MIAMI — The Atlantic is bustling with activity Tuesday, and forecasters are watching four systems:
A tropical wave over western Africa is expected to move into the Atlantic in the next few days. A disturbance in the eastern Atlantic could turn into a tropical depression in the next few days. A struggling Hurricane Danielle could lose its tropical characteristics this week. And Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to turn into a hurricane soon.
Two disturbances
The National Hurricane Center at 8 a.m. Tuesday announced it was watching a new disturbance: a tropical wave over western Africa.
The system is forecast to emerge into the eastern Atlantic in the next few days, where conditions could be friendly for some development as it moves west to northwest. It has a 0% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a low 20% chance of formation through the next five days.
Forecasters are also watching another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic that has a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of formation through the next five days.
As of the 8 a.m. advisory, the system was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the Cabo Verde Islands to several hundred miles southwest.
While the disturbance could turn into a depression as it moves west to west-northwest, forecasters also noted in the advisory that upper-level winds are expected to become “less conducive for development” later this week.
Tropical Storm Earl
Forecasters say Tropical Storm Earl is a bit “disheveled” Tuesday morning although it’s still expected to become a hurricane, possibly by Wednesday, as it starts moving north to north-northwest.
On the forecast track, Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda later this week as a Category 2 hurricane. The hurricane center says Earl could eventually reach Category 3 level strength though it notes that the storm’s intensity forecast still remains “highly uncertain.”
“However, the size of the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely,” according to the hurricane center.
As of the 5 a.m. advisory, Earl was about 345 miles north of St. Thomas and about 615 miles south of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph and higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles from the center.
Hurricane Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on a “slow decline” Tuesday morning, with its maximum sustained winds decreasing to near 75 mph with higher gusts as it continues to move northeast across the northern Atlantic. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected by early Wednesday followed by a slow counterclockwise turn at the end of the week, according to the hurricane center.
Forecasters expect Danielle will continue to weaken and eventually turn into a large extratropical low to the west of the British Isles later this week once it merges with a baroclinic system.
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