ORLANDO, Fla. — The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is nearly here, but will its numbers rival 2020, and will Florida be in the crosshairs?
Early indicators once again point to above-average numbers coming off the tired heels of the busiest Atlantic hurricane season of all time.
Before 2020′s official season began, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted between 13 to 19 storms, likely to surpass the average of 12 named storms over the previous 30 years.
Forget above average. The 2020 season ended with the most named tropical systems in recorded history, forcing hurricane trackers to plow through their normal alphabet and into the Greek alphabet for just the second time ever while logging a series of extremes into the record book.
“(We learned0 you have to be ready for anything,” said NHC Director Ken Graham. “We had 30 named storms, the most named storms in 170 years. It was a crazy busy, relentless season during a pandemic.”
The first record was shattered two days into the season when Tropical Storm Cristobal developed, making it the earliest forming “C”-named storm of any season. Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, developed before the June 1 start of the season. The letters kept lining up to become the earliest ever seen: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, and all of those before September.
Three months in, the NOAA updated its predictions, now forecasting 25 named storms, but the records kept coming with Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred and nine storms from the Greek alphabet.
That includes Hurricane Iota, the second Category 5 Atlantic hurricane to ever form in November. The other was the 1932 Cuba Hurricane. The 11th month of the year is too cold for most storms to form. Nov. 30 marks the end of hurricane season because of the northern hemisphere’s transition to winter and tropical conditions become less than ideal for development.
The final storm of the season was Tropical Storm Theta, which died out 15 days before the official end of the hurricane season. Of the 30 named storms, 13 became hurricanes. Of those, seven developed into major hurricanes, storms with maximum sustained winds greater than 110 mph, tying the seven seen in 2005, the only other year to use the Greek alphabet.
It was the close to a dramatic season, exacerbated by the already dramatic coronavirus pandemic, and the U.S. suffered a record number of landfalls with 12, far surpassing the previous record of nine set back in 1916.
If 2021 approaches the numbers seen in 2020, though, there won’t be another round of Greek letters for storm names. The World Meteorological Organization determined its use became a media distraction to residents ignoring the actual danger of a storm, and the similarity in names like Eta, Theta and Zeta was confusing.
The WMO instead created a supplemental 21-name alphabetical list if needed.
The records set in 2020 also have led to a new normal. In April, the NOAA released a new annual storm average per hurricane season, using 30 years of data.
What has been an average of 12 named storms with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, using data from 1981-2010, is now updated using 1991-2020 data: 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes a year.
That’s a a result of better observations and technology, Graham said.
“We’re catching those borderline storms now ahead of season. We’ve got satellite technology that is incredible,” Graham said. “We see things peering into the storm. We see its rotation, and we’re not just seeing clouds. We’re using satellites passing over to see winds in closed circulation. We never used to have that data.”
However, with a new normal in place, experts are already forecasting the 2021 season to be above average.
Weather site AccuWeather forecasts 16 to 20 named storm for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season. Meteorological experts at Colorado State University predict 17 named storms.
And the NOAA said on its May 20 forecast it expects 13-20 named storms, six-10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes.
“Looking at the global pattern of heat in the ocean, everything I’m seeing is pointing to an above average season,” Graham said.
Meteorologists agree with Graham for several early indicative reasons, first being the warm temperatures of the Atlantic.
“Subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than their long-term average values. The warmer subtropical Atlantic also favors an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season,” CSU stated in its early forecast.
AccuWeather’s study, though, notes the waters around Florida, primarily the Gulf of Mexico, to be cooler than normal.
“However, those water temperatures are expected to increase by the time the season begins,” AccuWeather stated.
CSU backed up its “above average” claim by pointing to a predicted lack of El Nino’s presence during the peak of hurricane season. El Nino is a warm atmospheric and oceanic current in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and winds in the Atlantic. El Nino typically increases “upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form,” CSU said.
Without it, more hurricane development is possible.
The U.S. is predicted to experience three to five landfalling storms this season, according to AccuWeather. One reason why that might be possible is because of a weaker Bermuda High, which is a high-pressure zone that is responsible for steering several storms into the Gulf of Mexico and away from Florida. CSU also found the odds of a hurricane making landfall to be above average. A normal year has seen a 52% chance of a hurricane making landfall on the U.S. based on 50 years worth of data. For 2021, CSU estimates odds at 69%.
While the odds for a U.S. strike may be higher, though, it’s no guarantee Florida will be among the targets. But with chances of storm formation that could mirror 2020, Floridians will need to keep vigilant once again.
