As America elects members of its Senate and the House of Representatives, Hayden Thorne explains why the outcomes have potentially major consequences
On Tuesday, November 8, US time (Wednesday our time), American voters will go to the polls in their so-called ‘midterm’ elections. Midterm elections are a fairly foreign concept to New Zealanders, where we have a three-yearly electoral cycle and no other elections (other than local body) in between.
The 2022 midterms have generated very little interest here, and traditionally generate less interest in the US as well when compared to the four-yearly presidential elections.
However, the mid-terms are important – and this election is particularly important.
So then, what is a midterm election?
To understand the election it is important to also understand the American system of government. Rather than a unicameral (one house of parliament) system like New Zealand, the United States has a bicameral legislature, made up of the House of Representatives (lower house) and the Senate (upper house). Both houses must agree before legislation is passed. The two houses are also elected very differently. Two senators are elected from each state, regardless of the size of the state. They are elected for a six-year term, meaning that in every two-yearly election, one third of Senate seats are up for grabs.
The House of Representatives is much larger, and is elected on a roughly proportional basis - currently with 435 seats. This means California, the most populous state, elects 52 Members of the House while the smallest states like Delaware, Wyoming and Vermont elect only one. Members of the House are elected for a two-year term – meaning that every two years, all seats in the House are up for grabs. It is worth noting that this is not an overly democratic system, as I explained in 2020.
So, while Tuesday is not a presidential election, there is still a massive amount at stake – one-third of all senators, and all members of the House of Representatives will be elected. On top of this, many states have significant state elections that coincide with the federal election, so a large proportion of the United States' political leadership will be elected on Tuesday. It is significant enough that we absolutely should care, on numbers alone.
Who is going to win?
Currently, the US has a Democratic Party President, Joe Biden, the Senate is split 50-50 but the Democratic Party holds the tie-splitting vote, while the Democrats also have a small majority in the House of Representatives.
Polling is incredibly difficult for midterm elections, for a number of reasons. Mainly it is an issue of scale - getting accurate poll responses for all 435 Congressional districts is next to impossible. However, a combination of historical trends and selective polling suggests it is increasingly likely that the Democratic Party will lose control of the House, and possibly (but with less certainty) the Senate as well. Incumbent governments tend to do badly in midterm elections when the economy is weak, which is exactly the situation in 2022. These polls are notoriously challenging, however, and so are best taken with a grain of salt. Even just a day or two out from the election, things could still change, with turnout a particularly important challenge for the Democratic Party in particular.
There are a couple of important things to take note of. One is that voter behaviour and polling in general has been much more volatile in the past couple of electoral cycles and predicting election results has become increasingly difficult.
The other major factor shaping this year’s mid-terms is the overturn of Roe v. Wade which I wrote about here. As many predicted, the reaction to the overruling of constitutional access to abortion was broadly unpopular, and generated a significant backlash against the Republican Party, while boosting popular support and fundraising for the Democrats.
Traditionally, voters are far more likely to vote on economic policy than social policy, but the outpouring of anger against the Supreme Court and Republican meddling against abortion rights could still play a major role in the outcome.
Consequences
If, as predicted, the Republican Party secures control of one or both Houses, the net result is bad news for almost all Americans. While Biden remains President for another two years, without the support of both Houses his ability to pursue any kind of meaningful political agenda will be significantly curtailed. This could lead to two years of stagnation - both politically and economically and will likely severely limit the administration’s ability to address the growing economic crisis.
A Republican win of any sort is also bad news for democracy. The Republican Party is still far too close to the Trump-ish, election-denial, January 6 insurrection-supporting party of 2020 and 2021. The win-at-all-costs attitude and lack of respect for basic rights and human values exhibited by key figures in the party has quietened, but it has not gone away. And until the Republican Party makes a proper and concerted effort to distance themselves from Trump, democracy across the United States will continue to suffer.
Finally, there is also likely to be a significant environmental cost. The Democrats have at least shown signs of wanting to act to address the climate crisis. The Republican Party has not, and if they take control of either House, the chances of any significant US action on climate change will go up in smoke faster than the copious amounts of coal still burning in US power stations.
In short, the election is a big deal, with major potential consequences - and we should all be paying attention.
