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Apple (AAPL) is set to launch its iPhone 16 on Sept. 9. There is a lot of excitement about the new device, as the model will feature what the company describes as “Apple Intelligence.” Is AAPL stock a buy or a sell ahead of the launch? In this article, we’ll discuss how AAPL stock has performed historically in September, and what analysts are predicting ahead of the crucial launch.
September Hasn’t Been a Good Month for Apple
Ironically, while there is always excitement about Apple products - and especially the iPhone, which is typically updated each September - it hasn’t been a happy month for investors. According to data from FactSet, Apple shares have lost 3.5% in September, on average, in the last 10 years. The price action over the last 4 years has been even worse, with the shares falling more than 6% each year – including an 8.9% decline last year.
To be fair, September is typically the worst month for U.S. stocks overall, so this isn't meant to single out Apple’s price action. However, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring highlighted that AAPL shares have underperformed the market on the day of the iPhone launch. So, it would be fair to say that the iPhone launch is typically a “sell the news” event.
Nvidia Crashed Despite Stellar Q2 Earnings
We saw something similar with Nvidia in August, when the stock crashed following its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings release. There was nothing wrong with the report, per se; the AI chip company beat on both the top line and the bottom line, while providing better-than-expected guidance.
However, NVDA stock had already run up substantially ahead of the event, so the beat – which turned out to be narrower than what we saw in the previous quarters – failed to impress markets.
Apple Stock Has Risen Sharply Since WWDC
While optimism over Nvidia's fiscal Q2 earnings report began a couple of weeks ahead of the event, euphoria over the iPhone 16 has been building since the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June, where Apple unveiled its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives.
While markets initially gave the announcements a chilly reception, Apple shares subsequently rose as investors digested the news. In fact, Apple shares have delivered double-digit returns since the WWDC, and have outperformed the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) over the period.
While the tech company also posted an impressive set of earnings since WWDC, I believe much of the rally since then has been built on optimism that Apple will come up with a compelling iPhone that can trigger a mega replacement cycle – which some believe could be similar to the 5G upgrade cycle.
AAPL Stock Forecast
Wall Street analysts are largely bullish on AAPL shares heading into next week’s iPhone launch. Morgan Stanley, which has Apple as a “top pick,” believes the stock’s year-end performance in 2024 will be better than what it has been historically amid pent-up demand for the iPhone 16 and its Apple Intelligence-fueled features. Citi, likewise, has named Apple ahead of Nvidia as its 2025 top AI stock pick.
However, not all analysts are on the same page when it comes to the expected demand boost from iPhone 16. UBS reiterated Apple as “neutral,” as it sees “risks building” ahead of the launch event.
Overall, of the 31 analysts covering Apple, 18 have a “Strong Buy” rating, while 4 rate it as a “Moderate Buy.” Eight analysts rate the iPhone maker as a “Hold,” while 1 has a “Strong Sell” rating. AAPL’s mean target price is $243.58, which is 9.3% higher than Tuesday’s closing prices.
Should You Buy or Sell Apple Stock Now?
The upcoming iPhone 16 launch is quite an important event - not only for Apple, but also for the entire artificial intelligence space. After WWDC, Apple managed to shed the perception that it was slacking in the AI race. The sales numbers for Apple's iPhone 16, which will be AI-enabled, will tell markets whether end users are as excited about AI as the investors who have bid up tech stocks, cheering every mention of “AI” during recent earnings calls.
If the initial sales numbers of iPhone 16 disappoint markets, we could see AAPL stock give back some of the gains that it made in the previous few months. However, I am in the bullish camp, and expect the model to generate decent excitement among buyers. That said, with Apple trading at a next 12-month (NTM) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of over 30x, the margin of error is quite low, and markets will likely be quite unforgiving if the iPhone 16 fails to impress.
One wild card here is China, where Apple is facing intense competition from mainland tech companies, with growing U.S.-China trade tensions not helping the cause of the Cupertino-based company. Key rival Huawei has incidentally announced a product launch event shortly after Apple’s iPhone reveal, and while the company hasn’t specified the product, it said it would be “innovative” and “disruptive.”
On the date of publication, Mohit Oberoi had a position in: AAPL , NVDA . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
