CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Prices on items like eggs, turkeys and other mainstays of holiday meals look to gobble up a larger piece of your food budget this year.
Since the pandemic began, grocery stores have seen sporadic food outages due to supply chain issues. This Thanksgiving, inflation, avian flu and global pressures like the Ukraine War and supply chain issues have created a recipe for higher costs and possible shortages on some foods.
Overall, costs for food for homes have risen 13% over the last 12 months, the latest The Consumer Price Index data show.
“Everyone is feeling the strain of their weekly grocery store bill,” said Lisa Prince, executive director of the North Carolina Egg Association, which represents the commercial egg industry.
In the Charlotte area, for instance, an analysis by The Charlotte Observer found that the prices of a dozen eggs locally has more than doubled since December.
Comparing prices
To find out how much more, for instance, Charlotte-area buyers will shell out on holiday meals and seasonal baked goods, we compared a few of the main ingredients from previous Observer analyses and national data.
Here’s what to expect putting food on the holiday table and making seasonal baked goods:
— The big bird: Nationally, the average cost of an 8- to 16-pound turkey is up 73% from $1.99 per pound nationally compared to $1.15 last year, according to the latest USDA data.
— No yolk: In Charlotte, the average price for a dozen large eggs has skyrocketed 128% over the past 10 months, according to an Observer analysis. A carton of eggs averaged $1.60 in December compared to $3.65 on Nov. 3 at Charlotte’s top four grocers by market share — Walmart, Harris Teeter, Food Lion and Publix.
— Knead more dough: The average cost for a loaf of white bread — for making stuffing — has risen 19% from $1.33 to $1.55 locally since last December The price for cereals and bakery products increased 16.2% since last year, according to the Consumer Price Index.
— Milking it: A gallon of skim milk — needed for mashed potatoes and cookies, among other uses — cost $2.77 last December compared to $3.34 last week, a 21% increase. Nationally, dairy and related product prices rose 15.9% over the past year, according to the Consumer Price Index.
Why everything costs more
There are several reasons key holiday ingredients are costing more.
— The bird flu outbreak made its way across the country since late last year. So far this year, more than 49 million birds have died or were culled due to exposure to infected birds, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported last week.
It’s depleting a near-record number egg-laying hens, said Prince, with the state egg association. “It takes time to get a farm up and running again,” she said.
Last month, a backyard chicken flock in Wake County tested positive for High Path Avian Influenza, North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services reported. In late spring and early summer, HPAI was found at nine poultry farms in Johnston and Wayne counties.
“This virus continues to put our poultry population at high risk. This latest HPAI positive flock reinforces the need to be extra vigilant,” the department said.
— Supply chain challenges and price hikes also include shipping and packaging, feed, labor and diesel fuel, Prince said. Everything it takes to run a farm and get the eggs on store shelves has been affected
Global corn supplies, which includes grain for feed, have been tight since the pandemic started in 2020, due to transportation problems and strong demand, according to Reuters.
And global wheat prices spiked because of pandemic disruptions as well as the war in Ukraine.
Will there be turkey shortages?
Grocers like the Harris Teeter supermarket chain, based in Matthews, North Carolina, aren’t expecting shelves to run bare of the big bird.
“We do not anticipate any issues in providing a full variety in both frozen and fresh turkeys,” said Danna Robinson, director of corporate affairs, told The Charlotte Observer.
Publix also does not anticipate any issues, spokesman Jared Glover said. The Florida-based supermarket chain also will have various sizes of fresh and frozen turkeys, as well as carve-and-serve, he said.
And Butterball, one of the largest producers of turkey products in the U.S., and is based in Garner, said its supply is about the same as last year for both fresh and frozen whole turkeys.
“We are confident that there will not be a shortage of Butterball turkeys this year,” said Christa Leupen, a Butterball spokeswoman.
Avian influenza has been a challenge for the turkey industry, but Butterball has seen less than 1% of its total production impacted, according to Leupen. Butterball typically produces about 1 billion pounds of turkey each year.
“We learned from the 2015 avian influenza outbreak and implemented changes that have us well positioned this time around,” Leupen said.
Butterball turkey farms are experiencing inflationary costs on grain and feed, and freight fuel and packaging, Leupen said.
Why eggs prices are sky high
Back in June, the Observer compared supermarket staples to the previous December. Eggs saw the biggest average increase of the group — up 81% going from $1.60 in December 2021 to $2.90 June 2022.
Because eggs have been relatively inexpensive, people are noticing the price jump more than other items, Prince said.
Eggs are a commodity market, meaning pricing is based on supply and demand set by grocery retailers, Prince said. The price for eggs always goes up around the holidays when more people are baking, she said, and drops in the summer.
“Eggs are still one of the lowest-cost proteins available,” Prince said.
Prince expects egg prices to drop again early next year. “It is going to come back down but we have to make it through inflation and repopulating (flocks),” she said. “It will correct itself eventually.”
Finding the best holiday prices
Like everyone else, Prince said, she’s looking at egg prices at different stores to find the best deals. Her suggestion: Do a price retail shop comparison online.
Take advantage of offers from grocers, too.
———
