The NBA’s top two teams are set to clash Wednesday, as the 30-5 Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Cleveland to face the 31-4 Cavaliers. Several historical markers underscore the strength of both teams and this matchup. The Cavs (plus-12.9) and Thunder (plus-12.5) boast the two clear best net ratings in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
Oklahoma City’s historic, top-ranked defense (103.6 defensive rating) against Cleveland’s top-ranked offense (123.4 offensive rating) is as marquee a regular season battle we’ve seen in quite some time. Aside from Oklahoma City’s NBA Cup Final loss to the Milwaukee Bucks (which doesn’t count toward the regular season), neither team has dropped a game since early December.
A Battle Of Historic Groups
To topple the Thunder, Cleveland must find cracks in Oklahoma City’s all-time defense. The Thunder generate turnovers at an unbelievable clip (18.1 percent opponent turnover rate), defend the 3-point line better than any other team and allow the second-lowest efficiency at the rim (behind only Cleveland). They’ve accomplished all of this largely without the services of Chet Holmgren, who began the season playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level. Oklahoma City will hope to build on its dismantling of the Boston Celtics’ elite offense, holding them to a season-low 95.8 offensive rating in Sunday’s win.
We can turn to that game, though, to help Cleveland head coach Kenny Atkinson search for answers. The Cavs’ buzzsaw offense will present problems, especially on the interior. Evan Mobley’s growth may be Cleveland’s main offensive X-Factor, as his size and brutish paint scoring will hurt the Thunder, especially whenever Isaiah Hartenstein is off of the floor.
He’ll likely have plenty of chances to create against smaller defenders with strong cores and low centers of gravity (mainly, Lu Dort and Jalen Williams). He’s scored much more effectively against those kinds of defenders this season, but the Thunder present his toughest obstacle yet. Mobley’s driving not only opens up his own scoring, but avenues for big-to-big passes with Jarrett Allen, who’s finishing 72.7 percent of his shots within five feet of the hoop.
kenny atkinson seems to have unlocked the evan mobley – jarrett allen pairing on offense like never before.
twin towers lineups (173 mins, per PBP stats) post a crazy 122.4 ORTG this year. from 2021-24, the duo sat at a 115.6 ORTG pic.twitter.com/Dn10h3jYk2
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 13, 2024
Against Boston, the Thunder gave up a few buckets to Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet ducking in and isolating against smaller defenders. Oklahoma City’s willingness to switch makes its defense special but can present matchup problems against some taller teams. The Thunder still aren’t an excellent rebounding team, offering opportunities for second-chance points for the Cavs.
teams with multiple tall interior scoring bigs can put OKC in a tough spot defensively, especially with hartenstein off of the floor. eventually huge players will get easy shots in the paint
something to look for when the thunder face mobley and allen tomorrow pic.twitter.com/Xf3c2b5mB3
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 7, 2025
Apart from Mobley’s development and Allen’s steady presence, Cleveland’s guards drive so much of its offensive success. Donovan Mitchell remains one of the NBA’s best players and Darius Garland’s playing the best basketball of his career. Those two against Oklahoma City’s endless stash of elite perimeter defenders — Dort, Williams (Jalen and Kenrich), Gilgeous-Alexander — will be a critical matchup to monitor (Alex Caruso will not play because of an injury).
Both star guards are dominant 3-point shooters, fueling Cleveland’s league-best deep-range shooting (40.4 percent). Oklahoma City, conversely, allows the lowest opponent 3-point percentage in the NBA (32.7 percent).
Cleveland generates open triples via guard screening actions, something Oklahoma City will take away with its switching and trapping. The Cavs are excellent at punishing these switches with ghosts, slips and pull-up threes, so Oklahoma City must key in on that.
darius garland and ty jerome might be my favorite screening duo in the league rn. feels like cleveland gets a good look out of it no matter what pic.twitter.com/KMnXbb4MUh
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 3, 2024
Even Hartenstein will switch and hedge out to the perimeter, forcing offenses to pass through the defense. This once again returns to Mobley and Allen, who may see plenty of short roll chances if the Thunder elect to blitz Mitchell or Garland.
Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault’s tendency to leave ancillary shooters open, especially in the corners, has become somewhat famous. The Thunder allow the highest frequency of corner threes in the NBA (12.1 percent) and the Cavaliers convert 43.1 percent of their corner triples. Expect Oklahoma City to live with the likes of Dean Wade, Georges Niang and Isaac Okoro (if he plays, currently listed as questionable) shooting from the corners.
The Cavs pass the basketball better than almost any team in the league, stringing together extra passes to find great shots. They’ve had success punishing defenses who rotate aggressively (like the Golden State Warriors) with extra laydowns and skip passes. Oklahoma City helps and swarms more than any defense, but the Cavs’ passing sets them up as well as any offense to beat them.
so much fun watching these cavaliers pass the ball. everyone hunts these high value looks and passes up shots for better shots. really tough to defend a team who punishes rotations as well as cleveland does pic.twitter.com/FCcPbRO5qy
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 7, 2025
Who Wins Between The Thunder’s Offense And Cleveland’s Defense?
Oklahoma City’s offense and Cleveland’s defense are both strong, even if they’re not top-level units like on the other side of the court. Despite Cleveland’s defensive strengths, it’ll work overtime to slow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who might be the NBA’s MVP. He’ll overmatch all of Cleveland’s perimeter defenders apart from potentially Okoro, who the Thunder will certainly send screens at to force switches and manufacture space for Gilgeous-Alexander to operate.
To beat the Thunder, Cleveland’s defense must force others to beat them. Oklahoma City’s offense plummets when Gilgeous-Alexander sits, nosediving by nearly 16 points per 100 possessions. As many teams have, Cleveland will challenge Jalen Williams to thrive as a primary perimeter creator. His size and strength should let him exploit most of Cleveland’s guards, but his deficiencies with ball control and vertical pop at the rim could limit there.
Cleveland features the best center duo in the NBA — Mobley is having a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season and Allen is still an elite defender. The Cavs almost never sit both of their bigs at once, presenting an enormous challenge at the basket for most offenses. Hartenstein’s work as a rebounder, passer and intermediate scorer will be critical to create paint touches and open shots on the interior for Oklahoma City.
Especially against the Thunder’s starters, the Cavs will certainly let one of their bigs roam off of Dort, Cason Wallace or Aaron Wiggins. Teams have forced Dort especially to score and create; Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic and Kristaps Porzingis, for example, all spent a solid chunk of their defensive time roaming off of Dort or Wallace in matchups with Oklahoma City this season.
Dort has converted an excellent 40.2 percent of his triples on solid volume (6.9 attempts per 75 possessions), but his slower release and trouble creating off of the bounce let teams get away with this strategy. Even if Dort or Wallace score, it’s a preferable option to allowing Gilgeous-Alexander to have his way in isolation.
some of OKC’s toughest opponents (boston, denver, golden state) have found success defending lu dort with centers and forcing him to hit shots/making decisions.
i’d expect cleveland to do the same to him (and wiggins/wallace/kenrich to a lesser extent) pic.twitter.com/P4lKZgkpzh
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 7, 2025
I’ll take Oklahoma City to emerge victorious in a nail biter. Despite Cleveland’s defensive strengths, the matchup should favor Gilgeous-Alexander’s rhythmic destruction of weaker perimeter defenders. Down the stretch, especially facing lineups with two or more of Mobley, Allen and Okoro (again, if he’s available), Oklahoma City’s swarming help defense will capitalize on any spacing gaffes. The Thunder defense will tighten Cleveland’s margin for error more than teams usually can.
Both teams, though, have a strong chance of winning. If Oklahoma City’s complementary shooters go cold and Cleveland’s bigs dominate, the Cavs could win handedly. We’ll be treated to a stellar chess match regardless and a potential NBA Finals preview if these teams continue dominating throughout the postseason.
