The Orlando Magic have the first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and it is widely expected that they will select Auburn’s Jabari Smith.
As of the time of this publication, per Tipico Sportsbook, Smith (-500) is the odds-on favorite to become the first pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. Gonzaga big man Chet Holmgren (+220) is considered a distant long shot, with an implied probability of less than 33% right now.
That’s also a pretty massive swing from the odds, which were far closer to even when we checked on May 20. One reason why the odds have shifted so drastically is likely because of recent reporting.
For example, the language from Jonathan Givony suggests Orlando will pick Smith no matter what (via ESPN):
“Most NBA teams firmly believe that’s a formality and that Smith is all but assured to become the top pick. Smith, for his part, appears thrilled with that development. So is Holmgren over his looming marriage with the Oklahoma City Thunder, which is also the overwhelming expectation from NBA executives with whom we spoke at the draft combine.”
He reported Smith is “all but assured” to hear his name with the first overall pick and the “overwhelming expectation” is Holmgren will follow at No. 2 overall.
SI.com’s Jeremy Woo echoed these sentiments, adding that the “general expectation around the NBA” is that the Magic select Smith. Meanwhile, Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman reported that “assumptions by scouts and executives” lean towards Smith over Holmgren as well.
Connecting the dots, there is clearly a whisper campaign pushing a narrative. However, in another article, Givony’s rationale was a bit more curious (via ESPN):
“Most NBA teams are operating under the assumption that Smith will end up hearing his name called here, as he fits both the front office and coaching staff’s philosophy for what they look for in a prospect.”
As I wrote last month, it’s Holmgren, not Smith, who more evenly fits the profile of what this team typically seeks in a prospect.
This nugget from @BryanKalbrosky is gold: The only freshmen on record to take at least 50 3-pointers and attempt at least 30 dunks on offense, while also recording a block percentage above 5% and defensive rebound percentage above 25%, are Holmgren, Jonathan Isaac, and Mo Bamba.
— Jake Chapman (@JakeChapmanOM) May 20, 2022
The only freshmen on record to take at least 50 3-pointers and attempt at least 30 dunks on offense, while also recording a block percentage above 5% and defensive rebound percentage above 25%, are just Holmgren, Jonathan Isaac, and Mo Bamba.
Orlando’s front office selected Isaac and Bamba in the lottery, and they have long coveted players with an enormous wingspan like Holmgren’s. This is a point that Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer also noted:
“League figures have consistently mentioned the Magic front office’s affinity for length, particularly length on the perimeter, as a clue they’ll target Holmgren—considered to have the most guard-like skill package of the trio and the most superstar potential.”
Most mainstream mock drafts have Smith projected at No. 1 overall, but there are some exceptions to this trend.
Kevin O’Connor doesn’t buy Jabari Smith Jr. is a lock to go first overall in the 2022 NBA draft to the Orlando Magic. https://t.co/mWlQAlainL
— OKC Thunder Wire (@The_ThunderWire) June 6, 2022
Our latest mock draft is still rolling with Holmgren, The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor has the Magic selecting the Gonzaga big man as well. During a recent show on Spotify Green Room, O’Connor added some context.
According to O’Connor, his sources are “not sold” on the idea that Smith hears his name with the first overall pick.
While the tea leaves suggest Smith is the guy Orlando eventually selects, I’m not sold that this is what the Magic will do either. If it happens, I wouldn’t be surprised — but this doesn’t feel like a done deal to me whatsoever.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
