Based on previous results on similar circuits, Ferrari and McLaren are the pre-race favourites as Formula 1 heads to Las Vegas, but two key factors could yet trip them up.
This is also notwithstanding a rather resurgent Red Bull after Max Verstappen’s thumping victory last time out in Brazil, his win in F1’s return to Sin City last year and how his team’s car packages have been superb on aerodynamic efficiency right through the current rules era.
That third factor is a trump card on the 3.9-mile track, 1.4 miles of which is the Strip straight alone, with the RB20 likely to be back in its drag-reducing specification in a bid to make further gains in this area too.
But Ferrari was on course to win in Vegas last year, with Charles Leclerc repassing controversial early leader Verstappen and then opening up a healthy advantage over the penalised Dutchman before being undone by the mid-race safety car.
Key to Ferrari’s pace last year was how the SF-23 could fire up its tyres in the cold conditions F1 does not typically encounter anywhere else.
But after the red cars were off the pace in the cool Interlagos rain, Leclerc warned “this year we've done a big step in tyre management, which means that we also left something behind in cold conditions and tyre temperatures just like [Brazil] was”.
“Las Vegas is a bit of that scenario as well,” he added.
The cool temperature challenge for Vegas is two-fold, with Ferrari’s simulator senior engineer Erik van der Veen explaining this “makes it difficult to get the tyres in the right window for a single push lap, and equally difficult to keep them in the window for long runs”.
The track asphalt has also aged since it was installed ahead of the 2023 event, which means it should be slightly rougher and so the tyres can bite more on the altered surface and provide the drivers with more grip.
“Hopefully it's going to provide grip levels closer to what we usually encounter and be easier to work with,” said Aston Martin’s performance director Tom McCullough.
This means that even if Ferrari had not sacrificed its tyre warming advantage for in-race tyre degradation gains – a move that improved its package overall – the track aging should naturally boost the other teams.
At Aston, McCullough also hoped “the characteristics of the AMR24 will suit this track a bit better”, as the green team tries moves on from what was a bruising last triple-header.
“The most similar circuit to [Vegas] is Baku,” McCullough added. “There are a lot of low-speed corners, very few high-speed corners, and it is a circuit that requires very high aerodynamic efficiency.
“There are lots of power-limited straight-line zones where your lap time comes from. Your car has got to be fast on the straights not only for lap time, but also for raceability.”
The Baku comparison raises expectations for McLaren after Oscar Piastri beat Leclerc there this year, with the orange team also locking out the front row of the grid at this season’s Italian Grand Prix too – another venue that features many long straights.
Ferrari will be able to unleash its ‘Monza special’ rear wing package from 2023 at Vegas this weekend, but McLaren will not be able to run the wing it used in Italy and Baku after agreeing to modify the upper element of its skinniest rear wing.
This followed the ‘mini-DRS’ controversy of the team’s then rear wing package flexing considerably at top speed and subsequent discussions with the FIA.
Now it cannot do so, both McLaren and Ferrari appear to face a closer run for Vegas victory with Red Bull than the straight-heavy run of Monza and Baku back in September, where Verstappen’s squad struggled badly around car set-up work but it feels it has since cracked.
