I highlighted gold’s inflation-adjusted technical resistance in a March 4 Barchart article on gold’s next upside target. I concluded:
I believe gold is on a path to eclipse the inflation-adjusted 1980 high at over $3,300 per ounce, but the route could include speed bumps. Buying gold or adding to existing long positions on price weakness, leaving room to add on further and deeper declines, has been optimal for decades, and I expect that trend to continue.
Nearby April gold futures were trading at $2,903.10 on March 3, 2025, and were above the $3,125 level after reaching a new record high in March. Gold’s bull market has been going strong for over twenty-five years and shows no sign of slowing. However, the potential for a correction intensifies the higher the price rises.
New highs in gold- A parabolic rally since the September 2022 low
Gold reaches a new record high each day.
The quarterly chart shows that gold’s most recent high in late March was at the $3,160.70 per ounce, an over 95% rise from the November 2022 low.
Short-term technical support levels to watch
Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines, but gold has been nothing short of a bullish freight train over the past months.
The daily continuous chart shows that the first technical support level is at the February 28, 2025, low of $2,844.10 per ounce. Below that, support levels are at the December 19, 2024, low of $2596.70 and the November 14, 2024, low of $2,541.50. Time will tell if the bullish sentiment in the gold market has reached a crescendo, leading to a correction.
The case for higher gold
The following factors support even higher gold prices over the coming days, weeks, and months:
- The inflation-adjusted 1980 high of $875 translates to nearly $3,400 per ounce, which could be an upside target.
- Central banks and governments continue to buy gold to add to reserves.
- Inflation remains elevated, supporting higher gold prices.
- Tariffs have caused gold to flow from the European wholesale market to the U.S. futures market warehouses, creating supply concerns and transportation bottlenecks, distorting prices.
- Gold is the world’s oldest means of exchange. Rising government debt devaluing currencies supports higher gold prices.
- Geopolitical turmoil is historically bullish for gold.
- In markets across all asset classes, the trend is always your best friend, and gold’s path of least resistance remained higher in early April 2025.
Gold’s upside trajectory suggests the market will see new nominal record highs in April 2025.
The argument for a correction
The following factors support a correction in gold prices:
- Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and gold has not experienced a significant pullback of over 9% since November 2024.
- Corrections tend to occur when bullish sentiment peaks as weak long positions liquidate, leading to lower prices.
- Any calm in the geopolitical landscape could lead to selling in the gold market.
- Gold’s recent price action and widespread buying leave it vulnerable to any risk-off periods in markets.
The bottom line is that while gold’s long-term trend remains higher, the market could be overdue for a correction. The bull market began in 1999 at the $252.50 per ounce bottom. Numerous corrections have occurred along the way to the current all-time high.
What is gold saying that market participants should not ignore?
Gold’s most significant message is that the value of fiat currencies has dramatically declined. The over 1150% rally from $252.50 in 1999 to around $3,160 in 2025 reflects the drop in fiat money’s purchasing power. While the U.S. dollar is gold’s pricing benchmark, the yellow precious metal has rallied in all currencies.
The prices of most assets have increased since the turn of this century. Real estate, stocks, commodities, and other asset prices have moved appreciably higher in U.S. dollar and other currency terms. As an example, the 1999 median U.S. home price was $159,800. At the 1999 $252.50 low, approximately 633 ounces of gold purchased a median-priced U.S. home. In 2025, the median U.S. home price is $410,700, or ounces of 132.50 gold at $3,100. The bottom line is that gold’s value has substantially improved, and the yellow metal has been the ultimate currency.
Gold could pull back from the most recent high, but the bull market, now twenty six years old, shows no sign of faltering while fiat currency values dissipate. Gold is likely to continue to make new highs in April as it closes in on its inflation-adjusted target from the 1980 high at the $3,400 per ounce level.
