It has been a beautiful week in northwest Europe, with barely a cloud in the sky in Belgium for the Tour of Flanders last weekend, and temperatures well over 20 degrees the norm. It has felt almost not real, with people - including myself - becoming a little pink in the sun. The pros will be hoping that this good weather continues into Paris-Roubaix weekend, with the pavé of northern France much more enjoyable in the dry, despite the dust.
However, the clement weather might not last. Depending on which weather forecaster you look at, there is quite the chance of rain for Sunday, for the men's race, which would make everything a bit spicier. There has not been a wet Roubaix since 2021's October edition, won by Sonny Colbrelli and a wet spring edition hasn't come since 2002 and Johan Museeuw's final victory.
As we saw in 2021, with Lizzie Deignan's solo escape to victory in the mud, rain can change everything, and make the race a lot more unpredictable. In the wet, the cobbles aren't just bone-shaking and energy-sapping, but also slippery, requiring all the more concentration.
According to France's state weather forecasters, Meteo France, showers are due to come throughout the day on Saturday. However, with the race still days away, Meteo have a 3/5 confidence in that forecast.
American behemoth Accuweather, meanwhile, has a 60% chance of precipitation across the day on Sunday, with the showers mainly falling in the afternoon. British favourites BBC Weather have rain falling across the day, which is a good thing for those who like chaos.
It does not look likely that the rain will fall for Paris-Roubaix Femmes on Saturday, with no rain forecast between now and then either; therefore it will be dry and dusty for the women, before it could potentially be muddy for the men on Sunday. However, with the rain not supposedly coming until during the race, there will be little time for the off-road areas to be churned up to the extent they were in 2021, or in 2002.
Rain does increase the risk of incident, which will be in the back of Tadej Pogačar's mind as he embarks on his first attempt on the cobbles in this race; while the Slovenian has been on training rides across the rough stuff and raced with the Tour de France on the pavé too, this was in the dry. UAE Team Emirates-XRG are very wary of any crash for the Slovenian affecting the rest of his season, and for good reason too - the Tour de France really isn't that far away.
There are riders who prefer brutal conditions too, with Lidl-Trek's Mads Pedersen one of the people probably doing a bit of a rain dance to ensure that it's even harder on Sunday.
Rain could also influence tech choices for the race, with wider tyres already preferred, but teams might go even wider if they know there's going to be mud and water on the cobbles. Keep your eyes on those forecasts, because we could be in for fun.
