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Benzinga
Benzinga
Entertainment
Piero Cingari

Why This Streaming Giant Could Be December's Best Stock Pick, Backed By 20 Years Of Data

As the year draws to a close, investors are looking for one last chance to make a winning play in 2024.

The S&P 500 has delivered a strong 27% surge year-to-date, but some may feel they’ve missed out on the gains—or even left money on the table with premature moves earlier in the year.

While the broader market often enjoys a Santa Claus rally, one stock in particular stands out for its incredible seasonality: Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX).

If historical patterns hold true, Netflix could be the perfect pick to buy in December and hold through end of January.

Here’s why.

Netflix's Stellar Seasonality: By The Numbers

As soon as Christmas songs start filling the air, Netflix has historically outperformed its peers in the S&P 500.

Data from Seasonax shows that the streaming giant has rallied an average of 14.1% from early December through the end of January, with a median return of 11%.

Over the last 20 years, Netflix has closed this two-month period in the green 80% of the time, or 16 out of 20 years.

Let's break that down further:

  • Average return in positive years: +24.98%
  • Average loss in negative years: -20.64%
  • Best performance: +117.42% (Dec. 2012 – Jan. 2013)
  • Worst performance: -30.71% (Dec. 2021 – Jan. 2022)

For perspective, Netflix has delivered double-digit returns 12 times during this period, making it a seasonal gem for traders looking to capitalize on recurring market patterns.

Here’s a snapshot of Netflix’s performance from early December through late January over the last 20 years:

Start Date Start Price ($) End Date End Price ($) Profit (%)
Dec. 2, 2004 1.62 Jan. 31, 2005 1.64 +1.33%
Dec. 2, 2005 3.96 Jan. 31, 2006 3.94 -0.51%
Dec. 4, 2006 4.13 Jan. 31, 2007 3.26 -21.15%
Dec. 3, 2007 3.40 Jan. 31, 2008 3.59 +5.76%
Dec. 2, 2008 3.32 Feb. 2, 2009 5.28 +59.20%
Dec. 2, 2009 8.43 Feb. 1, 2010 8.72 +3.44%
Dec. 2, 2010 27.63 Jan. 31, 2011 30.58 +10.68%
Dec. 2, 2011 9.48 Jan. 31, 2012 17.17 +81.11%
Dec. 3, 2012 10.86 Jan. 31, 2013 23.61 +117.42%
Dec. 2, 2013 51.99 Jan. 31, 2014 58.48 +12.48%
Dec. 2, 2014 50.33 Feb. 2, 2015 63.01 +25.19%
Dec. 2, 2015 128.93 Feb. 1, 2016 94.09 -27.02%
Dec. 2, 2016 120.81 Jan. 31, 2017 140.71 +16.47%
Dec. 4, 2017 184.04 Jan. 31, 2018 270.30 +46.87%
Dec. 3, 2018 290.30 Jan. 31, 2019 339.50 +16.95%
Dec. 2, 2019 309.99 Jan. 31, 2020 345.09 +11.32%
Dec. 2, 2020 503.38 Feb. 1, 2021 539.04 +7.08%
Dec. 2, 2021 616.47 Jan. 31, 2022 427.14 -30.71%
Dec. 2, 2022 320.41 Jan. 31, 2023 353.86 +10.44%
Dec. 4, 2023 453.90 Jan. 31, 2024 564.11 +24.28%
Data: Seasonax

Election Year Edge: A Netflix Specialty

Netflix's late-year success is even more pronounced during U.S. presidential election cycles. In the last five election years, the stock has never posted a loss during the December-January period.

Instead, it delivered an average return of 34.33%, with a maximum profit of 117.4% during the 2012-2013 cycle.

Here's how Netflix performed during recent election years:

Start Date Start Price ($) End Date End Price ($) Profit (%)
Dec. 2, 2004 1.62 Jan. 31, 2005 1.64 +1.33%
Dec. 2, 2008 3.32 Feb. 2, 2009 5.28 +59.20%
Dec. 3, 2012 10.86 Jan. 31, 2013 23.61 +117.42%
Dec. 2, 2016 120.81 Jan. 31, 2017 140.71 +16.47%
Dec. 2, 2020 503.38 Feb. 1, 2021 539.04 +7.08%
Data: Seasonax

Read also: S&P 500 At 6,666 In 2025? Bank Of America Predicts ‘Another Good Year For Equities’

Why Netflix Is the Holiday Stock You Can't Ignore

Whether it's delivering triple-digit gains in its best years or remaining largely resilient in bearish conditions, the streaming giant has been a reliable performer for traders seeking late-year opportunities.

So, why does Netflix shine so brightly in December and January? Several factors might play a role:

  • Holiday binge-watching: As people gather around TVs during the holidays, Netflix tends to dominate consumer attention.
  • New-year optimism: Investors often position themselves for strong earnings results, driving demand for high-growth stocks like Netflix.
  • Seasonal market rally: The broader "Santa Claus rally" typically provides tailwinds for stocks with positive sentiment.

Now Read:

Image: Shutterstock

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