the former Mets ace shows this game is about its stars perhaps more than ever before.
Jacob deGrom Is Worth the Risk for the Rangers by Emma Baccellieri
Yes, five years is a lot to give a 34-year-old with a history of injuries. But no one else is as good as the former Mets ace when he’s on the mound.
3. WORTH NOTING from Stephanie Apstein
I am personally relieved that Judgement Day has come and gone, mostly because every time my phone buzzed in the past month I jumped, but I will miss one running bit the smaller-market teams developed. As Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reported last month, A’s assistant general manager Billy Owens greeted executives arriving at the GM meetings by informing them that his famously frugal franchise had just signed Aaron Judge.
The joke continued at this week’s winter meetings: Brewers GM Matt Arnold told me he thought his team was close to agreeing with the slugger on a nonroster deal with an invitation to spring training. (“He just loves Milwaukee,” Arnold explained, deadpan.) A day later, Rays manager Kevin Cash said Tampa Bay was expected to sign Judge and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Congratulations to Judge and the Yankees on getting a deal done, and condolences to all the executives who will have to find new material.
4. TRIVIA from Matt Martell
Previous Question: Gaylord Perry is one of two pitchers with at least 3,000 career strikeouts and 300 complete games. Who is the other?
Answer: Walter Johnson, who finished his career with 3,509 strikeouts and 417 wins.
Question: Trea Turner is the third shortstop to hit at least 100 home runs and steal at least 200 bases over his first eight seasons. Who are the other two?
5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri
You might have heard this week’s winter meetings were the first since 2019. (The meetings were canceled last year due to the lockout and the year before due to the pandemic.) The wave of big signings made it clear people were excited to have them back. That excitement manifested in other ways, too—like, say, a jam-packed Rule 5 draft. The hotel ballroom filled up so fast that they began turning people away at the door. And there were no special privileges for execs: I thought it was bad when I noticed Phillies GM Sam Fuld crammed into the standing-room-only section a few feet away from me. (C’mon, a World Series trip doesn’t guarantee the man a chair?) But it could have been worse: As Stephanie reported earlier, Giants exec Farhan Zaidi was actually one of those turned away once the room hit capacity, and he had to follow along on his phone.
