The Ulez expansion is likely to make it harder for Sadiq Khan to win a third term as Mayor, Tory election chiefs believe.
They claim he “already has a problem” in a number of suburban boroughs and believe opposition to the widening of the ultra-low emission zone to the Greater London boundary will give them the best chance in more than a decade to win back City Hall.
But allies of the Labour Mayor said he would be “proudly” campaigning on his record of having helped clean up the capital’s air – and highlighted the Tory struggle to find a mayoral candidate to stand against him.
Londoners will vote for the next mayor on May 2 next year — with Mr Khan aiming to become the first to secure three consecutive terms and remain in power until 2028.
But the Conservatives believe City Hall is in its grasp for the first time since Boris Johnson’s second mayoral victory in 2012 — due to the controversy around the Ulez expansion and the scandals involving the Metropolitan police.
The Tories are not expected to select their mayoral candidate until later this year, Tory chairman Greg Hands told the Evening Standard.
But he believes the Ulez expansion — due to happen on August 29 this year — will be an election issue, “particularly in those outer London boroughs where Sadiq Khan already has a problem”.
Mr Khan defeated Tory rival Shaun Bailey by 1,206,034 votes to 977,601 in 2021. But Mr Bailey outpolled Mr Khan in Bexley and Bromley, Croydon and Sutton, and Havering and Redbridge, all of which will be directly affected by the Ulez expansion.
A change in the voting system — to first past the post — will mean Mr Khan will be unable to rely on almost 200,000 second preference votes that boosted his winning margin in 2021.
Mr Hands, the MP for Chelsea and Fulham, said: “We outperformed expectations with Shaun Bailey two years ago and I am very upbeat about our chances of defeating Mayor Khan, who really has failed to deliver for London.”
Paul Scully, the Minister for London, and London Assembly members Andrew Boff and Nick Rogers are among those interested in becoming the Tory candidate. Another hopeful, Samuel Kasumu, has promised outer London boroughs a referendum on whether to remain within the Ulez.
Nickie Aiken, the Tory MP for the Cities of London and Westminster and the party’s deputy chairman, has ruled herself out, to focus on her parliamentary career.
It is possible that the General Election could be held on the same day next year. “Being mayor of London would be a huge honour, but I’ve got a job to do,” Ms Aiken told the Standard.
She said: “We have got to realise that this is in our grasp. Shaun came very close. With the ongoing failure of Mayor Khan’s administration, I think people want a change.
“I think we need somebody who is experienced in running bigger organisations, [who is] involved in politics. It’s going to be a very, very tough campaign. Khan is not going to give up. We somebody who has very strong resilience.
“We have probably a stronger chance than we have had for a long time because Khan has done such a dreadful job and people are crying out for a better mayor.
“I think his record speaks for itself. The Metropolitan police service has been put in special measures. Read the Casey report [on the catastrophic extent of wrongdoing in the Met]. It’s Sadiq Khan who has been responsible for the police service for seven years.
“The Ulez expansion, he has completely read wrong – if you ask people what they think and then ignore them, then questions have got to be asked about your ability to run a city.
“It’s the poorest households who are going to pay the most for this, and I think that is really unforgiveable in a cost of living crisis.”
A Labour source: “Londoners know exactly what the Tories are about – a cost-of-living crisis, soaring housing costs, huge cuts to public services, and opposing measures to clean up our dirty air.
“When the Tories manage to find a candidate, Sadiq will be proudly campaigning on his record delivering for Londoners, despite the actions of this woeful Government.”
