Wildfire season in Canada has historically spanned from late April to August — with the most damaging of these fires typically burning in June and July. But in recent years, we’ve seen a significant change in when wildfires burning; they are no longer a seasonal phenomenon.
For example, in 2024, Alberta’s wildfire season started in February due to the province’s warm and dry conditions. Québec recorded its forth earliest wildfire since 1973 in mid-march of the same year. British Columbia then reported their first wildfires of the season shortly after.
In 2023, Canada had one of its most catastrophic wildfire years — with over 18.4 hectares of forest burned. These wildfires caused approximately 232,000 people to be evacuated from their homes in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Québec.
The huge number of wildfires that burned in 2023 released more than three times the total CO2 emissions of Canada’s entire transportation sector produces in a year. This catastrophic wildfire season also started burning far earlier than normal.
Changing wildfire patterns represent a growing danger to Canadians and our nation’s communities, ecosystems and air quality.
Recipe for a wildfire
The recipe for wildfire is simple and needs only three ingredients: fuel (combustible vegetation), ignition (either from human or natural causes — such as lightning) and favourable weather conditions (hot, dry and windy weather).
But drought can act as a key accelerating factor. As a professor who specializes in sustainable land and water management, I have spent over 15 years researching the impacts of climate change on natural disasters. My most recent research has highlighted the role that droughts play in wildfire vulnerability in Canada.
Droughts not only dry vegetation — which gives wildfires more fuel — they also prolong hot, dry and windy weather. This further creates a high-risk environment for wildfires to ignite and spread.
Canada may appear to be a water-rich country, with vast networks of lakes, rivers and considerable amounts of annual precipitation. But these rich resources suffer from significant seasonal and regional variations.
For example, even British Columbia, where many towns average more than a 1,000mm of precipitation a year, experiences severe drought conditions — particularly during the summer months.
At the end of 2024, 43 per cent of Canada was classified as abnormally dry or in moderate to extreme drought. Around 35 per cent of the country’s agricultural land was directly impacted. These conditions highlight the growing vulnerability of even water-rich regions to long, dry seasons.
During 2023, there was a strong link between soil moisture levels measured between May and October and wildfire activity. Areas with the lowest soil moisture levels experienced heightened wildfire activity. This underscores the critical role of drought conditions in amplifying wildfire risks.
Wildland and urban development
In January 2025, California experienced one of the most catastrophic wildfire crises in the state’s history.
At least 29 people tragically lost their lives. Over 16,000 structures have been destroyed or severely damaged, and approximately 200,000 residents were forced to evacuate from their own homes.
The total economic damage and losses are estimated to be more than $250 billion. This catastrophic crisis has clearly highlighted the growing impacts of climate change on densely populated areas at the interface of wildland and urban zones.
Drought was a major factor that exacerbated these wildfires.
But another important factor that significantly contributed to the damage caused by these wildfires in California was the wildland-urban interface (WUI). These are areas where natural, undeveloped vegetation meets human development. This creates a high-risk zone where flammable plants and structures combine — increasing the chance of wildfires spreading from wildlands to communities.
In Canada, the WUI is rapidly expanding as large cities contend with population growth. But this is putting even more Canadians at risk from potentially detrimental wildfires. The recent, severe wildfires in California’s WUI areas offer a clear warning for Canada, highlighting an urgent need to address the risks associated with these rapidly growing zones.
Safeguarding strategies
One way of safeguarding Canada’s expanding WUI zones is by using the leaf area index (LAI). This is a measure of vegetation density.
The more dense the vegetation in a particular region (which means it has a higher LAI value), the greater that area’s risk of wildfire. This is because densely wooded areas contain significant fuel sources for wildfires, making them capable of sustaining and intensifying fire spread.
British Columbia’s coastline, Eastern Canada, Southern Ontario and parts of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick (including Halifax and Saint John) are all densely vegetated, highly populated areas that are highly susceptible to wildfire threats — especially during periods of drought and high temperatures.
By pinpointing Canada’s most vulnerable regions, targeted wildfire prevention strategies can be carried out to mitigate risks and enhance community resilience in the face of escalating wildfire threats. This might include reducing the amount of dry vegetation, carrying out controlled burns and building fire-resistant infrastructure.
Canada announced a new goal to build nearly 3.9 million houses by 2031. For these houses to be built, parts of WUI zones will need to be used. It will be important for planning and development policies to ensure resilience against wildfires.
Canada stands at a pivotal moment in wildfire risk management because of expanding WUI zones, prolonged drought conditions and intensifying fire weather converge. Without a multi-pronged strategy, wildfires will only continue to be a growing threat to ecosystems, infrastructure and public safety.
Hossein Bonakdari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
