The world has changed beyond recognition since Heathrow planners were last actively working on the airport’s third runway ambitions.
Progress was halted in early 2020 when the Covid pandemic erupted and passenger traffic collapsed by as much as 90%.
Four years on, the project is still officially “under review.” Although passenger numbers at Heathrow have bounced back, it is not yet clear how much of that is a short-term unwinding of pent-up demand. And all sorts of other factors have changed.
Constructions costs and interest rates have rocketed since the financial numbers were drawn up, playing havoc with ageing cost/benefit models. Heathrow also has to handle a legacy of £4 billion of Covid-era losses.
Public concern about the impact of aviation on the climate is even more focused now after extreme weather around the world. Perhaps most pertinently of all, there is now a new pilot in the Heathrow cockpit.
Previous CEO John Holland-Kaye was a passionate advocate for the third runaway. It sometimes felt that getting it over the line was the crowning ambition of his career. But he left last October to be replaced by former Copenhagen airport boss Thomas Woldbye, who has yet to express his views.
Naturally he will wait until he sees the outcome of the review before he comes to a decision. So far he has stressed the need to make the existing infrastructure work better rather than nail his colours to the expansion mast.
The final change in the landscape is the upheaval on the Heathrow share register. The decision to press ahead with the third runway was taken when Spanish firm Ferrovial was the biggest shareholder.
They have gone now and three other investors are looking for an exit. It may well be up to the new owners of Heathrow as much as the new CEO to make that call on whether the third runway ever gets built.
