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Radio France Internationale
Radio France Internationale
World
RFI

Will US-Iran nuclear talks break the deadlock or fan the flames?

Scale model of a nuclear power plant at the Holy Defence Museum in Tehran. © RFI/Jan van der Made

The United States and Iran are on Saturday holding talks on Tehran's nuclear programme, for the first time since President Donald Trump cancelled a 2015 deal. Hosted by Oman, the meeting is aimed at reaching a new agreement on Iran's nuclear facilities.

In the lead-up to the talks, both sides have engaged in a war of words that saw Trump last month send a letter to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei threatening military action if negotiations fail.

Responding to Trump's threat, Ali Shamkhani, an advisor to Khamenei, said Iran could expel United Nations nuclear inspectors, prompting a US warning that such action would be an "escalation".

On Wednesday, Trump said military action against Iran was "absolutely" possible if talks failed to produce a deal.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Iran's nuclear achievements exhibition in Tehran on 9 April, 2025. via REUTERS - Iran's Presidency

"If it requires military, we're going to have military. Israel will obviously be very much involved in that, be the leader of that," Trump said.

French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said a military confrontation would seem “almost inevitable” if talks over Iran’s nuclear programme collapse.

France warns of military conflict if nuclear talks with Iran collapse

But on Friday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was "giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance". "America should appreciate this decision, which was made despite their hostile rhetoric," Baqaei wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Iran's nuclear programme

When the US-backed Shah Reza Pahlevi ruled Iran from 1953 to 1979, Washington helped the regime set up its first nuclear facilities under the Atoms for Peace programme. Launched in 1953, this Cold War-era initiative was aimed at balancing fear of nuclear war with prospects for the peaceful use of uranium.

But the Shah's ambitious plans to build scores of reactors were halted by the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which brought the current regime to power.

Despite the US withdrawal from Iran, Tehran's new authorities continued the nuclear programme.

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In 2002, the dissident Mujaheddin-e-Khalq group claimed during a press conference in Washington that it had proof – based on satellite pictures – that Iran was running two top-secret nuclear projects, in Nataz and in Arak.

A year later, the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported that Iran had "not declared" certain uranium enrichment procedures.

Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is peaceful and has enriched uranium to less than 5 percent, consistent with the fuel requirements for a civilian nuclear power plan.

But Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has waged a consistent campaign against Iran's suspected nuclear programme, warning that Iran's capability to develop a nuclear bomb was "imminent".

Benjamin Netanyahu uses a diagram of a bomb to describe Iran's nuclear programme while delivering his address to the 67th United Nations General Assembly meeting in 2012. AFP - DON EMMERT

The allegations led to stringent sanctions, negotiations and finally, under the Obama administration, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK) and Germany, the so-called 5P+1, and Iran.

The agreement was aimed at gradually lifting the sanctions against Iran in exchange for Tehran scaling down its nuclear programme.

But in his first term as US president, Trump called the JCPoA "the worst deal he had ever seen" and, encouraged by Netanyahu's continuous criticism, cancelled the agreement unilaterally in 2018, re-imposing sanctions.

The remaining JCPoA partners have continued to urge the US to get back to the negotiating table – not just China and Russia, traditionally sympathetic towards Tehran, but France and Germany too.

France, Germany and China call for reviving Iran nuclear deal

Weapons grade

In its latest quarterly report, released in February, the IAEA said Iran had an estimated 274.8 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent. "Weapons grade" – the level that allows enriched uranium to be used for nuclear bombs – is around 90 percent. Iran has also increased its number of centrifuges.

Baqaei said Iran will "neither prejudge nor predict" the outcome ahead of Saturday's meeting in Oman, a long-established venue for Iranian talks.

"We intend to assess the intentions and seriousness of the other side on Saturday and adjust our next moves accordingly," he said.

Germany urged on Friday a "diplomatic solution". Foreign ministry spokesman Christian Wagner stressed that it was a "positive development that there is a channel for dialogue between Iran and the United States".

(With newswires)

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