With just one day left for the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala on Friday, the biggest question is whether the State will buck the national trend of low voter turnout.
The first phase of the elections in the country witnessed a fall of around 4% in voter turnout compared to the 2019 elections. Though a lack of enthusiasm among a section of voters and prevailing heat wave conditions were attributed to the low turnout, the political pundits in Kerala are hopeful of an enhanced voter participation this time.
G. Gopakumar, psephologist and former Vice-Chancellor, Central University of Kerala, told The Hindu that adverse weather conditions would always have a bearing on voter turnout in elections. However, it was unlikely that the the State would witness a low turnout. First, at least seven Parliament constituencies—Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, Palakkad and Kasaragod—have been witnessing three-cornered fights. In constituencies where the BJP was hopeful of a 25% vote share, the fight would be intense, necessitating the three fronts to bring as many voters as possible to the polling booths. Among these seven constituencies, Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, and Attingal were poised to witness tough competition among the three fronts. In addition, although the fight was two-cornered, the Vadakara and Kannur constituencies were likely to witness a relatively higher turnout due to the high-voltage campaign in these constituencies, said Mr. Gopakumar.
Weather a concern
If there was some complacency among party workers in the first phase about the ‘convinced victory’ of the BJP at the national level, the anti-Modi rhetoric being echoed by the two fronts in the State had charged up the election scenario in the State, said N. Sreekumar, political observer. However, weather was a concern for the three fronts. More than the above normal temperature, the thundershowers expected in the afternoons would have a bearing on the voter turnout, especially in hill districts and high-range areas, where the strategy of the three fronts would be to bring the maximum number of voters to the polling booths by noon, said Mr. Sreekumar.
Heat wave in Palakkad
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced heat wave conditions in many parts of Palakkad till April 26. This is the first time in the current season that the IMD has declared heat wave-like conditions in Palakkad, where the temperature is expected to climb to 41° C on Thursday and Friday, while the rest of the State, barring Wayanad and Idukki, is likely to witness temperatures between 36° C and 39° C.
