Apple's iPhone 15 introduction could be the next catalyst for Apple stock. But analysts are uncertain whether this year's handset lineup will be enough to revive lethargic smartphone sales for the consumer electronics giant — and the industry overall.
Apple likely will introduce its 17th-generation iPhone at a media event in mid-September. But the handset family will debut amid declining smartphone sales for Apple and the total market.
Counterpoint Technology Market Research predicts that global smartphone shipments will decline 6% to 1.15 billion units in 2023. That would be the lowest shipment number in 10 years, the research firm said.
Weak sales in North America and China are principal factors behind the decline in smartphone shipments this year as consumers fret about the economy. Plus, smartphone owners are holding on to their handsets for longer periods between upgrades, or an average of about three years.
However, Apple is better positioned than most handset makers because it is focused on the premium segment of the market, which has been more resilient, Counterpoint analyst Hanish Bhatia told Investor's Business Daily.
IPhone 15 Could Help Apple Take Sales Lead
In fact, Apple could become the No. 1 smartphone brand worldwide for the first time ever this year, as it looks to overtake market leader Samsung, Bhatia said.
Through the first half of 2023, Samsung was the top global vendor with 20.8% of smartphone unit shipments. Meanwhile, Apple was second with 18.8% of the market, according to Counterpoint.
Whether Apple can surpass Samsung globally this year will depend on the success of the iPhone 15, Bhatia said.
"We expect Samsung and Apple to be neck-and-neck in terms of smartphone shipments in 2023," he said. In the U.S., Apple is the clear leader with 55% market share in the second quarter vs. 23% for Samsung, Counterpoint says.
Apple Could Introduce Ultra Model Smartphone
The iPhone 15 will be Apple's fourth-generation 5G wireless device. News leaks indicate that the upcoming smartphone family will have improved cameras, processors and displays. The iPhone 15 also could see price increases over the current iPhone 14 lineup.
In addition, Apple stock analysts expect the company to switch to a USB-C charging cable for the iPhone 15 from the company's proprietary Lightning cable. USB-C will allow for faster charging and data transfer speeds.
The top-of-the-line model might be called the iPhone 15 Ultra. It is said to feature a titanium alloy frame, larger display and a 10-times optical zoom camera, thanks to a "periscope lens" system, according to media reports. By contrast, today's iPhone 14 camera maxes out at three-times optical zoom.
Spotlight Will Be On iPhone 15 Pro Models
Like last year's iPhone 14 introduction, Apple will reserve the best new features of the iPhone 15 for the high-end Pro models, CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino told IBD. And he expects those Pro models to get a $100 price increase.
The current iPhone 14 Pro with a 6.1-inch display starts at $999 while the Pro Max model with a 6.7-inch display starts at $1,099. The rumored iPhone 15 Ultra would take the place of a new Pro Max model.
"I'm not forecasting a major upgrade cycle (with the iPhone 15), especially in this environment where smartphone demand is so anemic," Zino said. But the new handsets should be good enough to drive iPhone unit sales growth next year, he said.
Zino rates Apple stock as buy with a 12-month price target of 220.
Wireless Carriers Might Offer Promotions
Apple's iPhone sales have slumped ahead of the launch of its next-generation handsets.
In the second quarter, Apple's iPhone shipments declined 3% year over year, while industry smartphone shipments fell 9%, Counterpoint said.
"We're expecting the market to recover slightly in the second half of 2023, driven by the iPhone 15 launch," Bhatia said. "But overall we may still see a low single-digit drop in the overall smartphone market for 2023."
Wireless carriers could use the iPhone 15 launch to lure high-value customers to their networks, Counterpoint analyst Jeff Fieldhack said in a recent news release. Further, the market could see some aggressive promotions around the iPhone 15, he said.
Follow Patrick Seitz on Twitter at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
